Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
642 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

The threat for severe storms over the next 30 hours will be the main
forecast challenge.

As of 19Z, an area of low pressure is located near Pierre with a
warm front draped east-southeast across the region. With dew
points in the 60s, surface based cape values exceed 3K J/KG.
While 0-6 KM bulk shear values are lacking, deep layer shear is
around 25-30 knots. CAMS still support convection developing in
south- central SD within the next few hours. These storms should
track northeastward through this evening, pushing into North
Dakota around 3Z. With high DCAPE values, damaging winds are
possible with these storms. Hail is also possible.

After the first round of convection this evening, attention then
turns westward. Thunderstorms currently developing over Wyoming
should push across western SD after 0Z, potentially reaching our CWA
around 3Z. These storms should progress eastward across the CWA with
diminish intensity expected. There could be lingering pcpn in the
eastern CWA Thursday morning.

The NAM, as well as the HREF seems to suggest a break in convection
Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon before additional storms
develop along a cold front. As of now, convective initiation looks
best along the James River Valley after 21Z. There storms should
push eastward across the rest of the CWA Thursday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

A shortwave trough and surface cold front should be on their way out
of the area by Thursday evening, taking a very moist environment
with them. Before that happens, thunderstorms are possible across
eastern SD and west central MN through Thursday evening. An unstable
atmosphere will provide the potential for strong updrafts with any
activity. Shear does not look to be too favorable, however large
hail and damaging winds will be possible. By Friday, a Western U.S.
upper level ridge begins makings its presence known by spreading
east towards our across our CWA, resulting in much above
temperatures. This will be the story through Memorial Day Weekend
into early next week as well. Models indicate highs in the 90s
during this time. Meanwhile, a large and slow-moving upper-level
trough across the western U.S. will churn towards the High Plains.
Pieces of energy may begin ejecting northeastward by late Saturday,
leading to on-and-off thunderstorm chances. The trough itself may
begin working into the High Plains by Tuesday/Wednesday, leading
generally better precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Any exception
would be during thunderstorms, which are possible across the area
through early this evening and then again later tonight (mainly
KPIR/KMBG). After a break in precipitation chances Thursday
morning, thunderstorm chances return across the area (mainly
KABR/KATY) Thursday afternoon and evening.

There will also be a low level jet around tonight, which could
create some low level wind shear at times.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Lueck
AVIATION...Dorn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
348 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-242100-
Traverse-Big Stone-Corson-Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-
Roberts-Walworth-Edmunds-Day-Dewey-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Clark-
Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Jones-
Lyman-Buffalo-
348 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018 /248 PM MDT Wed May 23 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota, and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible through this evening, with large hail
and damaging winds being the main threats especially along and
west of the James River Valley

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Strong to severe storms are possible across eastern South Dakota
and west central Minnesota Thursday afternoon and evening. Large
hail and strong winds are the main threats.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be necessary late this afternoon and
evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
506 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

SDZ006-232230-
Brown SD-
506 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL BROWN COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

At 505 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Westport, or 12 miles north of Aberdeen, moving north at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Frederick, Columbia, Westport, Barnard, Sand Lake Wildlife Refuge and
Houghton.

LAT...LON 4556 9829 4552 9842 4557 9854 4585 9855
      4582 9814
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 185DEG 26KT 4564 9841

Telken

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
521 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

SDZ011-232245-
Day SD-
521 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DAY COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM
CDT...

At 521 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Butler, or 11 miles west of Webster, moving north at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bristol, Roslyn, Pierpont and Butler.

LAT...LON 4519 9768 4525 9786 4556 9791 4551 9742
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 189DEG 32KT 4529 9774

Telken

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
552 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             BRISTOL                 45.35N 97.75W
05/23/2018  M1.00 INCH       DAY                SD   PUBLIC

            REPORT AND PHOTO PROVIDED VIA FACEBOOK.

&&

JT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
629 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

SDZ006-240000-
Brown SD-
629 PM CDT WED MAY 23 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BROWN COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM CDT...

At 628 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Barnard, or 18 miles south of Ellendale, moving north at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Frederick and Barnard.

LAT...LON 4566 9835 4567 9853 4594 9861 4593 9825
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 181DEG 22KT 4575 9845

Lueck

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