Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Albuquerque, NM

312 
WGUS75 KABQ 202047
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
247 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2018

NMC007-202215-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-180720T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Colfax-
247 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM MDT FOR
WESTERN COLFAX COUNTY...

At 239 PM MDT, Doppler radar indicated showers and thunderstorms 
producing moderate rain across the warned area. Doppler radar 
estimates that between 0.3 and 0.6 inches of rain has fallen over 
the western portion of Ute Park burn scar southeast of Ute Park. 
Flash flooding is expected to continue.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Cimarron and Ute Park. 

This will impact the Ute Park fire burn scar including but not
limited to Highway 64 from Ute Park to Cimarron, the Cimarron
River and the Philmont Scout Ranch backcountry as well as Ute Park
including Hummingbird Lane and Cimarron.

Highway 64 from mile marker 286 to mile marker 309 has been closed 
eastbound and westbound. Some areas north of Highway 64 that will be 
impacted include State Road 204, Bear and Dean Canyons, Ponil Creek, 
and Turkey Creek. Some areas south of Highway 64 that will be 
impacted include Webster and Cimarroncito Reservoirs, Cimarroncito 
Creek, Vaca Pond, Deer Lake, Ute Gulch and Grouse and Sawmill 
Canyons.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become
unstable and unsafe.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 10490 3649 10493 3646 10503 3650 10514
      3656 10514 3661 10507

$$

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196 
WGUS75 KABQ 202208
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
408 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2018

NMC007-202215-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-180720T2215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Colfax-
408 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WESTERN COLFAX COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
415 PM MDT...

The moderate rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose 
a threat, however, high water flows are still possible in arroyos 
and low water crossings. Please continue to heed any remaining road 
closures.

LAT...LON 3659 10490 3649 10493 3646 10503 3650 10514
      3656 10514 3661 10507

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1116 AM MDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Upper high center will drift over NM and into West TX next 24 hrs
leading to some slow and chaotic storm motion. Isold to sct showers
and tstms initiating on the higher terrain at 18Z will persist
through 02Z before diminishing. Expect brief terrain obscurations in
mainly MVFR cigs/vsbys in the stronger storms along with wind gusts
to 40 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...640 AM MDT Fri Jul 20 2018...
.UPDATE...
Updated to add Curry and Roosevelt Counties to the Heat Advisory for
this afternoon.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 AM MDT Fri Jul 20 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Two stories to tell concerning the weather. The first is the heat we
will experience through Sunday, with near record or record breaking
high temperatures at many places. The second story is a big increase
in moisture and the resulting widespread showers and thunderstorms
most of next week. Strong high pressure will be over or near NM
through this weekend, supplying the scorching heat. A potent back
door cold front will dive south and west Sunday night into Monday
with plenty of low level moisture behind it. This will set the stage
for a big increase in convection for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure is centered over northern NM early this morning but
will continue to drift east to the TX panhandle by late in the day.
The high will remain there Saturday but then move back west over NM
Sunday. The high will strengthen some during this time. High
temperatures will be above to well above normal, and near record or
record breaking highs at several locations each afternoon through
Sunday. We will issue a heat advisory again for Roswell, Fort Sumner
and Tucumcari for this afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorm
coverage today through Sunday will be mostly confined to the western
and northern mountains, with the coverage decreasing each day.

The upper high will shift west early next week, allowing short waves
and their associated cold fronts to impact the state from the
northwest. That will be the case Sunday night and Monday as a potent
cold front spreads south and west, with plenty of low level moisture
behind it. That will spark a big increase in thunderstorms starting
Monday and continuing through the week. Coverage will diminish some
as the week goes on. Flash flooding will be a big concern, especially
over recent burn scars. Highs will drop to around normal and stay
there all of next week.

CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The monsoon moisture plume will begin to retreat to the west and
north today, then there will be a monsoon break this weekend as
drier air arrives from the southeast and the subtropical high
strengthens overhead.  The high pressure system will shift to the
west of NM early in the coming week as a moist back door cold front
arrives setting the stage for a wetter and more active thunderstorm
pattern through at least mid week.

A modest monsoon moisture plume will continue to stream over western
and northern areas through this evening before shifting mostly to
the west and north of NM this weekend. There will be a lingering
risk of locally heavy rainfall in the northern and western mountains
this afternoon and evening, but models are forecasting lower
precipitation amounts overall.

As the high pressure system strengthens overhead this weekend, drier
air will filter over the area from the southeast. Precipitable water
values over central and eastern areas should bottom out Saturday
around 0.6-0.70 of an inch, while varying around 0.75 to 1 inch on
the northern and western borders. PWATS may try to climb a little
sunday. Portions of the central valley and eastern plains can expect
minimum humidities below 15 percent this weekend, while high
temperatures climb around 5 to 13 degrees above normal across the
forecast area each afternoon. Any showers and thunderstorms that
develop should be pretty isolated and favor the mountains near the
borders with AZ and CO both Saturday and Sunday.

An upper level trough exiting the northern and central Rockies will
steer a moist back door front southwestward through the fire weather
forecast area Sunday night. The front should reach the AZ border by
Monday evening as the high pressure system aloft sinks over
southwest NM in route to AZ. There will be an uptick in thunderstorm
coverage and rainfall intensity starting over the northeast as early
as Sunday night, then across much of the forecast area Monday and
Tuesday as the high pressure system migrates west of NM and moist
easterly and southeasterly low level flow persist over our state.
High temperatures will also fall near or closer to normal with the
front and increasing precipitation coverage.

The subtropical high is forecast to stay west of NM through at least
the middle of the coming week enabling a moist airmass to remain in
place. North and northwest flow aloft will cross NM on the back side
of the ridge, and weak disturbances embedded in the flow are likely
to trigger daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. There may also
be additional back door cold fronts penetrating the forecast area,
but current model runs don't bring another one down until next
weekend.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...
 NMZ534>538.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
648 AM MDT Fri Jul 20 2018

UPDATED TO MENTION THE RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAT TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND

NMZ501>540-211300-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
648 AM MDT Fri Jul 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Excessive heat is expected today along and east of a line from
Roswell to Fort Sumner to Tucumcari. Farther west, a few
thunderstorms could contain locally heavy rain this afternoon with a
slight risk of flash flooding below burn scars in the northern and
western mountains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Excessive heat is likely to persist across east central and southeast
areas through the weekend as a high pressure system strengthens
overhead.

Isolated to numerous thunderstorms are expected Monday through
Thursday of next week. Storm motions will be slow and rainfall will
be heavy at times. This may lead to localized areas of flash
flooding, especially over and near recent burn scars. Isolated
locations will receive up to 2 inches of rainfall. A few storms may
also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

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