Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
924 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Cold front now extends near Fort Smith west to Webbers
Falls/Eufaula per latest mesonet obs. Area radar data showed
several fine lines consolidating with a secondary surge marking
the true colder airmass, which moved through Tulsa between 4-5pm.
Temperatures this evening range from the mid 50s in far northeast
Oklahoma to 79 at Fort Smith.

Active convection is ongoing across southern Missouri/northern
Arkansas in area of post-frontal elevated instability. Latest
HRRR/RAP guidance suggests this area will remain agitated
overnight and this is supported by current radar trends. The 00z
sounding from SGF sampled nearly 1000 j/kg of elevated CAPE
and this appears to be the region where the 850mb front is
located. Highest chance POPs will be maintained across far
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas for the overnight.
Updated zones will be sent shortly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   49  60  51  76 /  20  30  30  10
FSM   56  59  48  77 /  30  30  20  10
MLC   56  66  55  80 /  20  30  10  10
BVO   46  57  47  80 /  20  30  30  10
FYV   48  54  45  72 /  30  30  30  10
BYV   44  51  41  72 /  30  30  30  10
MKO   54  61  50  76 /  20  30  30  10
MIO   45  54  48  77 /  20  30  30  10
F10   53  63  53  76 /  20  30  20  10
HHW   60  68  54  82 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....30

CORFIDI

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
521 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
521 PM CDT Tue Mar 21 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Northwest Arkansas and East Central Oklahoma.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Elevated.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Late this afternoon, a cold front extended from northwest Arkansas
through east central Oklahoma, south of Tulsa. North of the
boundary, winds were from the northeast and gusting to between 20
to 25 miles per hour. These winds will subside by late this
evening, but the strong flow will increase the fire danger north
of the front. The front will slowly shift south across the
area tonight...and the wind shift will pose a threat for those
involved with ongoing wildfire suppression efforts.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly south of the front this
evening. The airmass south of the boundary remains moderately
unstable, but convergence has been too weak so far to support
widespread storm development. The chance for storms will lessen by
late evening. The main hazard from isolated storms tonight will
be lightning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local spotter activation is not expected tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...High Wind Potential...Fire Weather Potential.
FRIDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY through Monday...Thunderstorm Potential...Fire Weather Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Isolated thunderstorm chances will persist through Wednesday night
as the passing front moves back north as a warm front.

A strong upper level storm system will arrive by Friday with a
widespread chance for showers and storms. Severe thunderstorms
appear possible with damaging winds likely to be the main threat.
A few areas may receive locally heavy rainfall as well. The
potential for large hail may increase Friday night as the upper
low passes.

The pattern looks active through the extended period with chances
for storms each day of the weekend.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

CORFIDI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1042 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

ARZ001-002-011-220415-
Carroll AR-Madison AR-Benton AR-
1042 PM CDT TUE MAR 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL BENTON...NORTH
CENTRAL MADISON AND WEST CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM
CDT...

At 1042 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles north of
War Eagle, moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Eureka Springs...                 Clifty...
Hobbs State Park...               Larue...
Beaver Lake...                    Bland...
Lookout...

LAT...LON 3630 9400 3640 9397 3642 9370 3619 9377
TIME...MOT...LOC 0342Z 278DEG 16KT 3633 9394

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