Severe Thunderstorm Warning 283, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1134 AM MDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Sct to nmrs showers and tstms developing over the higher terrain at
17Z to drift slowly into the lower elevations. Cell motion may
generally be from west to east but expect slow and erratic motions as
well and as outflow boundaries develop. Brief MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys
along with small hail and wnd gusts to around 40kt possible with the
stronger storms. A few strong to severe storms with large hail and
wnd gusts to 50kt possible ne NM. Short term models suggest a large
area of convection to persist aft 18/06Z over the eastern plains as
it sags southward.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...538 AM MDT Fri Aug 17 2018...
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Overall the morning is quiet with a dissipating sct-bkn cloud deck
over portions of western and central NM. A small batch of low clouds
is also working its way into far northeast NM and could bring IFR
cigs to KCAO. Friday's afternoon convection is expected to see an
increase in coverage over what we saw Thursday. Storms forming over
the Sangre's are expected to move off over far northeast NM, where a
few severe storms are likely to produce strong downburst winds, large
hail, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. Expected MVFR-IFR
conditions during the passage of these storms favoring Colfax,
Union, Mora, and Harding Counties. Elsewhere, storms will be less
intense but also slower.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...307 AM MDT Fri Aug 17 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Today will feature scattered to numerous slow-moving showers and
storms with locally heavy rainfall. There is an elevated risk for
flash flooding today along with a few strong to severe storms over
the eastern plains. Saturday will be another active day but with the
focus more over eastern New Mexico. Much drier air will move into
central and western New Mexico Sunday and Monday and lead to a big
decrease in storm coverage. Isolated storms are still possible over
the eastern plains and near the central high terrain. Moisture will
begin trickling back into the area Tuesday through Friday while the
upper level high center becomes established near the Arizona state
line.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A very active day is on tap with some of the deepest moisture of the
season in place across the forecast area. The NAM/GFS PWAT at 00Z is
progged near 1.3" at KABQ with abundant instability and slow storm
motion. The risk for flash flooding appears highest along the east
slopes of the central mt chain and around the southwest mts where
nearly stationary storms are expected. There is a marginal risk for
severe storms across the northeast plains where strong instability
will be in place. Activity will linger well into the night across
the plains.

Saturday will be an interesting day as a much drier mid and upper
level airmass begins invading the area on the nose of an approaching
upper level jet. The marginal risk for severe storms will continue
over northeastern NM. Showers and storms are likely near the Cont
Divide as well along the leading edge of the drier airmass. Storm
motion will be faster so the risk for flash flooding will be mainly
across the eastern plains.

PWATs fall to an astounding 0.35" at KABQ by Sunday. A back door
frontal boundary will slide southwest across eastern NM however the
very dry mid and upper level airmass will cap storm development. Gap
winds Sunday night in the Rio Grande Valley will transport low level
moisture westward to the Cont Dvd Monday. Storm development will
however remain limited again as very dry mid and upper air mixes
back to the surface.

Extended guidance is now more consistent with a 597dm H5 high center
firmly in place over central NM Tuesday through Saturday while mid
and low level moisture slowly trickles back into the area. Several
shortwaves are noted rounding the eastern edge of the upper high
center next week. This will allow for periodic active periods across
the east while central and western NM rely on moisture recycling for
storms.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High terrain storms are expected again today, with strong-severe
storms possible over northeast NM and slower moving storms over
western and central NM in the evening.

Saturday will see change with the upper high sliding west of NM and
drier air beginning to filter into the Four Corners during the
evening. Strong to severe storms are expected again over far
northeast NM, capable of producing strong downburst winds, heavy
rainfall, large hail, and frequent lightning. Dry air behind the
western front pushes to the east-central highlands and into southern
NM Sunday, with a backdoor front protecting more moisture laden air
across the eastern third of the state. Sub-15% RH is likely across
western NM Sunday afternoon. Storm coverage will be noticeably lower
Sunday, with only a few storms likely over the east slopes of the
central mtn chain. Smoke and haze from CA/OR wildfires is likely to
follow behind the western front into western NM Sunday and Monday.

The backdoor front wins out Monday, replenishing moisture into
western NM except near the Four Corners. The upper high redevelops
over the state Monday, with a better tap into monsoon moisture
increasing storm coverage over western NM Tuesday. Daily rounds of
afternoon summer time storms look to continue late next week,
however model differences with the placement of the high lower
confidence on whether the coverage will be decent or more
widespread.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
333 AM MDT Fri Aug 17 2018

NMZ501>540-181100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
333 AM MDT Fri Aug 17 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Slow moving showers and thunderstorms today and tonight will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall rates and localized flash
flooding just about anywhere across the state. There is also a
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms over northeastern New Mexico
where large hail and damaging winds are the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday
Scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding across eastern
New Mexico. There is also a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms
across eastern New Mexico where large hail and damaging winds are
the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Guyer