Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Albuquerque, NM

842 
WWUS55 KABQ 250013
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
613 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2018

NMC019-047-250030-
/O.CON.KABQ.SV.W.0162.000000T0000Z-180725T0030Z/
San Miguel-Guadalupe-
613 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM MDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL AND NORTHWESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES...

At 612 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Dilia, or 26
miles northwest of Santa Rosa, and is nearly stationary.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Dilia and portions of U.S. Highway 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Accumulations of hail on roads can create very slick and hazardous 
driving conditions.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to 
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 10489 3511 10488 3510 10515 3526 10513
      3527 10501
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 105DEG 2KT 3519 10504 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DPorter

984 
WWUS55 KABQ 250039
SVSABQ

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
639 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2018

NMC019-047-250047-
/O.EXP.KABQ.SV.W.0162.000000T0000Z-180725T0030Z/
San Miguel-Guadalupe-
639 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL AND
NORTHWESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
                
The storm that prompted the Severe Thunderstorm Warning has weakened 
below severe limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life 
or property. Therefore the warning has been allowed to expire.
 
However, small hail and heavy rain are still possible with this 
thunderstorm. A Flash Flood Warning is in effect until 830 PM MDT 
for south central San Miguel and north central Guadalupe Counties.

LAT...LON 3527 10489 3511 10488 3510 10515 3526 10513
      3527 10501
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 105DEG 2KT 3519 10505 

$$

DPorter

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
533 PM MDT Tue Jul 24 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
With a abundant moisture in place widespread showers and
thunderstorms will continue well into tonight. All TAF sites have a
risk of showers and storms. Most sites have a TEMPO group for SH or
TS this evening/early tonight. Thunderstorms will generally move
toward the SE or S at 5-15 kt this evening, then from 10-20 kt
tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to congeal into a complex that
travels south southeastward across the eastern plains tonight. There
is also a marginal risk of severe storms along and east of the
central mountain chain. Wet microbursts and potentially large hail
are expected with erratic wind gusts that could exceed 45 kt. We
will do it all over again Wednesday as widespread showers and storms
form again.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...305 PM MDT Tue Jul 24 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
An active shower and thunderstorm period will continue through the
end of the week and perhaps into early next week. Central and eastern
New Mexico will be favored for the most widespread rainfall. Heavy
rain and flash flooding will be possible, especially over burn scars
or areas that have received recent heavy rainfall. Small hail and
gusty winds will also be possible across portions of the northeast.
Temperatures will remain above normal across western New Mexico, but
will be near to below normal across central and eastern New Mexico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have been somewhat slower to start today,
likely owning to some cooling from yesterdays storms. With that said,
PWATs have increased over yesterday per the KABQ 12Z sounding.
Models indicated that storms will roll off the northern mountains to
the south and east, similar to yesterday. Also similar to yesterday,
storms that roll into the northeast and east central highlands will
be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. Initially, it should be a
hail threat, then as the cold pool strengthens, winds will become
the dominating threat. LAPS analysis is indicating Lifted Indices of
-5 to -6 to the south and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, so
 there is plenty of instability to work with yet this aftn/eve.

On Wednesday, a weak frontal boundary will push into northeast NM in
the afternoon. In addition to the high terrain, this will be the
focus for thunderstorms Wed aftn/eve. The front/outflow boundary will
continue to press southward across the plains and through the gaps
of the central mountain chain Wednesday night. Moisture behind this
boundary will re-invigorate the shower and thunderstorm crop along
and west of the central mountain chain on Thursday, at least
according to the NAM. Thus after today, the Albuquerque Metro's next
best shot at rainfall will be Thursday. On Friday, the greatest rain
chances look to bisect the state from southwest to northeast.
Precipitable water values will remain near one inch, or higher across
eastern NM, so any storm will be capable of heavy rain and flash
flooding. As the week goes on, and soils become increasingly
saturated, runoff and flash flooding will become a bigger concern. A
few severe storms will be possible each day across northeast NM as
well.

