Flash Flood Warning 99, NWS Albuquerque, NM

751 
WGUS75 KABQ 252038
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
238 PM MDT SAT AUG 25 2018

NMC007-252230-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0099.000000T0000Z-180825T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Colfax-
238 PM MDT SAT AUG 25 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN COLFAX COUNTY...

At 237 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms produced heavy 
rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is expected to have 
begun.

Flash flooding will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Colfax County.

This will impact the Morris Creek wildfire burn scar including but
not limited to Rimrock Lake, Morris and Rayado Creeks and State
Road 21, as well as Miami Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Runoff from rainfall will cause elevated water levels within
vulnerable drainages in and downstream of the Morris Creek burn area.

&&

LAT...LON 3637 10502 3635 10498 3634 10503 3634 10509
      3637 10508

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1139 AM MDT Sat Aug 25 2018

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will favor western
areas of the state near the Continental Divide today. Storms are
already taking shape and will continue to do so into the late
afternoon, gradually diminishing through the early evening. Brief
MVFR to perhaps IFR conditions are expected with any storms, along
with gusty downburst winds and small hail.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT Sat Aug 25 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Deep layer moisture across northern and central New Mexico and a weak
upper level disturbance will combine to bring scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms to the region today and tonight. Weak high
pressure aloft will move across the state Sunday with a decrease in
showers and thunderstorm activity. Monday will be mainly dry and
seasonably warm. A weak backdoor cold front will increase moisture
across the eastern plains Tuesday with just a few isolated
thunderstorms expected Tuesday evening. Upper level high pressure
will move northward across New Mexico Wednesday with an increase in
moisture and isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms across
central and eastern portions of the state. Strong high pressure aloft
stretching from Texas to southern California Thursday through
Saturday will create above normal temperatures and mainly dry
conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models in good agreement in showing a monsoonal plume of moisture
stretching from north central MX north and northeastward across
western and central NM this morning. Precipitable water values within
the plume are projected to range from around one inch to one and a
half inches. A weak cyclonic circulation within the plume is expected
to move northward across west central NM early this afternoon and
then northeastward across north central NM late this afternoon and
this evening. GFS and NAM are both indicating a significant H7/H3
convergence/divergence couplet moving across these areas in
association with the cyclonic circulation. As daytime heating
increases instability, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop first across portions of western NM and
late in the afternoon across north central NM. Slow moving storms and
the likelihood of training thunderstorms across portions of west
central and north central NM will bring the threat of flash flooding
this afternoon and evening. Since storm motion will be faster across
the Sangre de Cristos, the threat of flash flooding will be mainly in
recent burn scar areas. A flash flood watch will be issued for
portions of the higher terrain of west central and north central NM
and for the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristos this afternoon and
evening.

Weak ridging aloft Sunday and slightly drier mid level air will
inhibit showers and thunderstorm formation, but adequate low level
moisture will result in isolated to scattered coverage across
western and central NM. The eastern plains are expected to see little
to no precipitation Sunday afternoon and evening. A deep trough in
the northern Rockies Monday will cause a dry, west flow aloft to set
up across NM. A weak backdoor cold front will bring a slight increase
in moisture to the eastern plains Tuesday. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are expected across portions of the far eastern plains
Tuesday evening, mainly across the southeast plains.

An upper level high will move northward across NM Wednesday and
expand and strengthen Thursday through Saturday. High temperatures
will be slightly above normal Wednesday and 3 to 8 degrees above
normal Thursday through Saturday. An increase in mid level moisture
beneath the upper high Wednesday will generate isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across central and
eastern NM. As the upper high expands across the Southwest U.S.
Thursday through Saturday, the air mass across NM will become drier
with little thunderstorm activity expected.

28

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A moist and unstable atmosphere prevails and will combine with a
disturbance moving northeast from AZ into western NM to result in
scattered to numerous wetting storms later today into tonight, with
potential for flash flooding on/near area burn scars. An above
normal PWAT atmosphere will linger into Sunday before trending down
significantly early week as dry westerlies punch into the state. The
upper high, currently over TX, will build over NM mid week and bring
temperatures above normal areawide along with higher Haines indices.
A backdoor front will slide down the eastern plains Wednesday,
bringing some moisture and limited chances for wetting storms going
into the end of the week. The medium range model solutions differ by
Friday and into next weekend, with the wetter ECMWF solution showing
the return of a more traditional monsoon pattern as the upper high
slides off to the east and a trough/low drops south from the Pacific
NW.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through this evening for the following zones...
NMZ504-506-507-510-511-515-517.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
352 AM MDT Sat Aug 25 2018

NMZ501>540-261100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
352 AM MDT Sat Aug 25 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heavy rainfall in slow-moving thunderstorms is possible across
portions of west central and north central New Mexico this afternoon
through late this evening, where localized areas of flash flooding
may occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time. However, weather can
change very rapidly. Always use the latest forecasts, watches and
warning for planning purposes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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