Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1248 PM MST Thu Jul 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Expect scattered mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms through next week. Some thunderstorms will produce
locally heavy rainfall and very strong winds. As a result of the
storms, daily high temperatures will mostly be close to seasonal
normals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Active day shaping up with convection already
developing off to the east as anticipated. Current surface temperature
and dewpoint from KTUS plugged into the morning sounding gives CIN of
-26 and a CAPE of 2500 J/kg with no other adjustments. Definitely
 primed and ready.

As mentioned earlier, convective allowing models all pretty much
develop thunderstorms east and south of Tucson and push them to the
west with time with a shot off the Rim again this evening, with the
Tucson metro area getting in on the action, likely 5-7 pm. That is
beginning to play out with the early development so confidence is
pretty good at this time. Also may very well end up with a late night
convective complex across Pinal and central/western Pima as an extra
bonus. Beside the typical local flooding concerns with PWs as high as
we have, the shear environment will allow for the potential of local
severe level winds.

Friday will depend significantly on how quickly we clear out any
lingering cloudiness in order to reset the atmosphere. Better flow
aloft during the day but model soundings indicate less instability is
available although still good enough. All the ingredients are well
enough in place that SPC has us in a marginal risk category again.

Beyond that we remain in a rather good flow pattern with plenty of
moisture available for daily rounds of storms, and as is typical there
will be day to day differences to be dealt with. An additional
benefit with this pattern is that high temperatures will be held to
average or slightly below average levels.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 14/23Z.
-SHRA/-TSRA will cont across SE AZ thru early Friday morning. Brief
gusts near 45 kts with the strongest TSRA. Otherwise, VFR conds with
surface winds swly to nwly 8-18 kts and gusts to 25 kts into early
this evening, then dropping to 12 kts or less overnight. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will
prevail into the middle of next week. Expect brief strong, gusty
and erratic winds due to thunderstorm outflows. Otherwise, 20-
foot winds will generally be terrain driven at less than 15 mph.
Occasional gusts will occur during the afternoon hours due to
daytime heating. High temperatures will be close to seasonal
normals this week and increased moisture will result in moderate
relative humidity levels.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

PUBLIC...Cerniglia
AVIATION....Glueck
FIRE WEATHER...Glueck

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
505 PM MST THU JUL 13 2017

AZZ508-513-140100-
Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Eastern Cochise County Below 5000
Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
505 PM MST THU JUL 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL 600
PM MST...

At 504 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 20
miles southeast of Willcox, moving southwest at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sunizona and Pearce-Sunsites.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3211 10969 3201 10948 3169 10968 3183 10994
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 031DEG 11KT 3200 10965

French

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
606 PM MST THU JUL 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW BISBEE-DOUGLAS AI 31.45N 109.60W
07/13/2017  M63 MPH          COCHISE            AZ   ASOS

            GUST OF 55KTS FROM THE NORTH AT 537PM

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1700010

JKP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
613 PM MST THU JUL 13 2017

AZZ506-509-511-140200-
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including
Clifton/Safford-Southeast Pinal County including
Kearny/Mammoth/Oracle-Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains including Mount
Graham-
613 PM MST THU JUL 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GRAHAM AND EAST
CENTRAL PINAL COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MST...

At 612 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southwest of San Carlos Reservoir to
26 miles east of Mammoth. Movement was southwest at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and brief heavy rain will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Klondyke.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3297 11074 3262 11022 3288 11010 3315 11054
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 029DEG 12KT 3309 11056 3285 11022

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