Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2017

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 16, 2017

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this special weather statement at Jul 16, 2017, 6:39 PM MST. It was in force for 21 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 16, 2017, 6:39 PM MST (01:39 UTC)
Expired
Jul 16, 2017, 7:00 PM MST
In force
21 min
Issued by
NWS Tucson, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 132 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 1.7 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Phoenix, AZ at 00:00Z on 2017-07-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 629 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Phoenix, AZ at 00:00Z on 2017-07-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 4 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
629 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-116 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2295 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
11 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
4 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
62 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 16, 2:48 PM MST, 3 hours 51 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 2:48 PM MST, 3 hours 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
248 PM MST Sun Jul 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms this
afternoon into tonight followed by widespread showers with embedded
thunderstorms Monday. Heavy rainfall will occur with the stronger
thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will then prevail Tuesday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Starting up nicely today with fat juicy storms.
Watch for potential underestimation of precip by radar. Another
outflow trying to push southwest out of the Rim country, but heavy
precip is shaping up as our biggest concern.

Plenty of moisture, a decent easterly component to our flow, and
the proximity of a weak inverted trough immediately east and
southeast of the area will continue this busy thunderstorm period.
Precipitable water ranging from 1.45 to 1.7 inches across the
area with surface dew points in the mid to upper 60s. The 12Z KTWC
sounding showed plenty of conditional instability and favorable
conditions for strong outflows from the northeast and east. We
will continue to be vulnerable to organized thunderstorm activity
from afternoon to late evening hours. With the proximity of the
inverted trough and weak easterly impulses combined with a steady
flow, we will also tend to reload the atmosphere more quickly than
usual between event periods.

Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening, and another day with
marginal severe from SPC looks good.

Monday looks like a good chance of precip, but with the strong
potential for another overnight period, and possibly extending
into the morning hours, what form will it take? Right now the bet
is for scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms and a
continued heavy rain threat. We could reset once again for another
solid thunderstorm day though.

Depending on timing of activity over the next 36 hours, Tuesday
could be down as we work through what's left of the inverted
trough.

Beyond that, it doesn't really look like it's going to let up,
with high pressure in a favorable position to continue to allow a
deep fetch of moisture into the area along with keeping things
open for easterly wave activity.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 18/00Z.
Scattered to numerous TSRA/SHRA this afternoon into tonight, and
redeveloping tomorrow. Brief gusts to 45 kts will occur with the
strongest TSRA. Otherwise, VFR conditions with surface wind
variable in direction mainly less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
mainly during the afternoon and evening hours through Tuesday.
Somewhat less coverage of thunderstorms should occur west of Tucson
later this week. However, ample moisture will still produce isolated
thunderstorms west of Tucson with scattered thunderstorms from
Tucson eastward Wednesday into next weekend. Daytime temperatures
will be at least a few degrees below seasonal normals this week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for AZZ501>515.

&&

Meyer/Zell

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 16, 4:22 PM MST, 2 hours 17 minutes before
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Local storm report, Jul 16, 4:23 PM MST, 2 hours 16 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jul 16, 4:37 PM MST, 2 hours 2 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jul 16, 5:35 PM MST, 1 hour 4 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jul 16, 6:36 PM MST, 3 minutes before
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Special weather statement, Jul 16, 6:39 PM MST, 0 minutes before
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The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 16, 5:35 PM MSTSpecial Weather StatementTWCPinal55 min
Jul 16, 6:00 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCPinal60 min
Jul 16, 6:31 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryTWCPinal3 hr
Jul 16, 6:34 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryTWCPima56 min
Jul 16, 6:36 PM MSTSpecial Weather StatementTWC39 min
Jul 16, 6:42 PM MSTSpecial Weather StatementTWCPima48 min
Jul 16, 6:59 PM MSTSpecial Weather StatementTWCPinal61 min
Jul 16, 7:25 PM MSTSpecial Weather StatementTWC65 min
Jul 16, 7:27 PM MSTSpecial Weather StatementTWC33 min
Jul 16, 8:12 PM MSTSpecial Weather StatementTWCPima33 min
Jul 16, 8:56 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCGraham3 hr
Jul 16, 9:04 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryTWCPima, Pinal3 hr
Jul 16, 9:23 PM MSTSpecial Weather StatementTWCGraham67 min
Jul 16, 10:34 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryTWCPima, Pinal3 hr
Jul 17, 12:35 AM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryTWCPinal3 hr
Jul 17, 4:41 AM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCSanta Cruz3 hr
Jul 17, 7:47 AM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryTWCSanta Cruz118 min
Jul 17, 1:01 PM MSTSpecial Weather StatementTWC59 min
Jul 17, 1:04 PM MSTSpecial Weather StatementTWCSanta Cruz41 min
Jul 17, 1:58 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryTWCCochise, Pima2 hr
Jul 17, 2:03 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCPima117 min
Jul 17, 2:07 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCPima, Pinal113 min
Jul 17, 2:12 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCPinal33 min
Jul 17, 2:16 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryTWCCochise119 min
Jul 17, 3:00 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCPima, Pinal2 hr
Jul 17, 3:09 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCPima, Pinal51 min
Jul 17, 3:17 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCPima118 min
Jul 17, 3:40 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCGraham23 min
Jul 17, 4:00 PM MSTAreal Flood AdvisoryTWCPima, Pinal5 hr
Jul 17, 4:01 PM MSTFlash Flood WarningTWCPima119 min
Jul 17, 4:02 PM MSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTWCGraham, Pinal28 min
Jul 17, 4:54 PM MSTSpecial Weather StatementTWCPinal51 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2017Every special weather statement in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.