Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1202 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push east northeast
across far Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas over the next
couple of hours. At the same time...additional showers and
thunderstorms will continue to push slowly eastward across far
Northeast Oklahoma and into Northwest Arkansas as an upper low
moves through the region. On the backside of the upper
low...IFR/MVFR ceilings are forecast to spread across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas and could remain common into the
afternoon hours Monday. Precip looks to exit Northwest Arkansas
mid to late morning Monday. Toward the end of the TAF
period...ceilings look to lift back to VFR over parts of the
region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 911 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorms continue to roll across southeast
Oklahoma this evening as an upper level low spins across
south-central Kansas. The severe threat will persist into
the overnight hours across southeast Oklahoma into west-central
Arkansas as the low level jet strengthens. Severe thunderstorms
will also be possible over the next few hours near the Kansas/
Oklahoma closer to the upper level low and the surface cold front
moving into the area. Large hail and damaging winds will be
the main concern with the tornado threat diminishing over the next
couple of hours across southeast Oklahoma.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  68  45  75 /  70  10   0  10
FSM   58  70  50  75 /  80  20   0  10
MLC   59  72  47  77 /  20  10   0  10
BVO   50  67  39  73 /  80  10   0  10
FYV   55  66  39  69 /  80  40   0  10
BYV   56  65  43  65 /  80  50   0  10
MKO   56  69  45  76 /  60  10   0  10
MIO   53  66  42  70 /  80  40   0  10
F10   56  70  46  76 /  20  10   0  10
HHW   61  73  50  76 /  70  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
457 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
457 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This evening and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Generally west of a line from Bartlesville to Poteau.
	ONSET...After 7pm.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...All of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 6 pm.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Generally west of a line of
    Bartlesville to Poteau.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 10 pm.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing late this afternoon across
eastern Oklahoma and will pose only a limited risk of severe
weather.  Further west across south central Oklahoma severe
storms have developed and these storms will intensify and
increase in coverage as they approach southeast Oklahoma
later this evening.  Wind profiles will also strengthen after
sunset and any ongoing storms will experience an increase
in tornadic potential.  Locations south of Interstate 40 should
anticipate severe weather warnings and be ready to take cover
as needed.
Further north scattered severe storms are expected to develop
across northern Oklahoma and spread into northeast Oklahoma
later this evening.  A limited tornadic potential remains across
this area with an increase in damaging wind and large hail
potential increasing likely during the mid to late evening hours.
All storms will generally trend weaker as they continue into
western Arkansas, however the severe weather potential will not
subside until early Monday morning when the storm system pushes
east of the region.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected especially
along and south of Interstate 40.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY through SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will be ongoing Monday morning but will quickly
move further east with dry weather prevailing through much of
the day Tuesday.  Thunderstorms will become widespread
Tuesday night through Wednesday with a risk of locally heavy
rainfall and severe weather.
The unsettled weather pattern will remain into next weekend
with continued thunderstorm chances with each passing
storm system.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1030 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

OKZ054-055-059-270415-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Washington OK-
1030 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN OSAGE...NORTHERN
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1030 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles south of Chautauqua to 9 miles southwest of
Pawhuska to 3 miles east of Red Rock. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Pawhuska...
Pawnee...                         Fairfax...
Barnsdall...                      Copan...
Wynona...                         Ralston...
Blackburn...                      Skedee...
Bigheart...                       Hulah...
Osage Hills State Park...         Okesa...
Wah Sha She State Park...         Tallant...
Pershing...                       Nelagoney...

LAT...LON 3700 9579 3649 9620 3626 9692 3633 9693
      3634 9703 3648 9703 3660 9660 3700 9621
TIME...MOT...LOC 0330Z 260DEG 25KT 3698 9616 3660 9649 3645 9711

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1249 AM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

OKZ054>058-060>063-270615-
Tulsa OK-Craig OK-Osage OK-Rogers OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-Nowata OK-
Washington OK-Mayes OK-
1249 AM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CRAIG...NORTHERN ROGERS...
NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE...EAST CENTRAL OSAGE...OTTAWA...NORTHERN
MAYES...WASHINGTON...NOWATA AND NORTHEASTERN TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 115
AM CDT...

At 1248 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles northeast of Welch to 2 miles west of Chelsea.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bartlesville...                   Claremore...
Miami...                          Vinita...
Nowata...                         Pryor Creek...
Skiatook...                       Grove...
Collinsville...                   Dewey...
Commerce...                       Chelsea...
Oologah...                        Fairland...
Afton...                          Quapaw...
Langley...                        Adair...
Welch...                          Bernice...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 253 and 324.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3690 9462 3631 9498 3634 9616 3682 9596
      3700 9505 3700 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0548Z 257DEG 34KT 3694 9500 3655 9548