Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
601 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017

Update to expire the Heat Advisory for Tripp county. Rest of
forecast on track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017

Upper level analysis has mainly zonal flow across the northern
Rockies and northern Plains. Skies are clear with the exception of
some cumulus development and towering cumulus over the Black
Hills. At the surface, low pressure was located across southwest
Manitoba, with a cold front running south through central ND and
western SD. Temperatures at 2PM across the forecast area are in
the mid 80s to upper 90s, and winds are breezy northwest behind
the front, and breezy west to southwest ahead.

Tonight into Wednesday...There will be a better chance for
showers and a few storms tonight and early Wednesday as the next
disturbance passes over the area. With instability relatively low
across much of the the area overnight, shower activity should be
on the light side.

Wednesday will be a little cooler behind the front, with highs in
the mid 80s to lower 90s. After morning shower activity tapers
off, there will be a chance for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms across much of the area. A few storms could be on
the strong side, with gusty winds and hail, especially across the
Black Hills and adjacent plains.

The rest of the week and the weekend look to be on the drier side,
with mostly isolated thunderstorm activity expected at times,
especially over the Black Hills. The heat will return as the ridge
and high pressure rebuild over the intermountain west and the
Rockies. Highs will be back in the 90s to around 100 from Thursday
through the weekend, with triple digit highs a good possibility
across much of the plains early next week.

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 133 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period. Another
impulse will bring SCT-ISOLD TS to the area this evening and
overnight. Gusty winds can be expected in/near any TS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 133 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period. Another
impulse will bring SCT-ISOLD TS to the area this evening and
overnight. Gusty winds can be expected in/near any TS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

Update...Johnson
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...Johnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
625 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-121300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Fall River-
Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-
Western Crook-Wyoming Black Hills-Weston-Northeastern Crook-
625 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017 /725 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017/

This Hazardous weather outlook is for western South Dakota and
Northeastern Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly this evening and
overnight. Strong winds will be the main threat from
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Hot and mainly dry weather will continue. Isolated thunderstorms
are possible at times. Isolated strong to severe storms will be
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
419 PM MDT TUE JUL 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W SCENIC              43.78N 102.63W
07/11/2017  E60 MPH          PENNINGTON         SD   PUBLIC

&&

ME

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
643 PM MDT TUE JUL 11 2017

WYZ054-120130-
Northern Cambell WY-
643 PM MDT TUE JUL 11 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CAMPBELL COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM MDT...

At 642 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Spotted Horse, or 44 miles east of Sheridan,
moving east at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Spotted Horse and Recluse.

LAT...LON 4500 10581 4500 10551 4452 10557 4461 10601
      4499 10602
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 279DEG 32KT 4480 10605

Eagan

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
725 PM MDT TUE JUL 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNE RECLUSE           44.75N 105.70W
07/11/2017  M55 MPH          CAMPBELL           WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0710 PM     HAIL             1 NNE RECLUSE           44.75N 105.70W
07/11/2017  E0.70 INCH       CAMPBELL           WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JJ