Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
648 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible mainly
over far Northeast Oklahoma this evening...while the majority of
ongoing activity in Central Oklahoma remains west of the CWA.
Additional thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Friday as
a MCS is forecast to move into the CWA ahead of a frontal boundary
approaching from the northwest. Periods of MVFR conditions and
gusty winds will be possible within the thunderstorms...with
continued MVFR periods possible behind the leading line of storms.
By Friday afternoon...conditions look to lift back to VFR over the
CWA from north to south. Some scattered convection will continue
to be possible Friday afternoon and will carry Prob30 groups.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 319 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An active period of weather is set to begin across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated through the middle of next week
with heavy rainfall and flooding an increasing concern. Will
hold off on issuing a Flash Flood Watch at this time but one will
more than likely be needed.

Thunderstorm chances will ramp up this evening and overnight as
a thunderstorm complex now gaining steam across northwest Oklahoma
spreads into eastern Oklahoma. These storms will have the potential
to be severe with strong gusty winds and large hail the main concern.
Locally heavy rain will also be of concern. This complex will likely
fade as it moves into southeast Oklahoma later this evening as the
storms move into the less favorable airmass.  Additional thunderstorms
are expected to develop near the frontal boundary across Kansas and
spread into the area overnight and into Friday. The main concern overnight
into Friday will be heavy rainfall.

As we move into Friday and into next week, the frontal boundary that is
currently across Kansas will sag into the area on Friday and stall near
the Red River Friday night into Saturday. This front will then linger
across the region into the middle of next week. This front along with
a series of mid-level shortwaves will provide the lift necessary for
several rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the region. As the
ground becomes more saturated the threat for flooding will increase.
Widespread rainfall totals during this time could be in the 4 to 6
inch range with locally higher amounts. There will continue to be a
limited severe weather threat during this time with strong gusty
winds the main concern.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  84  70  83 /  90  70  50  60
FSM   74  85  72  86 /  60  70  40  60
MLC   73  85  71  86 /  70  60  60  60
BVO   70  84  68  82 /  90  50  20  60
FYV   69  81  66  82 /  60  70  40  60
BYV   68  82  66  82 /  60  60  20  50
MKO   72  83  70  83 /  80  70  50  60
MIO   69  83  68  82 /  80  50  20  50
F10   71  84  70  83 /  80  70  60  60
HHW   74  90  73  89 /  60  60  50  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
500 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
500 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

...ACTIVE PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL LIKELY...
...INCREASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

TORNADO.
    RISK...Very Limited.
    AREA...West of Highway 75 in Northeast and East Central Oklahoma.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly Northeast and East Central Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA... Mainly Northeast and East Central Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly Northeast and East Central Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing late this afternoon across
portions of western and central Oklahoma, as well as southern
Kansas, will continue to move to the east and southeast into
parts of northeast and east central Oklahoma by early evening.
Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and heavy downpours will be
possible. A very limited potential for tornadoes will also exist.
These storms are expected to decrease during the mid to late
evening as they move into slightly more stable air.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop through the
evening and into the overnight in the vicinity of a cold front
across parts of Kansas. These thunderstorms will move to the
southeast toward northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas
after midnight. The heavy rain and flash flood potential will be
increased with these thunderstorms. The strongest storms may also
pose a risk of damaging winds, especially if an organized complex
develops.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Daily rounds of thunderstorms are expected from Friday into the
weekend. While the details remain difficult to pinpoint, many
areas will see 3 to 5 inches of rain between Thursday and
Saturday night, with local amounts possibly approaching 10 inches.
At this time it appears the greatest potential for the heaviest
rain will be focused across east central Oklahoma although the
axis of heavy rain will likely shift as this system evolves and
the situation becomes more clear. The rain is likely to be
widespread enough to cause rises on a number of area creeks and
streams, with some local flash flooding possible at locations
receiving the fastest rain rates.

The threat for additional locally heavy rainfall will likely
continue in some areas through mid week as the pattern remains
favorable. Flooding of main stem rivers will ultimately become a
concern should forecast rainfall amounts materialize.

There will also be at least limited severe weather potential with
any organized storm complexes, mainly in the form of damaging
wind gusts.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers should closely follow later forecasts as details
are refined and be prepared for at least some severe weather and
flooding potential from Thursday evening through the weekend.
Flash Flood Watches will likely be issued for parts of the
forecast area, perhaps as early as tonight.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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