Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Albuquerque, NM

875 
WGUS75 KABQ 180256
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
856 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2018

NMC039-043-045-180306-
/O.CAN.KABQ.FF.W.0043.000000T0000Z-180718T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Rio Arriba-Sandoval-San Juan-
856 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN RIO ARRIBA...NORTHWESTERN
SANDOVAL AND SOUTHEASTERN SAN JUAN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3626 10755 3624 10752 3619 10753 3615 10757
      3620 10767 3624 10767 3626 10769 3631 10775
      3633 10776 3628 10762

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 PM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Shower and storm activity has stuck to the northern higher terrain
with building cumulus over the southern two thirds of NM remaining
fairly confined to the higher terrain. Tstm activity will gradually
die down across the north over the next few hours. An outflow
boundary is expected to bring gusty winds perhaps as high as 25kts to
KFMN from the E by 01Z. Another outflow boundary is emanating from
storms over NE New Mexico, perhaps pushing as far as KTCC. Winds will
calm overnight with debris clouds hanging through to sunrise. Building
cumulus confined to the higher terrain is expected again by late
Tuesday morning.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 PM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is currently centered near the California-Nevada
border, extending into parts of Arizona and New Mexico. This is
keeping light winds aloft over northern and western New Mexico where
slow-moving thunderstorms have developed. These will continue to move
sluggishly and erratically into the evening before gradually
diminishing. Storms through the remainder of the week are expected to
continue favoring the higher terrain of northern and western New
Mexico as high pressure slowly moves over the Land of Enchantment.
Storms will be fewer than day's past with a gradual drying of the
atmosphere and warmer temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper high centered near the high Sierra of CA and into NV
also has elongated along a west-east axis, draping itself over our
forecast area. A weak deformation zone aloft exists over northern
parts of the state, posing erratic light winds aloft. The other
notable feature aloft is the inverted trough, or easterly wave, that
is currently moving across Sonora. A slug of dry air aloft wrapped
around the northern periphery of this trough/wave and has limited
storm coverage over the southeastern half of the state with the
moisture gradient acting as a storm trigger. In the northeastern
corner a residual surface outflow boundary from last night's
convection has been a focal point for convective initiation. Storms
will continue to initiate from these features into the evening with
new mesoscale cold pool collisions redeveloping new storms.

Into Wednesday, the upper high strengthens over NV, wrapping a
northerly wind component aloft into NM while also allowing some drier
air to spill into northern forecast zones. This will push the best
moisture and prospects for storms to west central NM with a more
uniform north to south storm motion. Temperatures will start climbing
3 to 5 degrees above today's readings and nudging above seasonal
averages due to the drier air, less storm coverage, and fewer clouds.

On Thursday, the high center drifts closer to the Four Corners with
possibly a secondary centroid attempting to take shape over the
eastern NM and west TX border. This will introduce a lighter wind
flow aloft and complicate storm motions, but the best moisture will
be situated over west central to southwestern NM again where higher
storm chances will be. Temperatures will continue to rise with the
stronger 596-597 decameter pressure heights building over us at
500mb. Look for highs to run 3 to 10 degrees above normal outside of
the west central and southwestern zones.

The high orbits close to NM into the weekend with storms continuing
to generally favor the northern and western high country. High
temperatures will stay close to normal in the west, but readings in
the east will remain 5 to 10 degrees above average. There is some
potential for moisture to creep up in the east by Sunday, and this
could introduce scattered storms with localized spots of temperature
relief. There is potential that a surface boundary could re-
invigorate storms in eastern NM into early next week.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Significantly drier mid level air has continued to spread across the
southern 1/2 of NM today, and coverage of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and this evening will be primarily across northern and
west central NM. In these areas, scattered thunderstorms will move
slowly due to light winds aloft, and the threat of flash flooding
will once again be present, especially in the northern mountains.
Ventilation rates this afternoon will be fair to poor across western,
north central and potions of south central NM and fair to good
elsewhere. Minimum relative humidity this afternoon will be in the
upper teens to middle 20s in the eastern plains and 25 to 40 percent
across the rest of the area. With ample low level moisture, relative
humidity recovery tonight will range from good across the eastern
plains and south central NM to very good to excellent across the
remainder of the region.

Strong upper level high pressure centered over the southern Great
Basin will expand eastward over NM Wednesday. Warming and drying air
in the mid levels Wednesday will further reduce the coverage of
showers and thunderstorms with isolated activity primarily in the
higher terrain of northern and western NM. Winds under the strong
high pressure aloft Wednesday will be light and generally less than
10 mph. Ventilation rates will be poor to fair across portions of
southwest, west central and north central NM Wednesday and will be
fair elsewhere. High temperatures Wednesday will be slightly above
normal west of the central mountains and well above normal east of
the central mountains. The center of the upper level high will move
eastward over southern CO Thursday. Moisture drawn around the
southern periphery of the upper high will move across western NM with
isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms expected
across southwest and west central NM. Ventilation rates will be poor
to fair Thursday from the Middle Rio Grande Valley northward across
north central NM and fair to good elsewhere. High temperatures
Thursday will be above average areawide with continued light winds.

The upper high will be centered over eastern NM Friday with another
very warm to hot day, light winds and scattered showers and
thunderstorms west of the Continental Divide. The upper high will
shift slightly eastward over west TX Saturday, and moisture will
circulate across western NM and northern NM, where isolated showers
and thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon. High temperatures
will be well above normal Saturday with light winds across central
and western NM and south winds 10 to 15 mph across the eastern
plains. As the upper high shifts back to the west over western NM
Sunday, a weak disturbance will cross northern NM. This feature
should increase showers and thunderstorms activity to scattered
across northern NM Sunday afternoon and evening. As the upper high
continues to drift to the west into eastern AZ Monday, a strong
backdoor cold front is projected to cross eastern and central NM
Monday and Monday night. The cold front is expected to recharge
moisture from eastern NM to the Continental Divide with increasing
coverage of showers and thunderstorms expected Monday and Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

28

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for the following
zones... NMZ510>515.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
412 AM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018

NMZ501>540-181100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
412 AM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
tonight over western and northern areas. Storm motions will be slow
and rainfall could be heavy. This may lead to localized areas of
flash flooding, especially over and near recent burn scars. Locations
that have received heavy rainfall recently will also be more
susceptible to flash flooding. Isolated locations will receive 1 to
2 inches or more of rainfall. A few storms may also produce small
hail and wind gusts to 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorm activity will generally be less compared to recent days
from Wednesday into the weekend. However, isolated thunderstorms may
still produce torrential downpours with localized flash flooding a
concern through early next week, especially on recent burn scars.
Thunderstorm chances will trend up early next week, especially
across the east.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report heavy rain and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit
storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using
the hashtag nmwx.

40

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
529 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2018

NMZ504-180000-
Northwest Highlands-
529 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL RIO ARRIBA COUNTY
UNTIL 600 PM MDT...

At 529 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Lindrith, or 31 miles south of Dulce, moving south at
10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Rio
Arriba County.

Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3657 10710 3657 10708 3659 10705 3657 10693
      3630 10693 3636 10726 3659 10715
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 012DEG 7KT 3648 10706

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