Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few strong to severe storms are affecting northwest Arkansas but
will move quickly east/southeast. Conditions will be quickly
improving at KXNA, and there will be a period of MVFR conditions
as storms affect KROG/KFYV over the next two hours. Afternoon
cumulus field is diminishing across eastern Oklahoma, and the rest
of the terminals should remain storm free.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 249 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Agitated CU/TCU have formed across far eastern OK/western AR and
have recently see isolated convection develop across far northeast
OK. Hi-res models continue to differ with this activity...with the
operational HRRR remaining quite bullish with its coverage across
western AR into the early evening while the HRRRX keeps the
convection rather isolated. Regardless...instability and stronger
mid-level flow may support a few strong/severe storms into the
evening hours.

Will also need to keep an eye on potential convection developing
to our north overnight. Various model solutions suggest some of
this activity could peel off south...making a run toward northwest
AR later tonight/early Saturday.

Mid-level heights start to rise Sunday and especially into early
next week as the upper ridge bridges across the southeastern US
into the southern Plains. Could see some mainly afternoon
showers/thunderstorms...otherwise expect hot/humid conditions with
afternoon heat index values around 100-105F for most locations.

A northern stream upper wave and associated cold front should
arrive into the forecast area Tuesday night into Wednesday along
with increasing chances of showers/storms. ECMWF/GFS in agreement
that this boundary will push through the entire region later in
the week...along with drier/cooler conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  94  76  95 /  20  20  10  10
FSM   75  93  76  95 /  30  30  20  20
MLC   75  95  75  94 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   72  93  73  94 /  30  20  10  10
FYV   70  89  70  90 /  40  30  20  20
BYV   71  91  71  92 /  40  30  20  20
MKO   74  92  74  94 /  30  20  10  20
MIO   72  92  73  92 /  40  20  20  10
F10   74  93  74  95 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   74  96  75  94 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
AVIATION...06

CORFIDI

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
456 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
456 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed across far
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas from near Jay to Siloam
Springs, along an outflow boundary. These storms may be strong to
severe, with isolated hail and severe wind gusts possible.
Additional storms may form, mainly east and south of Tulsa.

Heat index values range from 100 to 105 across much of eastern
Oklahoma and parts of western Arkansas. There will be some relief
as we near sunset, as temperatures start to drop off, though
it will remain humid with dewpoints in the 70s.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.
MONDAY through WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue early Saturday with
decreasing storm chances from Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
Afternoon heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees will be common
over the weekend into early next week. Thunderstorm chances will
remain relatively low Sunday and Monday with increasing chances by
the middle of next week as a cold front moves through the area.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

CORFIDI

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