Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Albuquerque, NM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
520 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Short-lived MVFR conditions and mt obscurations are possible in/near
showers and storms until around 06Z. Strong and gusty winds are also
likely in/near showers and storms. Cell motion mainly to the
northeast and east. Otherwise, bkn mid to high level clouds as the
upper high center continues to shift into TX allowing increasing
moisture from the south to move into NM. Expect sct to nmrs showers
and storms to redevelop aft 15/18Z over wrn and central NM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...240 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase
through Friday. The remnants of Tropical Storm Bud will slide north
across New Mexico Saturday and bring a widespread area of rain with
scattered thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall is expected and the
risk for flash flooding will increase, especially over recent burn
areas. Temperatures will trend below normal for central and western
New Mexico Saturday. Drier air will arrive over western New Mexico
Sunday and force the focus for storms east of the central mountain
chain through Monday. The next significant surge of moisture is on
the way Tuesday with a strong back door cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Confidence has increased considerably on the timing of significant
precip moving northward over NM Friday night through Saturday night
with the remnants of Tropical Storm Bud. A Special Weather Statement
will be issued today highlighting the expected scenario.

Convective coverage has shifted more into central and western NM
today. The atmosphere is still in the moistening phase so expect
more strong outflow winds, blowing dust, and smaller footprints of
moderate to heavy rainfall. Moisture will increase moreso tonight as
deep layer flow becomes more southerly and opens the door to flow
associated with Tropical Storm Bud. Friday will see similar coverage
of storms but with larger footprints of heavy rainfall. Temperatures
will cool another few degrees and be close to normal.

The latest guidance is beginning to come into good agreement on the
timing and coverage of heaviest precip Friday night through Saturday
night. The 12Z NAM and GFS show two areas of QPF moving north across
the state. The first comes Friday night west of the Cont Dvd with
moderate to locally heavy QPF, followed by the second and much more
widespread QPF in association with the remnant circulation of Bud
Saturday and Saturday night. Model PWATs increase to near record
values Saturday with marginal instability beneath the remnant wave.
This should translate into a slug of efficient warm rain processes
for central and western NM with embedded storms. Instability is more
impressive over eastern NM and guidance develops a convective line
oriented parallel to the mean flow Saturday night. This may translate
into training storms with very heavy rainfall. As a result, there is
potential for flooding just about anywhere in the forecast area,
especially on recent wildfire burn areas.

Drier and more stable conditions are still expected to arrive from
the west Sunday and Monday with the focus for storms mainly over
eastern NM. Some recycled moisture will still allow for a few storms
to pop around the central high terrain. Guidance is now in very good
agreement with a significant uptick in showers and storms beginning
Tuesday.

Guyer

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is firing over mainly
western NM as well as the east slopes of the central mountains.
They will continue into tonight, with the storms in the west trying
to hold together as they drop into the Rio Grande Valley, and the
east slope storms moving onto the eastern plains. Minimum RH
recoveries will be fair to good.

Moisture will continue to increase Friday as we begin to get the
first sign of subtropical moisture from now Tropical Storm Bud in
western NM. Rain chances will increase in the west Friday and really
ramp up over the west and central areas Friday night. RH recoveries
Friday night will be good to excellent area wide.

The most widespread and intense rainfall will fall on Saturday as
the remnant upper low of bud moves from southwest to northwest
across the state. Flash flooding will be a concern in some areas,
with exceptionally serious concerns on the fresh burn scars.
Saturday night will remain active, then a drying trend is still
expected for Sunday from west to east. Rainfall amounts will average
0.50 to 1.00 inches over much of the area from Friday night through
Saturday night, aside from perhaps the northeast.

Monday may be the driest day of next week with nothing in the west,
and isolated to scattered POPS in the east. Then subtropical
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will invade the state next Tuesday
and linger into Thursday. Highest POPS should be in the east, but
there is a good chance western areas get some more rain as well.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

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