Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Tucson, AZ

195 
WWUS55 KTWC 102146
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
246 PM MST THU AUG 10 2017

AZC023-102215-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-170810T2215Z/
Santa Cruz-
246 PM MST THU AUG 10 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MST
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

At 245 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Nogales with 
another strong to severe storm near Rio Rico, moving north at 10 
to 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Nogales, Rio Rico Southwest, Rio Rico Southeast, Rio Rico Northwest,
Rio Rico Northeast, Rio Rico and Patagonia Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3149 11115 3150 11083 3133 11081 3133 11103
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 158DEG 8KT 3139 11095 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Meyer

516 
WWUS55 KTWC 102211
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
311 PM MST THU AUG 10 2017

AZC023-102219-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-170810T2215Z/
Santa Cruz-
311 PM MST THU AUG 10 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ
COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 315 PM MST...
        
The storm which prompted the severe warning over Nogales has moved 
out of the area.  However heavy runoff will continue across the area 
with a Flash Flood Warning in effect until 5 PM MST. Additional 
storm development is possible later in the afternoon and early 
evening.

LAT...LON 3149 11115 3150 11083 3133 11081 3133 11103
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 158DEG 8KT 3142 11096 

$$

Meyer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
133 PM MST Thu Aug 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture has returned to the region with
daily shower and thunderstorm activity continuing into next week.
As a result of the increase in moisture afternoon temperatures
will settle back to more average levels through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The 18Z sounding was rather respectable with shear
and instability which results in a potential for strong, well
structured storm development. Approaching MCV will help with
forcing this afternoon and evening. Currently the best low level
convergence is located across much of the southern most part of
the forecast area where storms are beginning to develop and the
best upper level divergence is across western Pima county where CA
Models are indicating significant development later today.
Overall feel the best "action" will occur across Pima, Santa Cruz
and western most Cochise county although can't rule out a storm
anywhere.

As the MCV continues to move north tonight combined with the
lingering moisture and left over instability all that should
allow for some overnight convection here and there although would
not expect it to be strong.

For Friday we will likely end up with a more down day as the MCV
will be north of the area leaving our area in an unfavorable
location for development. That said the low level moisture
combined with sunshine should be able to kick off at least some
activity Friday afternoon and then mainly over higher terrain.

This weekend we are expecting the activity to pick up again with a
moisture surge and a weak trough for a focusing mechanism. At this
range details are lacking so stay tuned. At least with all the
expected activity and moisture high temperatures should be
tempered some.

Looking further out ahead it appears that SW flow will develop over
the region allowing for drying to gradually take hold through the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 12/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 7k-12k ft AGL this afternoon/evening with
scattered to numerous TSRA/SHRA persisting thru 11/05Z then
ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/TSRA continuing through the night. MVFR ceilings
and visibilities near stronger TSRA along with strong and gusty
outflows possible with TSRA. After 11/15Z SCT-BKN 6-12k with
ISOLD-SCT -TSRA/-SHRA after 11/19Z. Outside of storms SFC winds
generally less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Active this evening with plenty of storms
expected, especially western areas. Then Friday is expected to be
more of a down monsoon day with fewer storms. Plenty of moisture
will be over the area this weekend which should result in plenty
of activity this weekend then slowly ramping down through next
week. Humidity levels will remain elevated through at least the
early part of next week with typical mid summer winds.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

PUBLIC...Cerniglia
AVIATION....Cerniglia
FIRE WEATHER...Cerniglia

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
214 PM MST THU AUG 10 2017

AZZ501-502-102200-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-Western Pima County Including
Ajo/Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument-
214 PM MST THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM MST...

At 213 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Organ Pipe National Monument, or 42 miles west of
Sells, moving north at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Organ Pipe National Monument, Ali Chuk, Lukeville, Gu Vo and Pia Oik.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3198 11299 3216 11254 3179 11243 3178 11251
      3189 11284
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 160DEG 13KT 3188 11259

Meyer