Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
921 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Showers and thunderstorms continue from the southwest to the north
central part of the CWA as of 02Z. The storms do not appear to be
producing much hail anymore, but still seeing strong winds and
very heavy rain with some of them. CAM solutions show this
activity coming to and end late tonight, with additional
precipitation development expected on Friday. Other that
adjustments to POPs and weather, no changes made to the forecast
this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Several rounds of precipitation/thunderstorms are possible in the
short term as a western CONUS trough continues towards the High
Plains. Ejecting shortwave energy will serve as the catalyst for
thunderstorm development this evening across the area, and some of
these storms could become severe along/west of the Missouri River.
This is where the best combination of CAPE, which has climbed above
2000 J/kg this afternoon, and bulk shear of around 30 kts exists.
CAMs are in strong agreement in developing a line of at least broken
convection across western South Dakota by 00Z Friday. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary threats. These storms reach the
Missouri River by 04Z, however the environment will have become much
less favorable as MUCAPE values dip to less than 500 J/kg east of
the Missouri. Confidence is low that any storms will be able to
maintain severe limits by midnight, and they may well dissipate
almost entirely as they enter the James River Valley. Have
maintained low POPs across portions of Northeastern SD during the
overnight/Friday morning timeframe for the time being.

A moist atmosphere persists across the area Friday. The Ensemble SA
Table indicates precipitable water values in the 97.5-99 percentile
for this time of year across portions of the CWA from 12Z Friday to
12Z Saturday. Combined this with a slow-moving area of low pressure,
and thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall through this
period. Those that train over the same areas would be of particular
concern. Storm development, after a lull in the morning, appears
most likely on Friday afternoon/evening from the James Valley to
west central MN and southwestward towards Jones county and across
south central SD. Thanks in part to a rebound in CAPE of 1000-2000+
J/kg, some of these storms could be on the strong to severe side.
However, the best shear is displaced to the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

To begin the period, an upper level low organizes itself over
Colorado and attempts to move eastward over Kansas/Nebraska. Showers
and sub-severe thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of
the CWA very early Saturday morning into Saturday evening. At which
point, high pressure pushes in forcing the low further south and
east.  Some lingering rain showers are possible in the southeast
boundaries of the CWA through Sunday.

Beyond Sunday, a ridge builds into the region keeping things mostly
dry for Monday and Tuesday.  A 700 mb low in Montana pushes into the
Dakotas Thursday, at which point an associated shortwave off the low
creates another chance of precipitation Thursday into Thursday
night. Temperatures drop to below average for the weekend, but
recover to around or slightly above average for the work week as
warm air advects into the region Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Showers and thunderstorms will affect the northwest and north
central part of the area this evening, with another round of
showers and storms expected to move in and affect mainly the
western half of the CWA later tonight. Some of the storms may be
strong to severe. Additional precipitation is expected Friday
afternoon. For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail, but
IFR/MVFR cigs and vsbys are possible with the stronger storms.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...Lueck
LONG TERM...Telken
AVIATION...Parkin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
328 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

MNZ039-046-SDZ008-020>023-180830-
Traverse-Big Stone-Roberts-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-
328 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota and northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are possible late Friday. Severe weather is
unlikely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048-180830-
Corson-Campbell-Walworth-Dewey-Potter-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Jones-
Lyman-
328 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018 /228 AM MDT Thu May 17 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central South
Dakota and north central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to form west river and move east in the
late afternoon and evening hours. There is the risk for severe
weather west river, with large hail and strong winds being the
main threat. Storms are expected to be weakening as they move east
in the evening and the threat for severe weather diminishes
rapidly as storms reach the Missouri valley.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Another round of storms is expected to develop in the area Friday
afternoon. Widespread severe weather is unlikely but there may be
a few stronger storms with hail and strong winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

SDZ005>007-010-011-017>019-036-037-051-180830-
McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Edmunds-Day-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Hyde-Hand-
Buffalo-
328 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central South
Dakota, north central South Dakota, and northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Weak thunderstorms are possible early this morning. Severe weather
is not anticipated with any of these storms.

Storms could move back into the area late tonight into early
Friday. These storms will likely be dissipating and severe weather
is not anticipated with this round of convection.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Another round of storms is expected to develop in the area Friday
afternoon. Widespread severe weather is unlikely but there may be
a few stronger storms with hail and strong winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Connelly

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
857 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SSW WHITLOCKS BAY REC 45.01N 100.29W
05/17/2018  M64 MPH          POTTER             SD   MESONET

&&

JT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
900 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 PM     TSTM WND GST     13 NNW SANSARC          44.67N 101.14W
05/17/2018  M80 MPH          STANLEY            SD   MESONET

&&

JT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
925 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SE COW CREEK REC AREA 44.55N 100.49W
05/17/2018  E60 MPH          SULLY              SD   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

NWS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
937 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S MURDO               43.86N 100.71W
05/17/2018  E70 MPH          JONES              SD   MESONET

&&

NWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
944 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE PIERRE             44.39N 100.30W
05/17/2018  E61 MPH          HUGHES             SD   MESONET

            PIERRE ASOS.

&&

NWS