Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
329 PM MDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
As an upper level low pressure system crosses the central and
southern Rockies, there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms
from the Continental Divide across the eastern plains through this
evening. Some storms will also be capable of producing a quick burst
of heavy rain which could lead to localized flooding. The activity
will taper off later tonight, and will be followed by warmer and
drier weather through the work week. Tuesday through Thursday will
see temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above average. The upper high center
will wobble around the region later this week, with potential for
some moisture to seep into the state, and spark some showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Closed low over southeast UT is combining with a backdoor front and
plentiful Gulf moisture to generate several rounds/lines of
convection today. A tornado was confirmed 2-3 miles south of the
Acoma Pueblo administration offices just south of I-40. Models agree
that the current line of convection in the mid RGV will expand as it
heads east and southeast this evening. Stability from the low- level
ely flow likely to keep severe thunderstorms over eastern NM in
check somewhat this evening. 50kts of winds at 500mb will likely
keep precipitation amounts in check this evening along and east of
the central mountain and over southeast NM tonight.

An upper level ridge builds over NM Monday and Tuesday, sliding east
of the state Wednesday. High temperatures warm across eastern NM
Tuesday with triple-digit heat returning to many lower elevation
sites. Lee side surface low deepens somewhat over northeast NM
Wednesday once the ridge axis shift east of the state. Southerly to
southwest winds increase a bit but nothing major.

Thursday through next weekend sure looking rather monsoon-like with
the sub-tropical upper- high centered over TX/southern NM and southerly
to southwest flow aloft brining up sub-tropical moisture. A few
thunderstorms are possible mainly south of I-40 Thursday afternoon
and evening with more activity possible areawide Friday and perhaps
into next weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture has increased over New Mexico, with scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms tracking northeast this afternoon. Some of
the convection could become strong to severe through this evening
with large hail and erratic gusts to around 50 or 60 mph. Potential
for localized heavy rain also, with flash flooding concerns if one of
these cells hits a burn scar. Models suggest most widespread and
significant rainfall may be focused over portions of central to
eastern New Mexico through tonight but are not in good agreement on
the specific area. Cell motion may trend to a more east or
southeasterly direction this evening.

