Severe Thunderstorm Warning 268, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
549 PM MDT Thu Aug 9 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A healthy crop of tstms have formed over the northern and western
high terrain. Tstms will generally move south into valley locales
producing one to two hour long periods of MVFR conditions.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing moderate to large hail,
frequent cloud to ground lightning, and gusty erratic winds. VCTS
can also produce strong gusty erratic winds. The eastern plains are
expected to also get their fair share of tstm activity between now
and 09Z. Areas from KLVS to KSXU to KTCC could see a passing tstm
between 01Z to 04Z, with storm coverage pushing south to KCVN to KROW
03Z to 06Z. Tstm activity is expected to fully diminish by the early
morning hours, with remnant high cirrus over much of the state.
Tomorrow will see another round of afternoon tstms forming over the
higher terrain and potentially along any sfc boundaries over eastern
NM.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...246 PM MDT Thu Aug 9 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
An active end to the work-week is underway, with thunderstorms
developing further west across the state compared to the past few
days. Storms this evening will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding. More storms are forecast
Friday, with high temperatures below normal thanks to rain-cooling
and additional cloud cover. Look for continued rain chances through
the weekend, though trending down some from Friday. High pressure
will strengthen over the region next week, leading to an uptrend in
temperatures. However, decent chances for storms look to persist for
the foreseeable future.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper high is pulling away, as evidenced by the pressure height
falls noted on the 12Z upper air analysis, and was centered over
Nevada at 12Z. PWATs are trending up across central and western New
Mexico and were near 1" on the KABQ upper air sounding this morning.
An increase in storm coverage is expected this afternoon, especially
across central and west central New Mexico where storms have not been
as plentiful that past couple of days. South or southwest steering
flow will take storms off of the central mountain chain over the
Santa Fe and Albuquerque Metros this afternoon/evening. Both the 12Z
and 18Z NAM, and the last several runs of the HRRR show the eastern
highlands, Estancia Valley, the Sandia/Manzano Mountains and perhaps
portions of the south central highlands getting hammered this evening
and these are the areas where we have our highest evening PoPs. The
Flash Flood Watch is still in effect and will be left as-is this
forecast cycle given no compelling evidence for change. Another crop
of storms with scattered to numerous coverage is forecast for
Friday, but instability will be more limited with daytime
temperatures forecast to be 3 to 8 degrees cooler than today's. Look
for a downturn Saturday, thanks in-part to some drying of the
atmosphere. Sunday may tick back up in terms of storm coverage, with
the upper high over Utah and a weak upper low over the TX Panhandle.
Northerly steering flow on Sunday would once again take storms off
the higher terrain late day over the Santa Fe and Albuquerque Metros.

Both the 12Z operational runs of the ECMWF and GFS show the upper
high building over AZ/NM next week, leading to an uptrend in
temperatures back to above normal most areas by Wednesday or
Thursday. The GFS shows a weaker high, with daily rounds of storms
persisting. Our forecast is closer to the GFS at this time.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be found over
much of the forecast area for the remainder of the day and into
tonight, especially along and east of the central mountain chain.
After receiving wetting rainfall in several locales, tonight's RH
recovery should be good to excellent across most of the state. A
continued moist southeasterly flow at the surface should keep
sufficient moisture in place for more scattered to numerous storms
on Friday. Temperatures  will run a few to several degrees below
average Friday afternoon in all areas except the northwest plateau.

This weekend high pressure aloft will stretch about a southwest to
northeast oriented axis, wrapping dry air into northern NM on
Saturday. A weak upper low will take shape over west TX, keeping
some mid level moisture in far eastern NM, but overall a downtrend
in storm coverage is expected Saturday. Temperatures will not alter
much Saturday, but could gain a degree or two on Sunday. A
disturbance aloft is then expected to enter northern NM Sunday with
additional storms accompanying and eventually spreading into the
western tier of the state through the evening. The weather next week
will be characterized by a gradual exit of the weak low over west TX
while high pressure remains ill-defined, struggling to re-establish
itself over the Great Basin. This will keep daily thunderstorm
chances going with temperatures approaching normalcy.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM MDT Friday for the following zones...
NMZ508-512>515-521>523-528-529-532-533-537.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
310 AM MDT Thu Aug 9 2018

NMZ501>540-101100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
310 AM MDT Thu Aug 9 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across New Mexico
this afternoon through the overnight hours. Storm motion will be slow
and enough instability will exist for heavy rainfall. Flash flooding
will be possible, especially on areas that have received recent heavy
rains, as well as burn scars. A few severe storms are also possible
today, favoring areas in the vicinity of the central highlands.
Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue on Friday. Locally
heavy rain and flash flooding is possible, especially where soils are
saturated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts, flooding, hail
and strong wind gusts through the National Weather Service
Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.
You can also submit storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or
via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

34

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
626 PM MDT THU AUG 9 2018

NMZ528-530-531-100100-
Far Northeast Highlands-Union County-Harding County-
626 PM MDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL HARDING...WEST
CENTRAL UNION AND SOUTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MDT...

At 626 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gladstone, or 30 miles south of Des Moines, moving south at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will
also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gladstone, Farley and Yates.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3642 10406 3638 10384 3612 10388 3618 10418
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 013DEG 16KT 3633 10398

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
652 PM MDT THU AUG 9 2018

NMZ506-507-100115-
West Central Mountains-West Central Highlands-
652 PM MDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CIBOLA...EAST
CENTRAL MCKINLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN SANDOVAL COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM
MDT...

At 652 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Marquez, or 24 miles north of Laguna Pueblo, moving east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will
also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marquez.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3536 10743 3546 10729 3540 10706 3522 10721
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 290DEG 8KT 3539 10728

44

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
658 PM MDT THU AUG 9 2018

NMZ522-100145-
Estancia Valley-
658 PM MDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN TORRANCE COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM MDT...

At 658 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Estancia, moving south at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will
also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Estancia and McIntosh.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 10611 3490 10595 3461 10589 3464 10623
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 358DEG 14KT 3479 10605

CA