Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
220 PM MST Mon Jul 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS...The weather pattern will remain favorable for daily
thunderstorms most days this week. With the moisture, high
temperatures will generally be near or below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The Tucson morning upper-air sounding indicated some
warming in the mid-levels with a slightly drier air mass in place
today compared to over the weekend. The steering flow remained
rather weak, so still looking at slow moving thunderstorms. Given
the saturated soils in many locations and elevated PW values, runoff
problems and a flash flooding will remain a concern for today. The
sounding profile supported strong outflow winds in addition to the
heavy rainfall potential. After today, models were still advertising
a favorable flow pattern for daily showers and thunderstorms this
week. Latest operational GFS and GEFS solutions lean toward more
coverage in rainfall late tomorrow into Wednesday. This looked
reasonable based on a couple of subtle disturbances tracking
northwest over Mexico that could influence the area around tuesday
night and Wednesday. Otherwise, high temperatures will hover around
normal through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 02/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds above 10k ft AGL with isolated to scattered TSRA/SHRA
through late this evening at all terminals. Brief MVFR
cigs/visibilities possible in/near TSRA. SFC wind variable in
direction mainly less than 12 kts, except in the vicinity of TSRA
where gusts may exceed 40 kts. More TSRA developing Tuesday.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Fire weather concerns are low through the next week.
Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will persist this week across
most of southeast Arizona. Daytime temperatures will generally be at
or below normal with elevated relative humidities. Outside of gusty
thunderstorm winds, expect 20-foot winds to remain at or below 15
mph and follow typical upslope/down valley diurnal patterns.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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