Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Tucson, AZ

262 
WWUS55 KTWC 300104
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
604 PM MST FRI SEP 29 2017

AZC003-300114-
/O.CAN.KTWC.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-170930T0115Z/
Cochise-
604 PM MST FRI SEP 29 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3189 10965 3206 10970 3207 10950 3192 10944
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 261DEG 12KT 3200 10946 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
249 PM MST Fri Sep 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered thunderstorms from near Tucson eastward
tonight. Isolated thunderstorms near the New Mexico border can be
expected on Saturday. Thereafter, expect dry and above normal
daytime temperatures. A chance of rain will return next Wednesday
for areas east of Tucson.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms continued to
develop this afternoon from just east of Tucson eastward. The
strongest thunderstorms have been north of Benson. These
thunderstorms should continue through the evening hours before
diminishing in coverage after sundown. Models were in good agreement
with shifting the deeper moisture east of the area as a broad trough
of low pressure deepens over the western United States. Dry
conditions with high temperatures about 4 to 6 degrees above normal
will prevail Sunday into at least late Tuesday. Thereafter, models
showed the broad trough over the western States weakening as an
amplified high pressure ridge over the southeastern United States
builds westward. Both the GFS and ECMWF models showed moisture
working back into eastern Arizona by next Wednesday as this high
pressure ridge becomes centered over the southern Plains. That said,
rain chances will return to areas east of Tucson the latter half of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 01/00Z.
SKC to SCT clouds 7-10k ft AGL thru the period from KTUS westward.
SCT-BKN clouds east of KTUS, with isolated -TSRA/-SHRA from near
KTUS eastward tonight. Surface wind ELY-SELY 5-15 kts east of KTUS
through this evening. Otherwise, surface wind 12 kts or less this
evening. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur from
near Tucson eastward this evening and once again Saturday along the
New Mexico border. Thereafter, dry conditions area-wide Sunday into
Tuesday. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms returns east
of Tucson by next Wednesday. Expect occasionally gusty east to
southeast winds especially east of Tucson into Saturday. Winds
become mainly terrain driven less than 15 mph on Sunday, increasing
during the beginning of next week out of the southwest.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
515 PM MST FRI SEP 29 2017

AZZ508-300045-
Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet including Douglas/Willcox-
515 PM MST FRI SEP 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COCHISE COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM MST...

At 514 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
northeast of Pearce-Sunsites, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph and blowing dust will be
possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly farm land areas of northeastern
Cochise County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Areas of blowing dust may briefly reduce visibilities to near or
below 1 mile. If you encounter localized dense blowing dust, do not
drive into it if at all possible.

&&

LAT...LON 3191 10968 3203 10977 3216 10963 3198 10946
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 238DEG 13KT 3200 10967