Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Tucson, AZ

878 
WWUS55 KTWC 222211
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
311 PM MST SAT JUL 22 2017

AZC009-011-222230-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-170722T2230Z/
Graham-Greenlee-
311 PM MST SAT JUL 22 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM MST
FOR EASTERN GRAHAM AND CENTRAL GREENLEE COUNTIES...

At 310 PM MST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Clifton, or 25
miles east of Safford, moving southwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Clifton, Morenci and Guthrie. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3301 10912 3286 10924 3293 10940 3313 10929
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 022DEG 5KT 3293 10927 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

GL

871 
WWUS55 KTWC 222228
SVSTWC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
328 PM MST SAT JUL 22 2017

AZC009-011-222237-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-170722T2230Z/
Graham-Greenlee-
328 PM MST SAT JUL 22 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN GRAHAM AND CENTRAL
GREENLEE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM MST...
        
The storm which prompted the warning near Clifton has weakened below 
severe limits, and has exited the warned area to the southwest. 
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy 
rain is still possible.

LAT...LON 3301 10912 3286 10924 3293 10940 3313 10929
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 121DEG 8KT 3294 10929 

$$

Meyer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
230 PM MST Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will prevail into early next week. The greatest
daily thunderstorm coverage should occur east to south of Tucson
with reduced thunderstorm activity across the western deserts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Activity got off to a quick start this morning with
first storm of the day popping up over the Chiricahua mountains
after 830 am which produced around 0.80" in less than an hour.
Mountain storms struggling to maintain themselves once they move
into lower elevations. With well above normal PW values in place,
between 1.60" and 1.85, heavy rain main threat this afternoon into
the evening hours, especially in the mountains. Thus went ahead and
hoisted a flash flood watch for areas east and south of Tucson.
The MCV mentioned in the morning discussion that was near Glenwood
NM in Catron county was over western Grant county in NM and drifting
south. For tonight scattered showers and thunderstorms, more
numerous east and south of Tucson. Tucson will have to rely on
outflow interactions for storms in the city.

Flow aloft becomes more E-SE later tonight as models move inverted
trof, which extended from NW NM to southern Sonora MX this morning.
Sunday has the potential to be rather gunked over for the bulk of
the day with showers around and embedded isolated thunderstorms.

High temperature forecast a challenge with MOS numbers rather cool
for July with lots of clouds around. At this time, the official
forecast high in Tucson for Sunday of 89 degrees would be the first
sub-90 high in July since 2010.

Monsoon train remains on the track next week, although there could a
slowdown day or two, while high temperatures warm back to late July
normal values.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 24/00Z.
Scattered to numerous TSRA/SHRA this afternoon/evening, then
isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA late tonight into early Sunday
morning. Scattered to numerous TSRA/SHRA developing again late
Sunday morning and afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions with cloud
decks generally 5k-10k ft AGL. Surface wind variable in direction
mainly less than 12 kts, except in the vicinity of TSRA where gusts
may exceed 45 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will continue into Monday with locally heavy rain and
strong winds. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
then expected Tuesday into next weekend. Temperatures will remain
below normal through Tuesday, with near normal readings the rest of
the week. 20-foot winds will remain below 15 mph with the exception
of strong outflow winds in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Flash Flood Watch until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ503-507>513.

&&

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