Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
209 PM MST Tue Jun 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Very hot temperatures will continue across the area
through this weekend with near or record breaking temperatures
forecast. A modest increase in moisture will bring a chance of
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, but they will be more
likely to generate gusty outflow winds and lightning than
significant rain. A return to dry weather is forecast tomorrow
through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Despite extensive cloud cover earlier today, Tucson still managed to
crack the 110 degree mark today (high of 111 as of 19Z). Early
afternoon satellite imagery reveals mostly clear skies to the east
of Tucson and it's entirely conceivable that we could still climb
another 2-3 degrees before the day is over. Meanwhile, clouds have
started to build across the mountains of far eastern Arizona with a
number of showers and thunderstorms already going across southern
New Mexico.

Short term weather concerns are focused on several things, namely
storm chances and the potential for blowing dust. Nearly all
available convective allowing models (and ensembles) indicate
showers and storms developing near Safford and points northeast
through mid afternoon. However they also indicate most of the
activity will be slow moving and dissipate by the time they make
their way into the lower elevations near Tucson. Model MLCAPES drop
off a cliff by the time they would get to Tucson and it would appear
the chance of widespread precip in the deserts is low. Conversely,
this suggests a decent chance of blowing dust between Tucson and
Phoenix across parts of Pima and Pinal Co's and the Blowing Dust
Advisory will remain in effect until 8 pm this evening.

Convective activity is also possible on Wednesday although the
deeper moisture that we see overhead today should be focused more
along the AZ/NM border tomorrow. PoPs will remain in place in these
areas with slightly lower values in/around Tucson. Drier air will
return on Thursday with noticeably reduced precip chances to close
out the week. This dry air will limit any precip chances to the
mountains through the weekend, but it appears we will see a decent
return of moisture to the entire southeastern portion of AZ by
Monday/Tuesday of next week. Went with well above climo PoPs for
eastern Arizona late in the forecast period.

As for our ongoing heatwave, heat warnings and advisories will
remain in effect unchanged into the weekend. Still a little
uncertain with how bad things will be on Sunday. Parts of the area
will remain close to the 110 degree mark while it appears that
the aforementioned increase in moisture could knock temperatures
back a few degrees across eastern Arizona on Sunday. Will elect to
hold off extending any heat products into Sunday at this time but
it's certainly a possibility. Fortunately it appears temps will
retreat several degrees next week as dewpoints climb into the
low/mid 50s and take a chunk out of our heating potential.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 22/00Z.
Scattered -TSRA/-SHRA ending around 22/06Z. Isolated to scattered
-TSRA/-SHRA mainly east-to-south of KTUS Wednesday afternoon. Brief
gusts to 45 kts with the strongest TSRA. Otherwise, scattered clouds
8k-15k ft AGL with broken clouds above 15k ft AGL, and surface wind
variable in direction mainly less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered thunderstorms this evening
especially from Tucson eastward to the New Mexico border. The bulk
of these thunderstorms will likely end around midnight, then
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will occur Wednesday afternoon
mainly east to south of Tucson. Thunderstorm outflows will produce
brief strong, gusty and erratic winds.

Dry conditions will return area-wide Thursday and Friday.
Thereafter, a more favorable pattern for thunderstorm development
will return perhaps as early as Saturday, but more likely Sunday and
Monday. Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms should occur
Sunday and Monday, with the greatest coverage of thunderstorms
mainly east to south of Tucson.

Otherwise, 20-foot winds will generally be terrain driven less than
15 mph. The exception will likely be Thursday afternoon, when gusty
northwest winds should prevail, especially northeast of Tucson and
across the Upper Gila River Valley including Safford.

&&

.CLIMATE...
All time record highs across the region

                     RECORD_DATE AND YEAR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT  117 6/26/1990
BISBEE-DOUGLAS ARPT  110 6/26/1994
AJO                  117 7/5/2007, 7/6 2007 and 7/31/1995
FORT THOMAS          115 6/26/1990
KITT PEAK             98 7/30/1995
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS    118 7/15/1998, 7/26/1995 and 6/26/1990
PICACHO PEAK         119 7/28/1995
SAFFORD AG STATION   114 6/30/1994
SIERRA VISTA FD      108 7/4/1989
TOMBSTONE            112 7/4/1989
WILLCOX              110 6/28 AND 6/29/1994, 6/26/1990 and 7/6/2005

Daily record highs today through Thursday

DATE                      Jun 20     Jun 21     Jun 22
                          RCD/YR     RCD/YR     RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT      112/2016   112/1990   114/1988
BISBEE-DOUGLAS AIRPORT   106/1960   105/1990   106/1990
AJO                      115/1968   115/1919   115/1960
FORT THOMAS              111/1960   109/2005   112/1961
KITT PEAK                 93/1989    94/1979    92/1988
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS        115/1960   114/1968   113/1955
PICACHO PEAK             112/2008   116/2005   113/1988
SAFFORD AG STATION       111/1989   109/1960   108/1960
SIERRA VISTA FD          103/1989   103/1990   104/2012
TOMBSTONE                105/1990   106/1996   109/1929
WILLCOX                  106/1989   106/1968   106/1990

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM MST Saturday for AZZ510>514.

Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Saturday for AZZ501>509-
515.

Blowing Dust Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST this
evening for AZZ502-504>506.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
251 PM MST TUE JUN 20 2017

AZZ510-202230-
White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan
Meadow-
251 PM MST TUE JUN 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM MST...

At 250 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 29
miles southeast of Seven Mile, or 39 miles north of Safford, moving
north at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Point-Of-Pines.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3336 10962 3329 10982 3348 11000 3358 11000
      3357 10994 3358 10992 3357 10988 3355 10985
      3354 10985 3353 10982 3350 10981 3348 10981
      3348 10977 3352 10973 3356 10967 3357 10968
      3359 10964
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 158DEG 13KT 3340 10976

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