Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
226 PM MDT Sun Apr 29 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Sharp trough moving into the Great Basin tonight will lift northeast
Monday, sweeping most of the moisture out of NM. The next storm will
organize over the southern Great Basin Monday night and Tuesday
before lifting northeast Wednesday, with the trough axis crossing NM
Thursday. A pretty good swath of precipitation should impact western
and north central areas Tuesday night through Wednesday night,
diminishing over northern areas Thursday. Huge differences in the
long range models as to what happens next weekend. GFS has a storm
passing to our south while the ECMWF and CMC have weak ridging.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms fighting hard to develop over the eastern
plains from Capulin to Roy. Santa Rosa, western De Baca to Roswell.
The farther east they go the stronger they will be, with a few storms
possibly going severe close to the TX border late this afternoon and
early this evening. West and central areas will be dry and comfortably
cool tonight.

A dry, breezy to windy and mild day Monday, setting the stage for
fire weather concerns across central and eastern areas. Winds will
reach advisory levels in the northeast.

A closed low will form over Utah Monday, organizing and deepening as
it heads south to near or west of Las Vegas, NV by late Tuesday. It
will lift northeast and weaken Wednesday, with a trough crossing NM
Thursday. West through north central regions of NM will be favored
for convection starting Tuesday night, and continuing into Thursday.
Temperatures will gradually lower from Tuesday through Thursday.
Breezy to windy conditions in central and eastern areas will mean
more fire weather concerns through Thursday.

Friday will be dry and warmer. Then the models diverge on next
weekends forecast. The GFS develops a big closed low over Baja CA
Saturday, drawing moisture north ahead of it, which results in decent
precipitation over the west and south central through the weekend.
The ECMWF and CMC have a ridge over the state, although the CMC has
a decent amount of QPF from return flow moisture by Sunday over the
west. Cut back on the Superblend POPs Saturday into early next week,
which seemed to favor the GFS and not factor in the dry ECMWF.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...

The critical fire weather pattern remains in place with fire growth
highly likely through Wednesday. SW winds have already strengthened
over western NM reaching advisory at Gallup, with very high MixHgts
present over the entire state. A line of convection has begun just
east of the ctrl mtn chain where dry ltg and gusty erratic downburst
winds will be the main concern through this evening. Convective
tstorms will individually move to NE with the line of storms itself
shifting east into TX by this evening.

The dry-line shifts east Monday with critical fire weather expanding
over eastern NM. MixHgts remain very high with ventrates also
remaining excellent. Haines6 will also be present over much the
state tomorrow, with MinRH likely dipping below 10% state wide
except atop the northern mtn peaks. SW winds will also expand east
with the strongest sustained winds 25-30kts across the NE plains of
NM.

By Tuesday, an upper low moving over the lower CO river basin
will bring another windy day across much of the state. The one
limiting factor for higher wind speeds will be high cloud cover
moving over the state limiting mixing. Regardless, critical fire
weather conditions are expected across much eastern and central NM
again Tuesday afternoon. The west will likely see an hour or two of
critical Tuesday afternoon as well. Another round of critical is
likely across the east Wednesday as the low begins to open up over
AZ. Some wetting precip is also likely across western and
northwestern NM Wednesday with chances for showers lingering through
Thursday across the northern mtns.

Long range, the forecast becomes very unclear with model divergence
very high. The GFS closes off a new low over the Baja spinning up
beneficial Gulf moisture into NM, while the ECMWF does not and we
stay dry into next weekend. So stay tuned as the forecast evolves
beyond Thursday.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Winds are picking up and will peak at around 20-30kts for most
locations with gusts up to 40kts possible this afternoon. Areas of
BLDU could reduce visibilities at times for western locations,
including KGUP, KFMN, KGNT this afternoon.Sct cumulus field has
already begun building over the central mtn chain with a few
lightning strikes already observed in the cluster moving off the
Sacramento's. Sct tstorms are expected across the east, potentially
bringing strong downburst winds to KROW, KCVS, and KCVN this
afternoon and early evening. Convection should move off into TX
entirely by 03-06Z. South winds remain strong across the east
overnight into Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  44  72  42  70 /   0   0   5   5
Dulce...........................  39  67  38  67 /   0   0   5  10
Cuba............................  40  67  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  38  71  34  68 /   0   0   0   5
El Morro........................  38  66  35  64 /   0   0   0  10
Grants..........................  39  71  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  38  69  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  44  77  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  35  62  30  61 /   0   0   5   5
Los Alamos......................  45  68  44  67 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  43  67  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  39  64  34  64 /   5   0   0   0
Red River.......................  36  54  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  32  62  26  62 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  37  70  33  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  41  66  37  66 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  44  74  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  44  68  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  41  72  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  47  76  48  74 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  50  77  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  46  79  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  49  78  47  76 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  40  80  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  48  78  48  76 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  50  82  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  44  71  46  69 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  41  74  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  36  76  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  40  71  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  43  74  44  71 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  49  76  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  44  72  44  69 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  42  73  37  73 /   5   0   0   5
Raton...........................  39  76  35  76 /   5   0   0   5
Springer........................  39  76  36  75 /   5   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  42  71  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  49  80  46  78 /  10   5   5   5
Roy.............................  46  75  43  74 /  10   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  49  81  48  82 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  45  80  45  78 /   5   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  53  86  50  85 /  20   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  52  83  49  82 /  30   5   5   5
Portales........................  52  83  50  83 /  30   5   5   5
Fort Sumner.....................  51  84  50  82 /  10   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  51  89  50  86 /  10   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  50  80  49  78 /   5   0   0   0
Elk.............................  47  79  48  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for the following
zones... NMZ101-103-105>107-109.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for
the following zones... NMZ103>109.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ502-505-527-530.

&&

40/24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
312 AM MDT Sun Apr 29 2018

NMZ501>540-301130-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
312 AM MDT Sun Apr 29 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong to severe storms are possible near the Texas border
this afternoon and evening, with large hail and damaging winds being
the primary threats.

A red flag warning is in effect this afternoon and early evening for
much of central New Mexico where low relative humidity values
combined with strong south winds will create critical fire weather
conditions.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Critical fire weather conditions are possible Monday afternoon and
early evening across a larger portion of central and northern New
Mexico, with windier conditions forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

33

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
432 PM MDT SUN APR 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             2 NE CLOVIS             34.43N 103.18W
04/29/2018  E1.75 INCH       CURRY              NM   PUBLIC

            SKYLIGHTS BROKEN NEAR VIVIAN AND CAIN

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800610

GUYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
433 PM MDT SUN APR 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 ENE TUCUMCARI         35.21N 103.61W
04/29/2018  M61 MPH          QUAY               NM   ASOS

            KTCC ASOS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800611

JLS