Cooler tonight, then a warming and drying trend Monday, persisting
into the later part of the week with above average temperatures.
Despite the warming and drying, winds are not forecast to be strong
enough to trigger critical fire weather conditions. Tuesday through
Thursday will be 5 to 15 degrees warmer than average and the west and
central will be particularly dry, with 5 to 15 consecutive hours of
single digit humidities. Poor overnight humidity recoveries will also
plague the west and central during this time. Models suggest there
may be some seeping of moisture into the upper high late this week,
which could spark some mostly dry afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Upper low vcnty Four Corners at 18Z to track over CO and nrn NM next
12-18 hrs. Expect broad swath of showers and tstms stretching in an
arc from near E33 to KSXU and KSRR at 17Z to continue moving e, with
additional development over wrn/central NM aft 19Z. Generally VFR
but cigs/vsbys lowering briefly to MVFR or IFR and obscuring terrain
in convection. Some storms may be strong to severe with hail and wind
gusts to 45-50kts. Convection may evolve into a large area of rain
with embedded storms over portions of ern NM aft 00Z but forecast
models not at all in agreement where this activity will be focused.
Clearing and drying from west to east over the state aft 04/12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  51  92  52  93 /   5   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  41  84  42  88 /  10   5   0   5
Cuba............................  46  83  50  87 /  10   5   0   0
Gallup..........................  42  90  42  90 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  42  85  43  86 /  10   0   0   0
Grants..........................  43  87  45  90 /  10   5   0   0
Quemado.........................  47  88  47  88 /  10   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  56  96  57  94 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  36  79  36  83 /  30  10   0   5
Los Alamos......................  52  83  57  88 /  30  10   0   5
Pecos...........................  50  84  55  88 /  70   0   0   5
Cerro/Questa....................  43  78  45  83 /  50  10   5   5
Red River.......................  39  70  39  76 /  60  10  10   5
Angel Fire......................  33  74  32  79 /  60   5   5   5
Taos............................  41  83  42  88 /  50   5   0   5
Mora............................  43  81  46  86 /  60   5   0   5
Espanola........................  49  90  53  95 /  30   0   0   5
Santa Fe........................  52  84  56  89 /  50   0   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  49  88  53  92 /  40   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  54  89  58  92 /  50   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  57  91  59  93 /  40   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  54  92  57  95 /  40   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  55  91  58  94 /  30   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  52  93  53  96 /  50   5   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  55  91  58  94 /  30   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  59  93  62  97 /  60  10   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  85  53  87 /  60   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  50  87  54  90 /  60   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  90  46  93 /  60   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  49  86  51  89 /  70   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  53  87  56  90 /  70   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  57  90  60  93 /  60   5   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  52  83  55  86 /  70  10   0   0
Capulin.........................  48  83  50  88 /  40  10  10  10
Raton...........................  46  87  49  91 /  50   5  10  10
Springer........................  46  88  49  93 /  50   5   5   5
Las Vegas.......................  47  84  49  89 /  70   5   0   5
Clayton.........................  54  90  56  93 /  30  10  10  10
Roy.............................  51  87  53  93 /  60   5   0   5
Conchas.........................  57  95  59 101 /  70   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  56  94  58 100 /  70   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  58  96  61 101 /  60  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  57  91  60  98 /  50  10   5   0
Portales........................  59  92  62  99 /  50  10   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  59  95  61 101 /  70  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  64  98  63 105 /  60  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  59  93  61  98 /  60  10   0   0
Elk.............................  54  88  57  92 /  50  10   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
415 AM MDT Sun Jun 3 2018

NMZ501>540-041100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
415 AM MDT Sun Jun 3 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the continental
divide region of western New Mexico eastward onto the central high
plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds will
be the main threat. Some storms will also be capable of producing
heavy rain at rates over 1 inch per hour with a risk of flash
flooding. Heavy rain on very dry soil can result in heavy runoff and
drainage problems, but the greatest risk of flash flooding will be in
urban areas of central New Mexico and also on recent burn scars.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time. However, weather can
change very rapidly. Always use the latest forecasts, watches and
warning for planning purposes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening mainly
from the continental divide eastward to the Pecos River Valley of
eastern New Mexico.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
329 PM MDT SUN JUN 03 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             7 S PORTALES            34.08N 103.34W
06/03/2018  E0.88 INCH       ROOSEVELT          NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800676

RJH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
344 PM MDT SUN JUN 03 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             5 S BELEN               34.59N 106.78W
06/03/2018  E1.50 INCH       VALENCIA           NM   PUBLIC

            SKYLIGHTS KNOCKED OUT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800678

RS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
358 PM MDT SUN JUN 3 2018

NMZ518-521>523-032245-
Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Santa Fe Metro Area-Central
Highlands-Estancia Valley-
358 PM MDT SUN JUN 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SANTA FE AND NORTH
CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 358 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Edgewood, or 7 miles northwest of Moriarty, moving east at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Edgewood, Moriarty, Stanley and Cedar Grove.

This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 184 and 207.

Accumulations of small hail on roads can create very slick and
hazardous driving conditions.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
central and north central New Mexico.

LAT...LON 3495 10622 3513 10626 3530 10593 3501 10582
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 257DEG 20KT 3506 10616

CA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
404 PM MDT SUN JUN 03 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     HAIL             17 SE BELEN             34.48N 106.57W
06/03/2018  E1.00 INCH       VALENCIA           NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800679

SHOEMAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
422 PM MDT SUN JUN 03 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             1 WSW JARALES           34.61N 106.78W
06/03/2018  E1.00 INCH       VALENCIA           NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800680

RJH