Blowing Dust Advisory 25, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
133 PM MST Thu Aug 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture has returned to the region with
daily shower and thunderstorm activity continuing into next week.
As a result of the increase in moisture afternoon temperatures
will settle back to more average levels through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The 18Z sounding was rather respectable with shear
and instability which results in a potential for strong, well
structured storm development. Approaching MCV will help with
forcing this afternoon and evening. Currently the best low level
convergence is located across much of the southern most part of
the forecast area where storms are beginning to develop and the
best upper level divergence is across western Pima county where CA
Models are indicating significant development later today.
Overall feel the best "action" will occur across Pima, Santa Cruz
and western most Cochise county although can't rule out a storm
anywhere.

As the MCV continues to move north tonight combined with the
lingering moisture and left over instability all that should
allow for some overnight convection here and there although would
not expect it to be strong.

For Friday we will likely end up with a more down day as the MCV
will be north of the area leaving our area in an unfavorable
location for development. That said the low level moisture
combined with sunshine should be able to kick off at least some
activity Friday afternoon and then mainly over higher terrain.

This weekend we are expecting the activity to pick up again with a
moisture surge and a weak trough for a focusing mechanism. At this
range details are lacking so stay tuned. At least with all the
expected activity and moisture high temperatures should be
tempered some.

Looking further out ahead it appears that SW flow will develop over
the region allowing for drying to gradually take hold through the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 12/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds at 7k-12k ft AGL this afternoon/evening with
scattered to numerous TSRA/SHRA persisting thru 11/05Z then
ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/TSRA continuing through the night. MVFR ceilings
and visibilities near stronger TSRA along with strong and gusty
outflows possible with TSRA. After 11/15Z SCT-BKN 6-12k with
ISOLD-SCT -TSRA/-SHRA after 11/19Z. Outside of storms SFC winds
generally less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Active this evening with plenty of storms
expected, especially western areas. Then Friday is expected to be
more of a down monsoon day with fewer storms. Plenty of moisture
will be over the area this weekend which should result in plenty
of activity this weekend then slowly ramping down through next
week. Humidity levels will remain elevated through at least the
early part of next week with typical mid summer winds.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

PUBLIC...Cerniglia
AVIATION....Cerniglia
FIRE WEATHER...Cerniglia

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
214 PM MST THU AUG 10 2017

AZZ501-502-102200-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-Western Pima County Including
Ajo/Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument-
214 PM MST THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM MST...

At 213 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Organ Pipe National Monument, or 42 miles west of
Sells, moving north at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Organ Pipe National Monument, Ali Chuk, Lukeville, Gu Vo and Pia Oik.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3198 11299 3216 11254 3179 11243 3178 11251
      3189 11284
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 160DEG 13KT 3188 11259

Meyer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
345 PM MST THU AUG 10 2017

AZZ501-502-102330-
Tohono O'odham Nation including Sells-Western Pima County Including
Ajo/Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument-
345 PM MST THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM MST...

At 344 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Ajo, or 39 miles south of Gila Bend, moving northwest
at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 mph and blowing dust will be
possible with this storm, followed by heavy rain.

Locations impacted include...
Ajo and Why.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall will also occur with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3251 11296 3250 11265 3227 11255 3226 11289
      3246 11305
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 154DEG 10KT 3239 11274

Meyer

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
448 PM MST THU AUG 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE DAVIS-MONTHAN AIR  32.23N 110.82W
08/10/2017                   PIMA               AZ   TWITTER

            SPEEDWAY/PANTANO... SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN AT APT
            COMPLEX... POWER LOST

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1700059

RH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
506 PM MST THU AUG 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SW ORO VALLEY         32.35N 111.04W
08/10/2017                   PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN ALONG INA/LA CHOLLA TO THORNYDALE

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1700060

RH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
511 PM MST THU AUG 10 2017

AZZ503-507-513-110100-
Upper San Pedro River Valley including Sierra
Vista/Benson-Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-
511 PM MST THU AUG 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE AND
SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM MST...

At 509 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Sierra Vista, moving northwest at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm as it comes
across the Mexico border toward the Huachuca Mountains.

Locations impacted include...
Sierra Vista, Palominas, Coronado National Memorial, Canelo,
Hereford, Nicksville, Parker Canyon Lake and Ramsey Canyon Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3156 11067 3157 11030 3133 10999 3133 11055
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 129DEG 21KT 3137 11028

Cerniglia