Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS Albuquerque, NM

237 
WGUS75 KABQ 160613
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1213 AM MDT MON JUL 16 2018

NMC053-160715-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-180716T0715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Socorro-
1213 AM MDT MON JUL 16 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM MDT FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTY...

At 1209 AM MDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms continuing to 
produce light to moderate rain along and west of Interstate 25 
between San Antonio and Bosque del Apache. Over three inches of rain 
have already fallen in this area. Flash flooding is expected to 
begin shortly or may already be occurring. County Roads 85, 128 and 
A85 as well as Ryan Hill Canyon, Sawmill Canyon and Walnut Creek 
will be especially susceptible to flash flooding. 

Other locations that will experience flooding include... 
Bosque Del Apache Refuge.

Additional rainfall amounts of less than one quarter inch are 
possible in the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flash flooding.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where water covers the roadway.
The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3397 10714 3396 10700 3393 10692 3391 10682
      3380 10684 3368 10691 3377 10707

$$

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035 
WGUS75 KABQ 160708
FFSABQ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
108 AM MDT MON JUL 16 2018

NMC053-160718-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-180716T0715Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Socorro-
108 AM MDT MON JUL 16 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 115 AM MDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3397 10714 3396 10700 3393 10692 3391 10682
      3380 10684 3368 10691 3377 10707

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
559 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Scattered convection to continue through evening before diminishing.
Storms may continue past 16/06Z across east-central NM including
KTCC, where a backdoor boundary is forecast to stall. Stronger storms
are capable of producing strong outflow wind gusts near 40 kt, occl
to frequent lightning, and brief IFR conditions in heavy rainfall and
small hail. Another round of sct convection on tap for Monday,
perhaps with a few strong storms over northeast NM where the above
mentioned boundary gets forced back northward.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...220 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered to numerous storms are once again forming over the higher
terrain before moving over lower elevations later this evening. The
threat of heavy rain and localized flooding remains today, and again
with Monday's storm coverage. Monday will see storms drift more to
the west. Storm coverage trends down Tuesday and through the rest of
this week, as high pressure trends high temperatures up. Portions of
eastern New Mexico will see highs reach above 100 by Wednesday. Storm
activity is still expected each day, however more limited to the
higher terrain and ending earlier in the evenings. Despite the
lighter storm coverage, any storm that does develop will still be
capable of producing heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Convection this afternoon is once again forming over the higher
terrain with slow storm motions off to the SW/W. An MCV over southern
AZ is keeping the healthiest crop of storms going over southern and
western NM today with mid-level drier air somewhat limiting the scope
of storms over northern NM. Isold-sct storms are also possible
across southeast portions of the CWA along sfc bdries. Storm activity
will gradually calm heading into Monday morning, with the exception
of the far NE highlands. An outflow enhanced frontal bdry is expected
to make its way south from CO here, likely keeping storm activity
going into the late night. Short range models are still struggling
with the timing of this frontal push, nevertheless have expanded the
Flash Flood Watch to include the NM Sangre's earlier this morning
to cover the burn scar threat. Later shifts may take a look at
further expansion to the Raton Ridge, but storm motions will likely
be fast enough to not warrant concern.

An easterly wave over eastern TX will traverse southern NM Monday
keeping afternoon storm coverage going, again focusing over the
higher terrain in the early afternoon before expanding to lower
elevations over central and western NM. Storm motion will be a little
bit better to the W.

Storm coverage trends down starting Tuesday with temperatures
trending up by Wednesday as high pressure builds over NM. Highs will
be back above normal state wide with 100s popping up over eastern NM
and low to mid 90s in valley locations of central and western NM.
Storm activity will still continue as enough monsoon moisture will
linger beneath the ridge, however coverage is expected to be
substantially less. Storm activity will as usual still focus over the
higher terrain first, before becoming outflow dominated over lower
elevations in the evenings. The ridge will limit the spread of
convection in the evenings, however the storms that do form will
still have the potential to produce heavy rainfall and localized
flash flooding.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Abundant moisture, afternoon heating, and weak steering flow has
generated another crop of showers and storms with locally heavy
rainfall this afternoon. Storm motions will be slow toward the west-
northwest south of I-40 and west-southwest north of I-40. Showers
and storms are expected to taper off later this evening over western
NM but continue through tonight over eastern NM where a wind shift
slides into the area. More storms with locally heavy rainfall are on
tap Monday and Tuesday as deep moisture remains in place over the
state.

The overall coverage of storms will decrease Wednesday through
Friday as strong upper level high pressure develops over southern
Colorado. There will still be daily rounds of storms with heavy
rainfall but footprints will be smaller and more confined to the
higher terrain. Storm motion will be nearly stationary so flash
flooding will remain a strong possibility. Any storms that slide
into nearby highlands and valleys will occur on outflow boundary
interactions. Temperatures will warm above normal with minimum
humidity trending into the teens and low 20s for most of the area.

Latest models are indicating the upper high will shift west by the
weekend and allow a moist back door front to shift into eastern NM.
This would bring another uptick in storm coverage with heavy rains.

Guyer

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones...
NMZ513>515.

Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for the following
zones... NMZ506-508-526.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
331 AM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018

NMZ501>540-161200-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-San Juan Mountains-Jemez Mountains-
West Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Northern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet/Red River-
Southern Sangre de Cristos above 9500 feet-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Lower Chama River Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains-Estancia Valley-
Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-Upper Tularosa Valley-
South Central Mountains-Raton Ridge/Johnson Mesa-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
331 AM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today through this
evening. Storm motions will be slow and rainfall could become heavy.
This may lead to localized areas of flash flooding, especially over
and near recent and older burn scars across western New Mexico. Areas
that have also seen heavy rainfall recently will also be more
susceptible to flash flooding. Isolated locations may receive up to
2 inches of rainfall. A few storms may also produce small hail and
wind gusts to 50 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected again on Monday.
Slow storm motions and heavy rainfall may lead to localized
areas of flash flooding, especially over and near recent burn scars
and within urban drainage systems. A few storms may also produce
small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph. After Monday, storm coverage
will decrease, though isolated locations may still receive heavy
rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit
storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using
the hashtag nmwx.

34

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
523 PM MDT SUN JUL 15 2018

NMZ520-524-152345-
South Central Highlands-Lower Rio Grande Valley-
523 PM MDT SUN JUL 15 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM MDT...

At 522 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles north of Bingham, or 30 miles east of Socorro, moving west at
15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Socorro County.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3419 10633 3402 10625 3393 10652 3413 10660
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 069DEG 14KT 3408 10638

40

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
535 PM MDT SUN JUL 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 ESE UTE PARK          36.54N 105.02W
07/15/2018                   COLFAX             NM   NMDOT

            NMDOT RELAYED REPORTS OF BURN SCAR DEBRIS FROM MODERATE
            RAINFALL ON U.S. 64 BETWEEN MM 301 AND 303.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ201800723

RJH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1019 PM MDT SUN JUL 15 2018

NMZ508-520-160445-
Southwest Mountains-Lower Rio Grande Valley-
1019 PM MDT SUN JUL 15 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SOCORRO COUNTY UNTIL 1045
PM MDT...

At 1019 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Socorro, moving south at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bosque Del Apache Refuge.

This includes Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 127 and 138.

If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3401 10718 3402 10694 3377 10682 3374 10725
TIME...MOT...LOC 0419Z 347DEG 11KT 3394 10703

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