Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
246 PM MDT Thu Aug 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An active end to the work-week is underway, with thunderstorms
developing further west across the state compared to the past few
days. Storms this evening will be capable of producing locally heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding. More storms are forecast
Friday, with high temperatures below normal thanks to rain-cooling
and additional cloud cover. Look for continued rain chances through
the weekend, though trending down some from Friday. High pressure
will strengthen over the region next week, leading to an uptrend in
temperatures. However, decent chances for storms look to persist for
the foreseeable future.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper high is pulling away, as evidenced by the pressure height
falls noted on the 12Z upper air analysis, and was centered over
Nevada at 12Z. PWATs are trending up across central and western New
Mexico and were near 1" on the KABQ upper air sounding this morning.
An increase in storm coverage is expected this afternoon, especially
across central and west central New Mexico where storms have not been
as plentiful that past couple of days. South or southwest steering
flow will take storms off of the central mountain chain over the
Santa Fe and Albuquerque Metros this afternoon/evening. Both the 12Z
and 18Z NAM, and the last several runs of the HRRR show the eastern
highlands, Estancia Valley, the Sandia/Manzano Mountains and perhaps
portions of the south central highlands getting hammered this evening
and these are the areas where we have our highest evening PoPs. The
Flash Flood Watch is still in effect and will be left as-is this
forecast cycle given no compelling evidence for change. Another crop
of storms with scattered to numerous coverage is forecast for
Friday, but instability will be more limited with daytime
temperatures forecast to be 3 to 8 degrees cooler than today's. Look
for a downturn Saturday, thanks in-part to some drying of the
atmosphere. Sunday may tick back up in terms of storm coverage, with
the upper high over Utah and a weak upper low over the TX Panhandle.
Northerly steering flow on Sunday would once again take storms off
the higher terrain late day over the Santa Fe and Albuquerque Metros.

Both the 12Z operational runs of the ECMWF and GFS show the upper
high building over AZ/NM next week, leading to an uptrend in
temperatures back to above normal most areas by Wednesday or
Thursday. The GFS shows a weaker high, with daily rounds of storms
persisting. Our forecast is closer to the GFS at this time.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be found over
much of the forecast area for the remainder of the day and into
tonight, especially along and east of the central mountain chain.
After receiving wetting rainfall in several locales, tonight's RH
recovery should be good to excellent across most of the state. A
continued moist southeasterly flow at the surface should keep
sufficient moisture in place for more scattered to numerous storms
on Friday. Temperatures  will run a few to several degrees below
average Friday afternoon in all areas except the northwest plateau.

