Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
633 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered convection will pass across NE OK over the next few
hours before clearing. A few areas of MVFR ceilings are also
possible across the region through mid morning otherwise VFR
conditions are forecast. A low chance of storms impacting
NE OK and far NW AR terminals tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 414 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Latest radar loops early this morning continue to show persistent
storms moving in from northern/central OK. The storms are
expected to continue to weaken/dissipate through sunrise.

A muggy airmass remains in place across the area with dewpoints
staying in the 70s overnight. Despite the moderate instability
that will be in place across the region today, there is not a good
signal for large scale forcing for daytime storms across our
forecast area. Expect that most of this afternoon's storms
initially will develop north across eastern Kansas, along the
cold/Pacific front, or across the eastern TX panhandle southwest
along the dryline. If a storm does form this afternoon across
northern/central Oklahoma, it would have the potential to become
severe with wind gusts or hail the main concern. There is still
the potential for a complex of storms to affect mainly northeast
Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas late tonight.

There will remain low chances of storms on Thursday and Friday,
mainly for the potential of nocturnal MCSs. Meanwhile the
combination of heat and humidity will likely require heat
advisories on Thursday/Friday with heat indices expected to meet
or exceed 105 degrees.

A cold front is finally expected to move through the area Saturday
night/Sunday morning, which will knock the temperature back a few
degrees.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   91  75  96  75 /  20  20  20  30
FSM   93  75  96  75 /  10  10  30  20
MLC   90  75  94  75 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   91  71  95  71 /  20  20  20  30
FYV   87  70  90  70 /  10  20  30  30
BYV   88  71  89  70 /  10  30  30  30
MKO   89  73  94  74 /  10  10  20  20
MIO   90  73  94  73 /  20  30  20  30
F10   89  74  93  74 /  10  10  20  10
HHW   89  74  93  74 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
507 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
507 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Generally north of a line from Okmulgee Oklahoma
           to Fayetteville Arkansas.
	ONSET...Early morning...and again late afternoon into early
            Thursday morning.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms will continue across northeast
Oklahoma early this morning before dissipating.
The majority of the day will then remain dry...with
a low chance of thunderstorms moving back into
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas late
this afternoon into the early morning hours on
Thursday.  Organized severe weather is not likely
however sufficient instability will exist keeping
a low potential for isolated severe weather.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY through SATURDAY...Thunderstorm and Dangerous Heat Potential.
SUNDAY through TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Hot and humid conditions will prevail Thursday through Saturday
with afternoon heat index values from the mid 90s to around 105.
This will also allow conditions to become strongly unstable each
afternoon, and thunderstorm chances will exist each day.  There
is the potential for one ore more larger thunderstorm complexes to
move through the region and, should they develop, a severe weather
risk would exist.
A cold front is forecast to move through the region on Sunday
helping to cool temperatures nearer seasonal averages.  This
front will also be a focus for continued thunderstorm chances
into early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
806 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

OKZ054-059-141345-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
806 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND
SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 845 AM CDT...

At 805 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Cleveland,
moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Cleveland...                      Westport...
Osage...                          Walnut Creek State Park...

LAT...LON 3638 9657 3642 9619 3616 9620 3621 9656
TIME...MOT...LOC 1305Z 270DEG 16KT 3629 9648