Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
554 PM MDT Sat Jul 14 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Mainly SCT showers and thunderstorms this evening will decrease in
coverage by midnight. Some storms this evening will be capable of
locally heavy rainfall with wet microbursts producing erratic wind
gusts potentially over 45 kt. SCT to NMRS showers and thunderstorms
will return Sunday afternoon with most of the activity along and west
of the central mountain chain, and little or no convection near NM's
eastern border. Wet microbursts will again be expected Sunday.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...211 PM MDT Sat Jul 14 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Another healthy batch of afternoon storms have formed over the higher
terrain with the greatest coverage over southern and west-central New
Mexico. Daily rounds of convection will continue Sunday and Monday
with locally heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding over
burn scars remaining. Storm coverage will trend down Tuesday as high
pressure begins to build over the region, with temperatures well
above average state-wide by Wednesday. Although storm coverage
trends down for late next week, any storms that do form will continue
to bring the threat of locally heavy rains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Another healthy batch of high terrain storms have formed this
afternoon, sct over southern and west-central NM, more isold so far
over the northern mtns where drier mid-level air is intruding from
the NE. Storm motions remain slow and will drift over valley
locations later this evening slowly dying out overnight. The threat
of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding remains, so will keep
the Flash Flood Watch going with the overnight crew continuing to
make the decision for Sunday.

Sunday and Monday look to be rather similar with slow storm motions
and storms focusing over the high terrain first before drifting over
valley locations. The aforementioned mid-level dry air will work its
way further south over eastern NM Sunday, with an easterly wave
moving over Mexico by Monday. This will force storms to focus more
over central and western NM Sunday and Monday. Locally heavy rains
can be expected with afternoon storms.

By Tuesday, PoPs trend down significantly focusing over western and
northern locations. A ridge begins to build squarely over NM during
this time, strengthening into the latter half of next week. This
should limit any afternoon convection to the higher terrain, with
temperatures warming well above normal. 100s are back on tap for the
lower elevations of eastern NM, including Roswell and TCC by Wed.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Near record moisture levels across NM will continue to generate
daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers and storms through
Tuesday. Weak steering flows will lead to locally heavy rainfall
with the potential for flash flooding, particularly over recent burn
scars. Convective activity will shift more into the northern and
western high terrain as we progress into early next week. High
temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal with very
good to excellent overnight recoveries for most areas.

An unseasonably strong upper level high center will attempt to build
over NM through the middle to end of next week. Temperatures beneath
this high center will warm above normal and the coverage of showers
and storms will be limited to the areas in and around the higher
terrain. Moisture recycling and very weak steering flow will still
lead to locally heavy rainfall however footprints will become much
smaller. Haines values will begin rising into the 5 and 6 range with
minimum humidity trending into the teens just about everywhere.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for the following
zones... NMZ506-508-510>515-521-526.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
408 AM MDT Sat Jul 14 2018

NMZ501>540-151200-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
408 AM MDT Sat Jul 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today through this
evening. Storm motions will be slow and rainfall could become heavy.
This may lead to localized areas of flash flooding, especially over
and downstream of recent burn scars. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches
are possible. A few storms may also produce small hail and wind
gusts to 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected again on Sunday and
Monday. Slow storm motions and heavy rainfall may lead to localized
areas of flash flooding, especially over and near recent burn scars
and within urban drainage systems. A few storms may also produce
small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts, hail, strong wind
gusts, and any flooding through the National Weather Service
Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.
You can also submit storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or
via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 PM MDT SAT JUL 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     HAIL             7 E ALBUQUERQUE         35.12N 106.50W
07/14/2018  M0.75 INCH       BERNALILLO         NM   COCORAHS

            INDIAN SCHOOL AND CHELWOOD PARK BLVD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800721

TRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
638 PM MDT SAT JUL 14 2018

NMZ504-506-507-519-150115-
West Central Mountains-West Central Highlands-Northwest
Highlands-Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
638 PM MDT SAT JUL 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MCKINLEY AND
SOUTHWESTERN SANDOVAL COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM MDT...

At 638 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Marquez, or 27 miles northeast of Laguna Pueblo,
moving west at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marquez.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3559 10698 3531 10698 3530 10737 3562 10737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 087DEG 10KT 3538 10713

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
719 PM MDT SAT JUL 14 2018

NMZ504-150145-
Northwest Highlands-
719 PM MDT SAT JUL 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MCKINLEY COUNTY
UNTIL 745 PM MDT...

At 719 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles south of Pueblo Pintado, or 30 miles east of Crownpoint, moving
northwest at 20 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
McKinley County.

&&

LAT...LON 3588 10787 3588 10784 3593 10783 3600 10779
      3581 10747 3565 10757 3576 10794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 117DEG 17KT 3577 10761

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
754 PM MDT SAT JUL 14 2018

NMZ504-506-150230-
West Central Mountains-Northwest Highlands-
754 PM MDT SAT JUL 14 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MCKINLEY COUNTY
UNTIL 830 PM MDT...

At 754 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of San Mateo, or 24 miles north of Grants, moving west at
15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
McKinley County.

Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3554 10757 3537 10762 3539 10796 3565 10788
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 102DEG 12KT 3548 10769

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