Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
638 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered thunderstorms will affect the northeast Oklahoma
over the next few hours. While showers and thunderstorms
will impact the western Arkansas later this evening and
possibly overnight as a cold front moves through the area.
Strong gusty northwest winds and stratus are expected to move
into the region behind the front overnight and continuing into Tuesday.
Went with ceilings around 2500 ft at the TAF sites, however
lower ceilings are a definite possibility.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 310 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over the next
couple of hours in the vicinity of a cold front that is now pushing
through central Oklahoma as the cap weakens. The airmass across eastern
Oklahoma has become increasingly unstable this afternoon as low level
moisture surges into the region with surface dew points now in the
the lower 60s to lower 70s. This has resulted in surface based
cape values in the 1500 to 2500 j/kg range. Deep layer shear continues to
strengthen this afternoon as a mid-level low begins to move out of
the rockies and into the plains. With that said, some of the storms
could become strong to severe this afternoon and into the evening
hours as the cold front moves into the region. While large hail and
damaging winds will be the main concern, there is a tornado threat
across northeast Oklahoma late this afternoon and early evening across
northeast Oklahoma as the associated surface low moves into the area. The
threat for severe weather will diminish later this evening as the storms
push east into the less favorable atmosphere. The overall chance of showers will
end later tonight into Tuesday morning as cold front shifts to the east
of the area and the mid-level pushes of to the northeast of the area.

Temperatures will be considerably cooler on Tuesday behind the front
with highs only in the 50s and 60s under mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures
will rebound late in the week and into the weekend as the low level
flow becomes southerly in advance of the next storm system to affect
the area as we move into Saturday night into Sunday. Will continue
low end showers and thunderstorm chances with this frontal boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  51  59  42 /  30  80  10   0
FSM   92  63  66  46 /  10  60  20   0
MLC   92  54  64  44 /  10  60  10   0
BVO   87  50  56  39 /  60  80  20   0
FYV   87  60  60  42 /  10  60  20   0
BYV   88  62  64  43 /  10  40  20  10
MKO   90  54  61  43 /  20  60  10   0
MIO   86  52  55  41 /  20  80  20   0
F10   90  52  61  43 /  20  60  10   0
HHW   93  58  69  47 /  10  50  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
447 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
447 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Late this Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly along and north of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...West of Highway 75 in eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Mainly after Midnight.

DISCUSSION...
There is an elevated risk of severe storms across northeast
Oklahoma late this afternoon and into the evening. Large hail
to 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds to 65 mph, and isolated
tornadoes will be possible. There is a limited risk of severe
storms over the remainder of eastern Oklahoma.

Scattered thunderstorms are developing late this afternoon
ahead of a cold front along and north of I-40. Storm coverage will
be more isolated along the front south of I-40. Increasing wind
shear ahead of an upper storm system, combined with increasing
instability as moisture streams north ahead of the front, will
yield an environment sufficient to support discrete rotating
storms during the late afternoon and evening hours. Low level
shear will be weak initially, but will strengthen during the early
evening hours. Thus, any sustained rotating storms could produce
a tornado during the early evening. Storms are expected to weaken
as they approach the Arkansas border by late evening as they
encounter a more stable environment.

The stronger thunderstorms will produce very heavy rainfall with rainfall
rates of around 1 inch per hour. Some areas across northeast Oklahoma could
see multiple rounds of thunderstorms this evening which will lead to locally
heavy rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches. This could lead to flooding of low lying areas.

Strong northwest winds, with gusts to 35 mph, will enter northeast
Oklahoma after midnight tonight. The strongest winds will be
confined to areas west of US highway 75.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
TUESDAY...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY through FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A cold front will approach the region this upcoming weekend,
bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms. The severe
weather risk appears minimal at this point based on the latest
data.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
737 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

OKZ055-056-100130-
Nowata OK-Washington OK-
737 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN
NOWATA COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 737 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles east of
Dewey, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Dewey...
South Coffeyville...              Copan...
Lenapah...                        Wann...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3686 9545 3670 9600 3687 9600 3700 9577
      3700 9555
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 233DEG 15KT 3682 9586

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
737 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

OKZ060-065-066-100100-
Tulsa OK-Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-
737 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OKMULGEE...SOUTH CENTRAL TULSA
AND EAST CENTRAL OKFUSKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 737 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 4 miles southeast of Mounds to 5 miles south of
Okmulgee State Park. Movement was northeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Okmulgee...                       Morris...
Beggs...                          Schulter...
Grayson...                        Preston...
Okmulgee State Park...            Bald Hill...
Liberty...                        Hectorville...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 225 and
228.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3586 9608 3586 9603 3587 9603 3590 9582
      3586 9582 3585 9581 3551 9584 3541 9622
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 245DEG 24KT 3582 9602 3553 9607

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
759 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

OKZ060-061-100115-
Tulsa OK-Rogers OK-
759 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROGERS AND
NORTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 759 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Owasso, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Northern Tulsa...                 Claremore...
Owasso...                         Catoosa...
Collinsville...                   Sperry...
Oologah...                        Turley...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3616 9584 3628 9598 3650 9572 3640 9554
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 223DEG 43KT 3628 9584

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
801 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

OKZ066-067-070-100130-
Muskogee OK-Okmulgee OK-Wagoner OK-
801 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WAGONER...
NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE AND NORTHEASTERN OKMULGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM
CDT...

At 801 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles north of
Morris, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Okmulgee...                       Haskell...
Morris...                         Porter...
Taft...                           Boynton...
Bald Hill...                      Wainwright...
Summit...                         Redbird...
Jamesville...                     Eram...
Choska...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southeastern, northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3570 9598 3596 9556 3566 9540 3555 9576
      3555 9582 3553 9582 3550 9592
TIME...MOT...LOC 0101Z 241DEG 38KT 3567 9585

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
824 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

OKZ056-057-061-062-100230-
Craig OK-Rogers OK-Nowata OK-Mayes OK-
824 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CRAIG...NORTHEASTERN
ROGERS...NORTHERN MAYES AND SOUTHEASTERN NOWATA COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM
CDT...

At 824 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Chelsea, moving
east at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Vinita...                         Chelsea...
Langley...                        Ketchum...
Bluejacket...                     Disney...
Big Cabin...                      Pensacola...
New Alluwe...                     Cherokee State Park...
White Oak...                      Bushyhead...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 267 and 292.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3645 9554 3668 9555 3683 9500 3646 9501
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 253DEG 22KT 3657 9546

69