Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
621 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Strong/severe storms have shifted just east of the KBVO...
KTUL...KRVS and KMLC TAF sites and will move into western AR
after 00-01Z. Brief IFR conditions...gusty winds and hail likely
with the stronger storms. Most of the activity will be shifting
east of the area after 05-06Z...with winds becoming gusty from
the west and northwest. Expect IFR cigs to move overspread most
of the area through the remainder of the night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 251 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Vigorous upper wave currently moving out of the Texas panhandle
will approach from the west this afternoon/evening with the threat
for severe weather. Surface low was located east of Fredrick with
a warm front extending into northeast Oklahoma. As surface low
tracks northeast, warm front is forecast to lift north to near
I-44 by mid/late afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will
likely develop near the frontal boundary across northeast Oklahoma
by late afternoon as cap continues to erode with strong surface
heating. Moderate instability, coupled with strong shear, will
initially support a large hail threat with storms transitioning
to a hail/damaging wind threat as convective line moves into
northwest Arkansas this evening. There is a limited tornado
threat with any supercells that develop near the warm front
across NE OK, however the main inhibiting factor remains the lack
of deeper low level moisture.

Main severe threat will end shortly after midnight as storms move
east of northwest Arkansas. Behind departing system, cold/breezy
conditions are expected into the day Wednesday with scattered
showers across NE OK/NW AR. Surface high settles over the region
Thursday night and with clear skies a freeze appears likely over
portions of Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas early Friday
morning.

Upper ridge begins to build back into the Southern Plains Friday
into the early part of the weekend with warmer conditions. Strong
upper jet streak will move out of the desert southwest during the
day Sunday with showers/thunderstorm chances increasing along
approaching Pacific front Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  63  42  66 /  80  30  10   0
FSM   54  63  42  67 /  80  40  10   0
MLC   52  66  41  69 /  70  20  10   0
BVO   45  63  36  68 /  80  30  10   0
FYV   48  56  36  61 /  80  50  10   0
BYV   50  56  41  60 /  80  50  10   0
MKO   50  62  40  67 /  80  30  10   0
MIO   48  60  39  62 /  80  50  10   0
F10   50  64  41  68 /  60  20  10   0
HHW   52  66  41  70 /  80  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
636 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
636 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

...Severe Storms This Evening...Large Hailand Damaging Winds Primary
   Threats...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Early Evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Eastern Oklahoma...east of Highway 69.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast OKlahoma.
	ONSET...After Midnight.

DISCUSSION... Severe weather will continue into the evening and
spread east as a low pressure center and attendant dryline and cold
front move across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Most of
the storm coverage...and severe potential will be focused along the
dryline and cold front currently located across far eastern
Oklahoma. These storms will spread into western Arkansas later this
this evening and will carry mostly a large hail and straight line
wind threat. Limited tornadic potential will exist with isolated
supercells early this evening...mainly across northeast Oklahoma.
The severe weather potential will end around midnight.

Also...locally heavy rainfall is possible north of Interstate 40
this evening into tonight. A strong cold front will follow the
storms system with strong northerly winds spreading into the region
tonight behind the boundary.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY and FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Gusty winds and much cooler temperatures will prevail on
Wednesday. Temperatures will warm by the weekend with gusty
southerly winds returning on Saturday. Thunderstorm chances return
by early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

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