Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Rapid City, SD

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1158 AM MDT Sat Aug 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM MDT Sat Aug 26 2017

Broad upper ridging is strengthening across the SW quadrant of the
CONUS with northwest flow aloft across the northern Great Plains.
Surface analysis shows weak low pressure over central WY which will
be the focus for storms development today. Surface obs also showing
fog across the Pine Ridge reservation through central SD.
Today...low clouds and fog will lift through mid morning. Surface
low over Wyoming will slide eastward into western SD this
afternoon...also drawing in cooler air from MT. Good theta e
advection ahead of the low over the SD plains along with a weak
upper wave crossing the area will trigger storm development mostly
across western SD. MLCAPE values will be weak to moderate with
values reaching 1000-1800 J/kg. However deep shear will be much
better today with bulk shear reaching 35-50kt...so strong to severe
storms are expected this afternoon and evening. The best chances
will be ahead of the surface low over the western SD plains. PWATs
will be 150% of normal so some locally heavy rainfall will also
be possible. Drier air will push in behind the surface low this
evening with storms moving east of the area.

Upper ridging will build across the northern Plains Sunday with
strong surface high centered over the Dakotas. Dry weather is
expected through at least the first half of the next week. Highs
will be in the 80s to low 90s daily. Active zonal flow is then
progged to move into the region for the second half of the work
week bringing back some chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday)
Issued At 1156 AM MDT Sat Aug 26 2017

Another round of thunderstorms expected this afternoon, esp from
the Blkhls eastward. Local MVFR-IFR conds, hail, and gusty winds
possible in TS. VFR conditions expected late tonight as
thunderstorms push to the east. Some thunder may linger in south
central SD into early Sunday morning.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
602 AM MDT Sat Aug 26 2017

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ057-071-
271300-
Harding-Perkins-Butte-Northern Meade Co Plains-Ziebach-
Northern Black Hills-Northern Foot Hills-Rapid City-
Southern Foot Hills-Central Black Hills-Southern Black Hills-
Custer Co Plains-Pennington Co Plains-Haakon-Fall River-
Oglala Lakota-Jackson-Bennett-Mellette-Todd-Tripp-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills-Southern Meade Co Plains-
Hermosa Foot Hills-Wyoming Black Hills-Northeastern Crook-
602 AM MDT Sat Aug 26 2017 /702 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017/

This Hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
South Dakota...the Black Hills of South Dakota...western South
Dakota...northeast Wyoming...and the Black Hills of Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

There is a chance of thunderstorms today. Severe thunderstorms
will be possible with large hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

WYZ054>056-058-271300-
Northern Campbell-Southern Campbell-Western Crook-Weston-
602 AM MDT Sat Aug 26 2017

This Hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA weather radio for further updates...or check
our web site at weather.gov/rapidcity

JC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1223 PM MDT SAT AUG 26 2017

SDZ024-026-028-072-261915-
Northern Black Hills SD-Central Black Hills SD-
Sturgis/Piedmont Foot Hills SD-Rapid City SD-
1223 PM MDT SAT AUG 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEADE...SOUTHEASTERN
LAWRENCE AND CENTRAL PENNINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM MDT...

At 1223 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Nemo, or 13 miles northwest of Rapid City, moving southeast at 15
mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rapid City, Black Hawk, Summerset, Nemo, Piedmont and Dalton Lake.

This Includes Interstate 90 in South Dakota between Mile Markers 43
and 58.

LAT...LON 4418 10359 4429 10350 4419 10317 4401 10328
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 299DEG 11KT 4419 10347

Rudge

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