Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2017
Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this special weather statement at Jul 16, 2017, 6:39 PM MST. It was in force for 21 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 16, 2017, 6:39 PM MST (01:39 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 16, 2017, 7:00 PM MST
- In force
- 21 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
The radar
The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 132 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 1.7 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 629 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -116 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2295 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 11 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 4 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 62 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 16, 2:48 PM MST, 3 hours 51 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 2:48 PM MST, 3 hours 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 248 PM MST Sun Jul 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight followed by widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms Monday. Heavy rainfall will occur with the stronger thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will then prevail Tuesday into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Starting up nicely today with fat juicy storms. Watch for potential underestimation of precip by radar. Another outflow trying to push southwest out of the Rim country, but heavy precip is shaping up as our biggest concern. Plenty of moisture, a decent easterly component to our flow, and the proximity of a weak inverted trough immediately east and southeast of the area will continue this busy thunderstorm period. Precipitable water ranging from 1.45 to 1.7 inches across the area with surface dew points in the mid to upper 60s. The 12Z KTWC sounding showed plenty of conditional instability and favorable conditions for strong outflows from the northeast and east. We will continue to be vulnerable to organized thunderstorm activity from afternoon to late evening hours. With the proximity of the inverted trough and weak easterly impulses combined with a steady flow, we will also tend to reload the atmosphere more quickly than usual between event periods. Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening, and another day with marginal severe from SPC looks good. Monday looks like a good chance of precip, but with the strong potential for another overnight period, and possibly extending into the morning hours, what form will it take? Right now the bet is for scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms and a continued heavy rain threat. We could reset once again for another solid thunderstorm day though. Depending on timing of activity over the next 36 hours, Tuesday could be down as we work through what's left of the inverted trough. Beyond that, it doesn't really look like it's going to let up, with high pressure in a favorable position to continue to allow a deep fetch of moisture into the area along with keeping things open for easterly wave activity. && .AVIATION...Valid thru 18/00Z. Scattered to numerous TSRA/SHRA this afternoon into tonight, and redeveloping tomorrow. Brief gusts to 45 kts will occur with the strongest TSRA. Otherwise, VFR conditions with surface wind variable in direction mainly less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon and evening hours through Tuesday. Somewhat less coverage of thunderstorms should occur west of Tucson later this week. However, ample moisture will still produce isolated thunderstorms west of Tucson with scattered thunderstorms from Tucson eastward Wednesday into next weekend. Daytime temperatures will be at least a few degrees below seasonal normals this week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for AZZ501>515. && Meyer/Zell Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 16, 4:22 PM MST, 2 hours 17 minutes before
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</html>Local storm report, Jul 16, 4:23 PM MST, 2 hours 16 minutes before
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</html>Special weather statement, Jul 16, 4:37 PM MST, 2 hours 2 minutes before
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</html>Special weather statement, Jul 16, 5:35 PM MST, 1 hour 4 minutes before
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</html>Special weather statement, Jul 16, 6:36 PM MST, 3 minutes before
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</html>Special weather statement, Jul 16, 6:39 PM MST, 0 minutes before
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</html>The office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 5:35 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | TWC | Pinal | 55 min |
| Jul 16, 6:00 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pinal | 60 min |
| Jul 16, 6:31 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | TWC | Pinal | 3 hr |
| Jul 16, 6:34 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | TWC | Pima | 56 min |
| Jul 16, 6:36 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | TWC | 39 min | |
| Jul 16, 6:42 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | TWC | Pima | 48 min |
| Jul 16, 6:59 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | TWC | Pinal | 61 min |
| Jul 16, 7:25 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | TWC | 65 min | |
| Jul 16, 7:27 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | TWC | 33 min | |
| Jul 16, 8:12 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | TWC | Pima | 33 min |
| Jul 16, 8:56 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Graham | 3 hr |
| Jul 16, 9:04 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | TWC | Pima, Pinal | 3 hr |
| Jul 16, 9:23 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | TWC | Graham | 67 min |
| Jul 16, 10:34 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | TWC | Pima, Pinal | 3 hr |
| Jul 17, 12:35 AM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | TWC | Pinal | 3 hr |
| Jul 17, 4:41 AM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Santa Cruz | 3 hr |
| Jul 17, 7:47 AM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | TWC | Santa Cruz | 118 min |
| Jul 17, 1:01 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | TWC | 59 min | |
| Jul 17, 1:04 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | TWC | Santa Cruz | 41 min |
| Jul 17, 1:58 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | TWC | Cochise, Pima | 2 hr |
| Jul 17, 2:03 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 117 min |
| Jul 17, 2:07 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima, Pinal | 113 min |
| Jul 17, 2:12 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pinal | 33 min |
| Jul 17, 2:16 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | TWC | Cochise | 119 min |
| Jul 17, 3:00 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima, Pinal | 2 hr |
| Jul 17, 3:09 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima, Pinal | 51 min |
| Jul 17, 3:17 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 118 min |
| Jul 17, 3:40 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Graham | 23 min |
| Jul 17, 4:00 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | TWC | Pima, Pinal | 5 hr |
| Jul 17, 4:01 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 119 min |
| Jul 17, 4:02 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Graham, Pinal | 28 min |
| Jul 17, 4:54 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | TWC | Pinal | 51 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2017Every special weather statement in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.