This weekend high pressure aloft will stretch about a southwest to
northeast oriented axis, wrapping dry air into northern NM on
Saturday. A weak upper low will take shape over west TX, keeping
some mid level moisture in far eastern NM, but overall a downtrend
in storm coverage is expected Saturday. Temperatures will not alter
much Saturday, but could gain a degree or two on Sunday. A
disturbance aloft is then expected to enter northern NM Sunday with
additional storms accompanying and eventually spreading into the
western tier of the state through the evening. The weather next week
will be characterized by a gradual exit of the weak low over west TX
while high pressure remains ill-defined, struggling to re-establish
itself over the Great Basin. This will keep daily thunderstorm
chances going with temperatures approaching normalcy.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Modest, but sufficient, increases in moisture will lead to scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms today and tonight over New
Mexico. High resolution forecast models indicate storms will initiate
off of the higher terrain, especially in the northern mountains of
the state, before drifting very slowly to the south. Storms are
expected to expand over the remainder of the central mountain chain,
parts of the Rio Grande valley, and eastern plains through the late
afternoon and evening hours. Scattered storms will also develop near
the Continental Divide, but will likely be a bit fewer in number
outside of the Gila/southwestern mountains. Storms will be capable of
producing locally heavy downpours with temporary reductions in
visibility/ceiling. Gusty downburst winds and small hail will also
accompany stronger storms. Storms will likely carry on into the early
morning hours Friday, especially in the east to southeastern plains.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  64  91  59  90 /  10  30  30  10
Dulce...........................  54  85  49  87 /  30  40  30  20
Cuba............................  57  80  53  82 /  50  50  50  20
Gallup..........................  56  86  55  85 /  20  30  50  20
El Morro........................  53  78  51  78 /  30  40  50  10
Grants..........................  58  83  56  83 /  30  30  40  10
Quemado.........................  57  78  55  78 /  40  60  60  20
Glenwood........................  62  82  62  82 /  50  70  60  50
Chama...........................  48  78  45  80 /  40  50  40  20
Los Alamos......................  59  78  57  78 /  50  40  30  10
Pecos...........................  56  73  53  73 /  60  60  30  30
Cerro/Questa....................  51  75  48  76 /  40  60  20  20
Red River.......................  47  64  43  66 /  50  60  30  30
Angel Fire......................  42  70  43  71 /  50  50  20  20
Taos............................  52  80  50  81 /  40  60  20  20
Mora............................  51  73  49  73 /  40  50  20  30
Espanola........................  59  83  56  83 /  30  30  20  10
Santa Fe........................  58  78  56  76 /  50  70  30  30
Santa Fe Airport................  56  80  55  81 /  50  50  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  62  84  60  84 /  60  50  30  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  85  64  85 /  50  40  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  62  87  62  87 /  50  30  40  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  63  86  63  87 /  50  20  30  10
Los Lunas.......................  63  88  61  87 /  50  30  40  10
Rio Rancho......................  62  86  62  87 /  50  20  30  10
Socorro.........................  66  86  63  87 /  40  40  40  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  56  77  55  77 /  60  60  40  20
Tijeras.........................  58  80  56  80 /  60  50  40  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  54  80  55  81 /  60  40  30  20
Clines Corners..................  56  78  54  76 /  60  50  30  10
Gran Quivira....................  57  79  54  79 /  60  40  30  20
Carrizozo.......................  63  79  60  80 /  60  50  30  20
Ruidoso.........................  54  72  53  71 /  60  70  50  30
Capulin.........................  54  77  52  75 /  20  20  10  10
Raton...........................  54  81  52  81 /  20  30  10  10
Springer........................  54  81  54  81 /  20  40  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  54  77  53  74 /  40  50  20  10
Clayton.........................  58  84  57  82 /  20  20  10   5
Roy.............................  57  79  56  78 /  40  30  10  10
Conchas.........................  63  87  62  86 /  40  20  10  10
Santa Rosa......................  62  84  61  83 /  40  30  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  64  88  63  86 /  40  20  10  10
Clovis..........................  63  81  61  80 /  40  30  20  20
Portales........................  62  83  61  82 /  40  30  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  66  85  65  84 /  40  30  20  20
Roswell.........................  68  86  66  85 /  40  30  30  30
Picacho.........................  63  77  61  77 /  40  30  40  30
Elk.............................  58  73  57  73 /  40  50  50  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones...
NMZ508-512>515-521>523-528-529-532-533-537.

&&

11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
310 AM MDT Thu Aug 9 2018

NMZ501>540-101100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
310 AM MDT Thu Aug 9 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected across New Mexico
this afternoon through the overnight hours. Storm motion will be slow
and enough instability will exist for heavy rainfall. Flash flooding
will be possible, especially on areas that have received recent heavy
rains, as well as burn scars. A few severe storms are also possible
today, favoring areas in the vicinity of the central highlands.
Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue on Friday. Locally
heavy rain and flash flooding is possible, especially where soils are
saturated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts, flooding, hail
and strong wind gusts through the National Weather Service
Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.
You can also submit storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or
via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
429 PM MDT THU AUG 9 2018

NMZ508-092300-
Southwest Mountains-
429 PM MDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CATRON COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM MDT...

At 429 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Pietown, or 11 miles northwest of Datil, moving south
at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain and frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning will
also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Datil.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3433 10807 3435 10786 3408 10776 3408 10815
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 352DEG 13KT 3427 10796

CA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
431 PM MDT THU AUG 9 2018

NMZ508-092300-
Southwest Mountains-
431 PM MDT THU AUG 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SOCORRO COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM MDT...

At 431 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles northwest of Magdalena, or 25 miles northeast of Datil, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Alamo.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3442 10749 3442 10743 3434 10718 3411 10735
      3428 10759
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 300DEG 11KT 3433 10746

CA

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