Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
309 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will ramp up later this afternoon and into
Tonight as an MCV currently across central Oklahoma moves into the
eastern portions of Oklahoma. With little to no cap in place across
the region, thunderstorms are expected to develop relatively easily
as the MCV moves into the region. Some the storms will likely become
severe with more than sufficient instability in place. strong gusty
winds will be the main concern with some large hail possible as well.
Locally heavy rain will also be problematic with more than an inch of rain
possible in a short period of time. These storms could last into the
early morning hours as they shift to the east and south across the
area. Additional thunderstorms will be possible late tonight and into
early Monday morning as a thunderstorm complex approaches from the west.
It is possible that some locations across southeast Oklahoma could see
upwards of 3 inches of rain tonight which could lead to flooding of low
lying areas.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Monday
with possibly another MCV moving across the region and in the vicinity
of any residual outflow boundaries lingering across the area. It is also
looking more likely that another MCS will roll out of Kansas and across
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night as a mid-level shortwave moves slowly across the Central and
Southern Plains. In fact, the chances of showers and thunderstorms will
remain in the forecast through Thursday as the mid-level shortwave eventually
shifts into the Ohio Valley.

A high pressure ridge aloft will build into eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas Friday and Saturday resulting in somewhat hotter temperatures on
Friday and possibly Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  88  73  89 /  60  40  40  50
FSM   73  87  73  90 /  60  40  30  40
MLC   73  88  74  90 /  60  40  30  40
BVO   70  87  71  88 /  60  40  60  50
FYV   69  82  70  85 /  60  40  30  50
BYV   69  84  69  85 /  60  40  30  50
MKO   71  86  73  88 /  60  40  40  40
MIO   70  86  70  87 /  60  40  60  50
F10   72  88  73  89 /  60  40  30  50
HHW   74  90  74  91 /  60  40  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
242 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
242 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...All eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 3 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...much of southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.
    ONSET...Late afternoon through tonight.

FLASH FLOOD.
    RISK...Limited.
    AREA...much of southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.
    ONSET...Late afternoon through tonight.

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern Oklahoma by mid
afternoon and increase in coverage through the late evening hours as
they progress eastward. Conditions will support a risk of severe
weather from mid afternoon through late evening with locally
damaging winds and pockets of severe hail being the primary hazards.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible across the entire region.
However, there are indications that storms could train across
portions of southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas this
evening and tonight, where an elevated risk of heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding is possible. As with all thunderstorms
there is a risk of lightning, and any outdoor activities should be
mindful of lightning safety.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY through THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms may be ongoing early Monday morning with additional
development possible during the afternoon and evening hours.  The
unsettled weather pattern will continue through mid week with daily
thunderstorm chances.  A few strong to severe storms are possible
during this same period with locally damaging winds the most likely
hazard. Late next week the pattern transitions to lower rain chances
and hot and humid weather prevailing over the region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
326 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

OKZ059-064-065-022130-
Pawnee OK-Okfuskee OK-Creek OK-
326 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CREEK...SOUTHWESTERN PAWNEE AND
OKFUSKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 325 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles south of Orlando to 2 miles southeast of
Perkins to 2 miles northwest of Davenport to 4 miles east of Johnson
to 6 miles north of Konawa. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bristow...                        Okemah...
Pawnee...                         Okfuskee...
Drumright...                      Boley...
Oilton...                         Depew...
Paden...                          Jennings...
Bearden...                        Slick...
Castle...                         Shamrock...
Maramec...                        Welty...
Milfay...                         Silver City...
Mason...

This includes the following highways,
 Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 212 and 225.
 Interstate 44 between mile markers 178 and 198.

Storms within this line may become severe at any time, with the most
likely hazards being quarter to half dollar size hail and wind gusts
to 60 mph. Be certain to monitor local radio stations and available
television stations for additional information and possible warnings
from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3650 9703 3613 9643 3581 9622 3529 9619
      3529 9644 3546 9644 3546 9647 3543 9650
      3545 9655 3544 9657 3539 9654 3540 9662
      3616 9662 3616 9682 3624 9682 3625 9692
      3633 9693 3634 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 268DEG 20KT 3611 9736 3594 9701 3574 9680 3540
9676 3504 9672

Lacy