Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1156 PM MDT Fri Jun 8 2018

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues over east central New
Mexico, and should slowly diminish into the early morning hours.
Gusty downburst winds and hail will accompany these storms along with
brief downpours and lower ceilings and visibility. Elsewhere VFR
conditions will prevail with faint mid to upper level clouds over
some south central to central parts of the forecast area. Light to
moderate breezes will prevail with new showers and storms taking
shape Saturday afternoon, namely east of the central mountain chain
of New Mexico, lasting into the late evening.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...250 PM MDT Fri Jun 8 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
A dry line is located from the far northeast plains to the southeast
plains this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will form along the
dry line this afternoon and evening in the eastern plains with the
potential for a few storms to become severe. Moisture will increase
across the region Saturday with isolated to scattered thunderstorms
east of the central mountains and isolated dry thunderstorms west of
the central mountains. Drier air will move across New Mexico from
the west Sunday, and isolated thunderstorms are expected east of the
central mountains. Strong high pressure aloft will move across New
Mexico Monday and Tuesday with dry weather and continued above normal
temperatures expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A dry line has developed this afternoon from the far northeast
plains south-southwestward to the southeast plains. Dewpoints to the
east of the dry line are in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Instability
to the east of the dry line is very high with 100 millibar mixed
layer CAPE between 1000 and 2500 J/kg and lifted indices between
minus 4 and minus 8 C. NAM model soundings are indicating weak shear
with 0-6 km bulk shear between 15 to 25 knots. The main threat
associated with isolated thunderstorms forming along and east of the
dry line this afternoon and evening will be strong winds. The very
dry layer of air below 650 millibars in model soundings also points
to strong winds as the primary threat.

As the upper level high shifts slowly to the east Saturday, low and
mid level moisture will increase slightly in eastern NM. Coverage of
showers and thunderstorms will increase slightly across eastern and
central NM Saturday with isolated dry thunderstorms west of the
central mountains. A large upper level trough will move inland across
the interior western U.S. Sunday. This system will shift the upper
level flow to the west across NM, and drier air will move into
western and central NM. Moisture will be slower to erode in eastern
NM, where isolated thunderstorms could become severe in a higher
shear environment.

A strong upper level high will build northward from north central
Mexico to southern and central NM Monday and Tuesday. Strong warming
aloft beneath the upper level high will suppress convection. High
temperatures Monday and Tuesday will continue to be around 5 to 10
degrees above normal. Model solutions differ in the position of the
upper high Wednesday through Saturday. The GFS moves the upper high
to the east, allowing deeper layer moisture to move northward across
NM, while the ECMWF shows the upper high remaining over the
Southwest.

28

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms developing along the east slopes of the
Sangre de Cristo's are expected to increase in coverage and
intensity as they move east later this afternoon and evening. A few
storms will become strong and maybe severe as they approach the TX
border. Cumulus build-ups in the west will produce virga and strong
wind gusts, with little or no rain reaching the ground. Mild tonight
with fair to poor RH recovery in the west and generally good in the
east.

The upper high is still forecast to slide a little to the east
Saturday, allowing a modest increase in moisture. This will be
enough to produce an uptick in convection from the western mountains
to the TX border. Storms along the western periphery will be mostly
dry, with a mix of wet and dry in central areas and mostly wet
storms with the eastern activity. Minimum humidities will come up
some Saturday, holding above 15 percent across most of the east.
Nighttime recoveries will be fair in the west and good in the east.

A drying trend will begin Sunday in the west, and cover all of NM
Monday. There will still be isolated to perhaps scattered convection
in the east Sunday. Humidities will lower each day, with mins mostly
below 10 percent by Monday.

Moisture will begin to inch upward Tuesday, but little or no
convection is now expected. Instead, a more respectable surge of
moisture will take place Wednesday, and remain through at least the
end of the week. Let's hope this is a prelude to our monsoon season!

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
329 AM MDT Fri Jun 8 2018

NMZ501>540-091100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
329 AM MDT Fri Jun 8 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms over far eastern New
Mexico this afternoon and early evening where large hail and damaging
winds are possible. Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected over the
southern and southwest high terrain today where gusty outflow winds
and dry lightning strikes are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected Saturday over the central
and western high terrain where gusty outflow winds and dry lightning
strikes are possible. Strong outflow wind gusts from this activity
may reach the Rio Grande Valley by the late afternoon hours.

Strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms may develop over eastern New
Mexico Sunday afternoon with large hail and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Guyer

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
951 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2018

NMZ534-535-090415-
Curry County-Quay County-
951 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL QUAY AND NORTH
CENTRAL CURRY COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM MDT...

At 950 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Grady, or 29 miles southeast of Tucumcari, moving
southeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Forrest.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 3485 10365 3492 10348 3478 10329 3465 10355
TIME...MOT...LOC 0350Z 305DEG 15KT 3480 10347

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1116 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2018

NMZ535-090600-
Curry County-
1116 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CURRY COUNTY UNTIL
MIDNIGHT MDT...

At 1115 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ranchvale, or 7 miles north of Clovis, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clovis, Texico, Cannon Air Force Base, Ranchvale, Portair and
Pleasant Hill.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3437 10332 3451 10337 3465 10329 3461 10304
      3433 10305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0515Z 316DEG 21KT 3452 10322

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1203 AM MDT SAT JUN 9 2018

NMZ534-535-090630-
Curry County-Quay County-
1203 AM MDT SAT JUN 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN QUAY AND NORTH
CENTRAL CURRY COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM MDT...

At 1202 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wheatland, or 25 miles southeast of Tucumcari, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grady and Wheatland.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3485 10354 3499 10347 3494 10316 3470 10331
TIME...MOT...LOC 0602Z 291DEG 11KT 3488 10344

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1206 AM MDT SAT JUN 9 2018

NMZ535-536-090630-
Roosevelt County-Curry County-
1206 AM MDT SAT JUN 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROOSEVELT AND
SOUTHWESTERN CURRY COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM MDT...

At 1206 AM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Melrose, or 28 miles east of Fort Sumner, moving
east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Melrose.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3437 10366 3451 10387 3460 10380 3461 10370
      3459 10351
TIME...MOT...LOC 0606Z 291DEG 11KT 3453 10375

24