Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
627 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorm areas during
the valid forecast period. MVFR to IFR conditions are expected
with scattered thunderstorms affecting area TAF sites into this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 329 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Storm chances this weekend and a return to more typical summer
time heat will be the main items of interest this morning.

A cluster of thunderstorms developed near the synoptic front over
the Ozarks during the overnight. Another storm cluster developed
on the high Plains near the tail end of said front. The storm
activity is moving generally to the south and east. More storm
development is expected later today along outflow boundaries left
behind by the storms over western AR/far eastern OK and by an MCV
that the latest hi-res guidance suggests will develop from the
high Plains storm cluster. With these two mechanisms in play, the
greatest storm coverage should be across SE OK and perhaps
portions of west central AR. A marginal pulse severe hail/wind
risk will exist with the storms. Storm development and coverage
will be a bit more uncertain on Sunday, but at least low chances
for storms will exist near the tail end of the old front/deep
layer moist axis.

After being a fixture over the western CONUS thru June and into
early July, the data continues to suggest that the ridge aloft
will slide east over the southern tier of states for this upcoming
work week. Day after day of hot and humid weather is in the
offing, with some potential for isolated storms in the terrain,
though coverage/uncertainty precludes adding mentionable PoPs at
this point.

Bottom line, a return to more typical July heat is expected, and
will last for many days.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  74  92  74 /  50  20  20  10
FSM   91  74  92  73 /  40  10  30  10
MLC   91  72  91  73 /  50  20  30  10
BVO   91  69  92  70 /  30  10  20  10
FYV   88  67  88  69 /  20  10  20  10
BYV   88  67  88  70 /  10  10  20  10
MKO   90  71  90  72 /  40  20  20  10
MIO   91  69  90  73 /  10  10  20  10
F10   90  71  91  72 /  50  20  20  10
HHW   91  72  91  73 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
455 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
455 AM CDT Sat Jul 8 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly south of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...Ongoing and again later this Afternoon.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas.
	ONSET...This Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
A thunderstorm complex will exit western Arkansas this morning with
another complex decaying across portions of central Oklahoma with a few
storms possibly straying into northeast Oklahoma before diminishing.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in
the vicinity of the outflow boundaries left over from the morning storms.
The storms this afternoon will have the potential to become strong to
severe with strong gusty winds and large hail the main concern. Locally
heavy rainfall will also be possible.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY through Friday...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The potential for thunderstorms will continue on Sunday especially
across southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas in the vicinity
of any outflow boundaries.

High pressure will prevail for the work week with a return of hot
temperatures. High temperatures each afternoon will be in the 90s across
much of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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