Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
534 PM MDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for northeastern NM thru 9
pm. Storms are still developing over the high terrain of the Sangre
de Cristo Mts and near the Colorado border as of 23Z. This activity
will move southeast and organize more into a few severe storms as the
evening progresses. Farther west, convective outflows are forcing a
few SHRA/TSRA into the Rio Grande Valley from KSAF to KABQ. Latest
near-term, hi-res model guidance shows SHRA continuing thru around
08Z within central NM before tapering off overnight. Eastern NM will
likely stay active much of the night as TSRA tapers to an area of
rain with embedded TS thru the early morning. Another active day is
expected Wednesday.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...244 PM MDT Tue Aug 7 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Severe storms are possible over the far northeast highlands and
plains this evening, capable of producing large hail, strong winds,
frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. Storms will generally
move east-southeast toward the eastern New Mexico border late this
evening. Another round of afternoon storms is expected along the
central mountain chain eastward, with above normal temperatures
Wednesday. A backdoor front will bring a gap wind through the central
mountain chain to Albuquerque and Santa Fe Wednesday night. The front
will also replenish moisture in the central valley, enhancing storm
coverage there Thursday. Friday will see the best coverage of storms
over much of the state with high temperatures trending below normal.
Drier conditions are expected this weekend, however spotty storms
will still exist. High temperatures look to remain below normal
through the weekend as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A growing batch of cu are forming over the higher terrain, as is
usual for August over NM. This evening's main concern remains over
the far northeast highlands and adjacent plains where a few severe
thunderstorm cells are likely to develop. Plenty of sfc moisture,
instability of 2000-2500 J/kg of CAPE, and sfc-6km shear of 30-40kts
with NW flow aloft will allow for the potential for large hail,
frequent lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and strong downburst
winds up to 70mph. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is out for Colfax and
Union Counties to 9pm MDT this evening as a result. Storms are
expected to evolve and become more organized as they generally move
east- southeast 20-30mph toward far northeast NM and southeast CO.
Models also continue to show the east- central highlands seeing
convective activity later this afternoon and evening. Outflows from
the strong storms over far northeast NM and the east-central
highlands could collide later this evening over east-central NM
keeping storm activity going well into the night for locales near and
around Tucumcari.

The outflow/backdoor bdry will push further south and west to the
east slopes of the Sangre's and to around I-40 Wednesday. This will
setup another day of afternoon convection there, with a few storms
again likely becoming severe over the northeast plains. The backdoor
push moves through the gaps of the central mtn chain Wednesday night
bringing a gap wind to ABQ and Santa Fe. The added moisture will
provide an uptick in storm coverage over central valley locations
Thursday. High temperatures also fall Thursday behind the front, into
the upper 80s for ABQ. Temperatures fall a few degrees more Friday.
Storm coverage will be at its peak Friday for the state as a whole as
the front pushes past the continental divide. The threat of locally
heavy rainfall and flash flooding spreads into western NM as a
result.

The upper high builds back over the Great Basin by Saturday setting
up a drier northeast flow over NM. Expect a downtrend in storm
coverage, although the southern third of NM does look to keep a
healthy batch of storms going. The northeast flow remains Sunday,
with an upper level low moving into the panhandle of Texas sometime
Sunday into early next week. This would enhance storm coverage for
eastern NM. It would also help keep temperatures down below normal as
well.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot, dry and unstable conditions continue across much of northwest
New Mexico, while hot, moist and unstable conditions prevail across
eastern New Mexico. Wetting storms will favor the higher terrain and
northeast plains this evening. More of the same Wednesday as the
upper high holds-on over southern UT and northern AZ. Wetting storms
will progress further south across the eastern plains Wednesday
night.

Humidity and chances for wetting rain will ramp-up late week as the
upper high moves further northwest across the Great Basin, allowing
moisture to spread west across the state. High temperatures will
trend down as a result of the added cloud cover and rain-cooling.
The upper high will move south to over AZ and/or southern CA early
to mid next week and expand over NM, leading to a warming trend with
daily rounds of wetting storms trending down but still remaining
active.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
303 AM MDT Tue Aug 7 2018

NMZ501>540-081100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
303 AM MDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of northeast and
east central New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Storms will
initially be discrete but as they shift eastward, they will grow
upscale into a small cluster. Large hail will be the initial threat,
however, the potential for damaging wind gusts will increase as the
storms shift east. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding is also
possible with any storms this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase in number and
intensity through the remainder of the work week. Severe weather
remains possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across northeast and
east central New Mexico. Once again, large hail and damaging winds
will be the main threats.

Heavy rain will also be a concern area wide through the remainder of
the week as soils become increasingly saturated and storm motion
slows. Though localized areas of flash flooding is possible on
Wednesday, concern for flash flooding is maximized on Thursday and
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any severe
weather through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit
storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using
the hashtag nmwx.

34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
500 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2018

NMZ521-522-072330-
Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
500 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BERNALILLO AND NORTHWESTERN
TORRANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

At 459 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tajique, or 15 miles west of Estancia, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Tajique, Chilili and Torreon.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 10640 3489 10639 3490 10610 3469 10616
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 277DEG 14KT 3482 10632

40

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
523 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2018

NMZ518-080000-
Santa Fe Metro Area-
523 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL SANTA FE COUNTY
UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

At 523 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
La Cienega, or 11 miles west of Santa Fe, moving east at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Santa Fe, Eldorado At Santa Fe, La Cienega and Tesuque.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 269 and 284.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3546 10596 3554 10623 3571 10621 3573 10591
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 277DEG 8KT 3562 10614

40

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
553 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2018

NMZ518-080030-
Santa Fe Metro Area-
553 PM MDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL SANTA FE COUNTY
UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

At 553 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
La Cienega, or 12 miles southwest of Santa Fe, moving east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Santa Fe, Eldorado At Santa Fe, La Bajada and La Cienega.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 265 and 283.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 10625 3570 10622 3572 10593 3545 10598
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 277DEG 7KT 3561 10615

40

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