Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
355 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

Several rounds of precipitation/thunderstorms are possible in the
short term as a western CONUS trough continues towards the High
Plains. Ejecting shortwave energy will serve as the catalyst for
thunderstorm development this evening across the area, and some of
these storms could become severe along/west of the Missouri River.
This is where the best combination of CAPE, which has climbed above
2000 J/kg this afternoon, and bulk shear of around 30 kts exists.
CAMs are in strong agreement in developing a line of at least broken
convection across western South Dakota by 00Z Friday. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary threats. These storms reach the
Missouri River by 04Z, however the environment will have become much
less favorable as MUCAPE values dip to less than 500 J/kg east of
the Missouri. Confidence is low that any storms will be able to
maintain severe limits by midnight, and they may well dissipate
almost entirely as they enter the James River Valley. Have
maintained low POPs across portions of Northeastern SD during the
overnight/Friday morning timeframe for the time being.

A moist atmosphere persists across the area Friday. The Ensemble SA
Table indicates precipitable water values in the 97.5-99 percentile
for this time of year across portions of the CWA from 12Z Friday to
12Z Saturday. Combined this with a slow-moving area of low pressure,
and thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rainfall through this
period. Those that train over the same areas would be of particular
concern. Storm development, after a lull in the morning, appears
most likely on Friday afternoon/evening from the James Valley to
west central MN and southwestward towards Jones county and across
south central SD. Thanks in part to a rebound in CAPE of 1000-2000+
J/kg, some of these storms could be on the strong to severe side.
However, the best shear is displaced to the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

To begin the period, an upper level low organizes itself over
Colorado and attempts to move eastward over Kansas/Nebraska. Showers
and sub-severe thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of
the CWA very early Saturday morning into Saturday evening. At which
point, high pressure pushes in forcing the low further south and
east.  Some lingering rain showers are possible in the southeast
boundaries of the CWA through Sunday.

Beyond Sunday, a ridge builds into the region keeping things mostly
dry for Monday and Tuesday.  A 700 mb low in Montana pushes into the
Dakotas Thursday, at which point an associated shortwave off the low
creates another chance of precipitation Thursday into Thursday
night. Temperatures drop to below average for the weekend, but
recover to around or slightly above average for the work week as
warm air advects into the region Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018

VFR conditions are expected for all terminals, except KMBG
towards the end of the TAF period, which may see some MVFR
ceilings. Potentially severe thunderstorms are expected to move
into KMBG and KPIR this evening. Low level windshear is expected
during the overnight and early morning hours at all TAF sites.
KMBG and KPIR appear to have greater LLWS around midnight, while
the more eastern sites of KABR and KATY hold onto their LLWS until
shortly after sunrise.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Lueck
LONG TERM...Telken
AVIATION...Telken

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
328 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

MNZ039-046-SDZ008-020>023-180830-
Traverse-Big Stone-Roberts-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-Deuel-
328 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota and northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are possible late Friday. Severe weather is
unlikely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048-180830-
Corson-Campbell-Walworth-Dewey-Potter-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Jones-
Lyman-
328 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018 /228 AM MDT Thu May 17 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central South
Dakota and north central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected to form west river and move east in the
late afternoon and evening hours. There is the risk for severe
weather west river, with large hail and strong winds being the
main threat. Storms are expected to be weakening as they move east
in the evening and the threat for severe weather diminishes
rapidly as storms reach the Missouri valley.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Another round of storms is expected to develop in the area Friday
afternoon. Widespread severe weather is unlikely but there may be
a few stronger storms with hail and strong winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

SDZ005>007-010-011-017>019-036-037-051-180830-
McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Edmunds-Day-Faulk-Spink-Clark-Hyde-Hand-
Buffalo-
328 AM CDT Thu May 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central South
Dakota, north central South Dakota, and northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Weak thunderstorms are possible early this morning. Severe weather
is not anticipated with any of these storms.

Storms could move back into the area late tonight into early
Friday. These storms will likely be dissipating and severe weather
is not anticipated with this round of convection.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Another round of storms is expected to develop in the area Friday
afternoon. Widespread severe weather is unlikely but there may be
a few stronger storms with hail and strong winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Connelly

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1102 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

SDZ005-171645-
McPherson SD-
1102 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MCPHERSON COUNTY
UNTIL 1145 AM CDT...

At 1101 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Eureka, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eureka, Long Lake and New Town Corner.

LAT...LON 4570 9914 4570 9965 4587 9968 4594 9933
      4594 9918
TIME...MOT...LOC 1601Z 261DEG 25KT 4579 9956

Lueck

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
153 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

SDZ005-171945-
McPherson SD-
153 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MCPHERSON COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM CDT...

At 153 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Long Lake, or 15 miles south of Ashley, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Long Lake and New Town Corner.

LAT...LON 4576 9890 4570 9950 4583 9954 4594 9931
      4594 9895
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 235DEG 24KT 4582 9928

SD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
404 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     HAIL             EUREKA                  45.77N 99.62W
05/17/2018  E1.75 INCH       MCPHERSON          SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
418 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     HAIL             EUREKA                  45.77N 99.62W
05/17/2018  E1.75 INCH       MCPHERSON          SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
422 PM CDT THU MAY 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     HAIL             EUREKA                  45.77N 99.62W
05/17/2018  E1.25 INCH       MCPHERSON          SD   PUBLIC

&&

NWS