Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
245 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
An active weather pattern will persist across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas into at least next weekend.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms ongoing early this morning
across parts of northeast Oklahoma will continue to move toward
the north and northeast, exiting the area by mid morning. A dry
day and night will follow, with the upper low in the Central
Plains pulling away from the region. Temperatures will continue to
be above normal, with gusty southerly winds developing by the
afternoon.

Much of Saturday will be similar to today (dry, warm, and breezy)
but shower and thunderstorm chances will increase late afternoon
and evening across areas along and north of Interstate 40 as a
front approaches and stalls across the area. Locally heavy rain
will be possible Saturday night and into Sunday across parts of
northeast Oklahoma. The front will remain a focus of shower and
thunderstorm development into Monday, with diminishing chances
Monday night and into Tuesday as the front finally begins to lift
northward.

While low shower and thunderstorm chances will exist through much
of next week, the next significant chance of rainfall will come
late in the week and into next weekend, as an upper low moves
through the Southern and Central Plains. Specific details remain
uncertain due to medium range model differences and poor run-to-
run continuity. Overall, this forecast is close to blended
guidance values for POPs and temperatures due to this
uncertainty.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  62  82  62 /  30   0  10  60
FSM   83  60  83  64 /  10   0  10  10
MLC   81  62  81  64 /  10   0   0  20
BVO   80  61  81  60 /  30   0  10  70
FYV   79  59  79  61 /  10   0  10  20
BYV   79  60  79  61 /  10   0  10  20
MKO   81  61  81  62 /  10   0  10  40
MIO   80  61  81  61 /  30   0  10  60
F10   81  61  81  62 /  10   0  10  50
HHW   80  60  79  62 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

LONG TERM....22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
441 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
441 PM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
 	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
 	ONSET...Ongoing...Second round possible later this evening.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
 	ONSET...Ongoing...Second round possible later this evening and
	overnight.

HEAVY RAIN. RISK...Limited.
 	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing...Continuing this evening and overnight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Tonight.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms currently ongoing across
portions of north-central and northeast Oklahoma this afternoon.
This activity is expected to remain below severe limits but could
still produce strong winds, small hail, and frequent
lightning...in addition to brief, heavy downpours. A second round
of showers and thunderstorms will move into the region this
evening and will move eastward through the night. Locally heavy
rainfall could lead to a some isolated flooding concerns tonight
as this system moves through. Greatest potential for heavy rain
looks to remain along and north of Interstate 44.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY through WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives by
Saturday night in conjunction with a weak upper system and
associated front near the region.  Shower and thunderstorm
chances will continue Sunday and into Monday as the front sags
into the area and remains in the vicinity during that time period.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
313 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

OKZ054-059-140845-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
313 AM CDT FRI APR 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL OSAGE AND
NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

At 313 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles northwest of
Pawnee, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Fairfax...
Ralston...

LAT...LON 3633 9682 3640 9695 3669 9683 3653 9655
TIME...MOT...LOC 0813Z 213DEG 17KT 3642 9686