Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1158 AM MDT Wed Jul 25 2018

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A slight downtick in convective coverage is expected this afternoon,
before an uptick in activity along and east of the central mountain
chain this evening. SCT to ISOLD showers and thunderstorms that form
over the mountains this afternoon will generally track southeastward
over adjacent lowlands about 10-20 mph. Wet microbursts are expected
with erratic wind gusts potentially reaching 45 kt. Tonight, an upper
level trough will clip northeast NM in northwest flow aloft while a
moist back door cold front plunges southwestward into the state.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected along
and east of the central mountain chain, with more isolated activity
lingering further west. A few severe thunderstorms will be possible
this afternoon and evening from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains
eastward, with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...245 AM MDT Wed Jul 25 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Afternoon storms will once again favor the higher terrain before
moving to the southeast to lower elevations of eastern and central
New Mexico. Plenty of monsoon moisture remains allowing any passing
storms to produce locally heavy rainfall. Burn scars and areas that
have seen heavy rainfall in recent days will remain at risk of flash
flooding. A backdoor front will keep temperatures close to normal, as
well as supply more moisture to eastern and central New Mexico
Thursday. Gusty winds will accompany the front as it squeezes through
the gaps of the central mountains Thursday morning. Daily rounds of
afternoon and evening storms will continue into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Remnant showers continue to drift southeast over portions of east-
central NM, with a few showers also over the western highlands. These
showers and accompanying overhanging high clouds will gradually
subside toward sunrise. The high continues to shift west over
southern CA today keeping NW flow over the state, allowing another
round of afternoon showers and storms to form over the high terrain
before moving southeast over central and eastern NM in the evening.
Storm coverage will be a bit less today, but still expecting a
healthy crop of storms to form with plenty of moisture and heating to
work with. Faster storm motions are also expected and hence have
foregone a Flash Flood Watch today, however recent burn scars will
still be highly susceptible to flash flooding from any moderate to
heavy rainfall. Areas that have seen plenty of rain in recent days
where soils are plenty saturated will also be at higher risk for
quick runoff and flash flooding.

Models are still depicting a backdoor frontal bdry entering northeast
NM late this evening, being a focal point for storms to form along
over the northeast plains. This backdoor bdry will be enhanced from
outflows pushing south and west through the central gaps of the
central mtns Thursday morning. Moisture will be further replenished
behind the front keeping daily rounds of storms forming each
afternoon over the high terrain. With the upper high staying over
southern CA and the lower CO River Basin, NW flow aloft will keep
storm motion to the southeast from the central mtns eastward each
evening. Any storms over the ABQ metro will likely form along outflow
bdrys moving through the RGV later in the evening Thu and Fri.

The weekend looks to have a potential down day with storm coverage
Saturday, at least relatively speaking until another backdoor front
arrives late Saturday into early Sunday supplying another fresh batch
of moisture to eastern and central NM. PWATs and storm coverage trend
up for Sunday heading into early next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF
continue to depict a more amplified trough setting up over the
Great Plains for early next week, with more of a N-S flow regime
setting up over NM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Another large area of moderate to locally heavy rain shifted south
through central and eastern NM the past 24 hrs. Widespread rainfall
over the past 7 days has averaged 0.50" to 1" along the Continental
Divide, the northern mountains, and the high plains of eastern NM.
Locally heavier amounts of 2 to 3" have been observed in several
areas. There will be little change to the pattern the next 7 to 10
days as upper level high pressure centers over Arizona and periodic
back door cold fronts move into eastern NM. Temperatures will be
close to normal across western NM and slightly below normal across
the east. Min humidity will range from the teens across the west to
the 20s and 30s across the east. Overnight recoveries will range
from good across the west to excellent across the east. Drought
conditions will likely be scaled back over the next week as soil
moisture continues to improve.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
356 AM MDT Wed Jul 25 2018

NMZ501>540-261100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
356 AM MDT Wed Jul 25 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today through the
overnight. Rainfall could become heavy and this may lead to
localized areas of flash flooding, especially over and near recent
and older burn scars and over recently rain soaked areas. Isolated
locations may receive up to 2 inches of rainfall. A few storms may
also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected through the rest of
the week and weekend. Rainfall could become heavy and this may lead
to localized areas of flash flooding, especially over and near recent
and older burn scars and over recently rain soaked areas. Isolated
locations may receive up to 2 inches of rainfall. A few storms may
also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
200 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2018

NMZ515-252030-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
200 PM MDT WED JUL 25 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL MORA COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM MDT...

At 200 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Coyote Creek State Park, or 11 miles northeast of Mora, moving east
at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ocate, Coyote Creek State Park, Ojo Feliz, Guadalupita and El
Turquillo.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

&&

LAT...LON 3607 10531 3620 10525 3622 10501 3595 10507
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 281DEG 6KT 3612 10522

DPorter

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