Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Aberdeen, SD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
640 PM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

The Heat Advisory for the far eastern part of the area has been
cancelled. Also, see updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Convection remains the main challenge for the short range. It
appears that another decent mid level wave/speed max will lift out
across the high plains this evening and overnight. Decent deep layer
shear will combine with moderate amounts of instability/moisture to
produce some thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are already forming in
northern WY and southern MT.  That activity will likely combine with
storms forming over the Black Hills this evening, and then push east
toward the Missouri River valley this evening.  A number of CAM
solutions reflect this thinking. Svr chances are probably the
highest over the west river counties as once activity gets east of
the Missouri River, it should run into a less enthusiastic
environment, with increasing MLCIN and really little to no LLJ.

Over the far eastern CWA, a warm EML continues to produce a cap
over the sfc front. Therefore, suspect there won't be much action
over this region tonight, unless developing LLJ can provide enough
lift over parts of mainly western Minnesota to get elevated
storms to fire. Lastly, temperatures will be cooler this weekend
as the sfc front over the east continues to gradually settle to
the south through Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Looks like the flow pattern across the CONUS will undergo a
transition during the period. A decent looking wave will exit the
region on Sunday, as mid level ridging begins to build across the
eastern CONUS. That ridging aloft will gradually expand to the west
into the central part of America by the middle of next week. As the
ridge builds, the heat and humidity will return to the region. There
will exist some normal diurnal chances for rain, but the thermal
ridge aloft will probably keep storm coverage fairly low for mid to
late next week. Temperatures will start the period about normal,
then will trend to above normal next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail across the area
tonight and through the day Saturday. The exception will be with
an area of showers and thunderstorms expected to move across the
area from around mid evening through the early morning hours.
Periods of MVFR vsby will be possible with the stronger storms.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Parkin

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1247 PM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>036-045-048-051-301800-
Corson-Campbell-Walworth-Dewey-Potter-Stanley-Sully-Hughes-Hyde-
Jones-Lyman-Buffalo-
1247 PM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018 /1147 AM MDT Fri Jun 29 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central South
Dakota and north central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and storms are expected again this evening and
overnight. Isolated severe storms are possible, with hail and wind
being the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Showers and storms are possible through early next week. Chances
for severe weather appear low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible.

MNZ046-SDZ021-023-301800-
Big Stone-Grant-Deuel-
1247 PM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota and northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

High heat indices are expected this afternoon and early evening
due to hot temperatures, and high relative humidity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Showers and storms are possible through early next week. Chances
for severe weather appear low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

MNZ039-SDZ005>008-010-011-017>020-022-037-301800-
Traverse-McPherson-Brown-Marshall-Roberts-Edmunds-Day-Faulk-Spink-
Clark-Codington-Hamlin-Hand-
1247 PM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota, central South Dakota, north central South Dakota, and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms are possible through tonight. The threat
for severe weather is only slight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Showers and storms are possible through early next week. Chances
for severe weather appear low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

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