Models continue to indicate another strong back door cold front will
shift southward through the plains and westward through the gaps of
the central mountain chain. This will again replenish low level
moisture values, and set the stage for an active early week period.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The subtropical high pressure system is expected to remain west of
NM over the next 7 days.  With ample moisture in place, there will
be daily rounds of wetting showers and thunderstorms. Some storms
will be capable of locally heavy rainfall and burn scar flash
flooding. Disturbances embedded in the periphery of the upper high
will cross in northwest and north flow aloft daily, and these will
send moist back door fronts into the area replenishing low level
moisture.  In the latest model runs, one front is expected Wednesday
night, then multiple fronts will be possible during the coming
weekend. Thursday's back door front should reach all of the way to
the continental divide by evening. Locations along and east of the
continental divide will be favored for moderate to heavy rainfall
this week, while areas northwest of the continental divide have
little if any rain.  High temperatures across the west will
generally vary from a few to 7 degrees above normal each day, while
readings in the east vary from near normal to as much as 7 degrees
below normal depending on the timing of the fronts.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for the following
zones... NMZ511>515-518-523-527>529.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
242 AM MDT Tue Jul 24 2018

NMZ501>540-251100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
242 AM MDT Tue Jul 24 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today through the
overnight. Storm motions will be slow and rainfall could become
heavy. This may lead to localized areas of flash flooding,
especially over and near recent and older burn scars. Isolated
locations may receive up to 2 to 3 inches of rainfall. A few storms
may also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each afternoon into
weekend. Storm motions will be slow and rainfall could become heavy.
This may lead to localized areas of flash flooding, especially over
and near recent and older burn scars. Isolated locations may receive
up to 2 inches of rainfall. A few storms may also produce small hail
and wind gusts to 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
300 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2018

NMZ515-527-242130-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
300 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COLFAX COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM MDT...

At 259 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles north of Ute Park, or 30 miles east of Questa, moving southeast
at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Colfax County. If threatening weather approaches your area, take
shelter in a sturdy building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3677 10516 3686 10510 3685 10482 3663 10494
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 295DEG 5KT 3679 10505

DPorter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
305 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2018

NMZ515-528-242130-
Far Northeast Highlands-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
305 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MORA COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM MDT...

At 305 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
La Cueva, or 9 miles east of Mora, moving south at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm. Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
La Cueva, Golondrinas, Luceros, Ojo Feliz, Rainsville and South
Carmen.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3605 10525 3609 10505 3583 10501 3588 10535
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 021DEG 7KT 3600 10516

DPorter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
335 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2018

NMZ515-527-242200-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
335 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COLFAX COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM MDT...

At 335 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles northeast of Elizabethtown, or 27 miles east of Questa, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm. Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Vermejo Park.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3686 10491 3665 10510 3679 10518 3684 10514
      3688 10514 3694 10508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 304DEG 8KT 3683 10511

DPorter

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
509 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2018

NMZ509-242345-
San Francisco River Valley-
509 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CATRON COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM MDT...

At 508 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Glenwood, or 22 miles northwest of Buckhorn, moving southeast at 10
mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Glenwood, Alma and Pleasanton.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3335 10902 3341 10891 3321 10878 3321 10902
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 327DEG 9KT 3330 10893

DPorter

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
524 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 ESE UTE PARK          36.54N 105.03W
07/24/2018                   COLFAX             NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RIVER TOPPED U.S. HIGHWAY 64 AT MILE MARKER 302 WITH
            DEBRIS AND LARGE BOULDERS ON ROAD. A SIDE BRIDGE NEXT TO
            U.S. 64 AT MILE MARKER 303 IS UNDER WATER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800734

DPORTER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
539 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2018

NMZ515-528-250015-
Far Northeast Highlands-East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
539 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MORA COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM MDT...

At 539 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Valmora, or 15 miles west of Wagon Mound, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm. Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Watrous.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 367 and 386.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3597 10513 3608 10495 3598 10469 3577 10501
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 319DEG 10KT 3599 10499

DPorter