Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Tulsa, OK

April 16, 2017Delaware County, Ottawa County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 16, 2017, 10:25 PM CDT for Delaware County, Ottawa County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 35 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 16, 2017, 10:25 PM CDT (03:25 UTC)
Expired: Apr 16, 2017, 11:00 PM CDT
In force: 35 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Delaware County, OK, Ottawa County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 3.4 hours before the alert went out and 83 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 214 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -39 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1094 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 38 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 60 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

841 
WUUS54 KTSA 170325
SVRTSA
OKC041-115-170400-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0091.170417T0325Z-170417T0400Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1025 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northeastern Delaware County in northeastern Oklahoma...
  Southeastern Ottawa County in northeastern Oklahoma...

* Until 1100 PM CDT

* At 1024 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles northeast
  of Grove, moving east at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

  IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
           damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
           wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

* Locations in or near the path include...
  Grove...                          

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3657 9462 3660 9475 3670 9475 3673 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0324Z 277DEG 13KT 3664 9469 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

1 follow-up statement

668 
WWUS54 KTSA 170350
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1050 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

OKC041-115-170400-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0091.000000T0000Z-170417T0400Z/
Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-
1050 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1100 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire. However heavy rain 
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3657 9462 3660 9475 3670 9475 3673 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0350Z 277DEG 13KT 3663 9458 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 16, 9:51 PM CDT, 34 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 16, 9:51 PM CDT, 34 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
951 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Have issued updates earlier this evening to account for higher
rain chances this evneing over northern tier of OK counites and to
raise QPF forecast. Training of cells continues across Osage Co
where radar estimates 1-3 inches, with 1.82 measured in 3 hours at
Foraker Mesonet. Overall trend has been a slow southeast shift in
the line of storms, in line with last several hourly runs of HRRR.
Heavy rain threat should gradually shift into parts of northwest
AR over next few hours as well as continuing across northeast OK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 654 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Showers/thunderstorms will continue to develop this evening across
northeast Oklahoma with IFR conditions likely in the stronger storms.
Thunderstorm activity should begin to spread southeast tonight although
specific timing for any one location remains problematic. Ceiling
heights will generally fall overnight to IFR with patchy fog possible
early Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 329 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...

I hate to sound like a broken record here, but the forecast thru
the beginning of next weekend remains very challenging. Multiple
rounds of storms are expected, with round 1 expected tonight into
Monday. The next round comes with a front late Wednesday night and
Thursday. Finally, a strong upper storm system, with assistance
from the pre-existing front, will bring another round of storms
and heavy rainfall to the region to close out the week and head
into the weekend. The greatest potential for severe weather will
be with the Friday-Saturday storm system, but significant run to
run inconsistencies regarding important details such as surface
features and the track of the upper system itself suggest that
the what/when/where can't be answered right now.

The morning storm complex left an outflow boundary, which has now
become more of a differential heating boundary now from central to
northwest OK. The true synoptic front extends east-west across
central KS down to an area of low pressure over the northeast TX
panhandle. Current thinking is that storms will develop across
northwest or north central OK where these boundaries converge this
afternoon, and will eventually grow upscale into one or more
clusters or complexes that will track east or southeast across the
region tonight into Monday. The storms currently across south
central OK may be associated with an upper disturbance over TX,
but short term guidance suggests this activity will not affect our
area. There will be a limited severe wind and hail threat with the
storms. Deep layer shear is only marginal for organized severe
weather. Pockets of locally heavy rainfall are more likely given
moisture availability. Last night's complex did not bring
widespread heavy rains, which would suggest that chances for
significant flooding appear low with tonight's round.

Today's ECMWF run has shifted the surface front and low pressure
track farther south today for the Friday-Saturday system, likely
due to a shift in the track of the upper system. Details such as
this are crucial in determining the type and severity of the
storms that will affect our region. On the cool side of the front,
bands of locally heavy rains are possible. Still too early to make
any declarations.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  76  61  81 /  70  50  10  10
FSM   63  76  62  82 /  50  60  30  10
MLC   61  76  60  81 /  50  60  20  10
BVO   57  76  58  81 /  90  40  10  10
FYV   58  73  57  77 /  70  60  20  10
BYV   57  72  56  77 /  70  60  30  10
MKO   60  75  61  79 /  60  60  20  10
MIO   58  74  58  79 /  80  50  10  10
F10   60  76  61  80 /  60  60  20  10
HHW   62  75  61  79 /  40  60  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 16, 4:57 PM CDT, 5 hours 28 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
457 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
457 PM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 8 pm.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 8 pm.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 8 pm.

DISCUSSION...
Early morning thunderstorms stabilized the atmosphere sufficiently
to prevent any thunderstorm development so far this afternoon. A
boundary extends from a surface low in the TX panhandle through
northwest Oklahoma into southern Kansas. Thunderstorms are
expectedto develop along this boundary this evening, potentially
organizing into a complex, which will affecting northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas through the overnight hours. The
main threats would be damaging winds, hail, and heavy rains, with
highest probability for severe storms remaining near the Kansas
border.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will continue Monday as a cold front pushes
slowly south through the area. A more significant storm system
will affect the area late in the week with thunderstorm chances
increasing by late Wednesday night. The best chance for severe
storms looks to be Friday as the main upper level storm moves into
the southern Plains.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 16, 5:23 PM CDT, 5 hours 2 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
523 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

OKZ060-061-162300-
Tulsa OK-Rogers OK-
523 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL ROGERS AND EAST
CENTRAL TULSA COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 523 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over northeastern
Tulsa, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Northeastern Tulsa...             Owasso...
Catoosa...                        Verdigris...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 227 and 234, and
between mile markers 241 and 243.

LAT...LON 3610 9588 3618 9599 3636 9579 3624 9565
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 229DEG 21KT 3618 9588

Special weather statement, Apr 16, 6:24 PM CDT, 4 hours 1 minute before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

OKZ054-170015-
Osage OK-
624 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM CDT...

At 624 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles west of Elgin to 4 miles west of Shidler.
Movement was east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Shidler...                        Elgin...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Pearsonia...                      Eastern Kaw Lake...
Webb City...

LAT...LON 3700 9600 3674 9651 3676 9682 3677 9682
      3677 9679 3678 9679 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 267DEG 19KT 3697 9640 3680 9673

Local storm report, Apr 16, 8:05 PM CDT, 2 hours 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
805 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     HAIL             3 W OSAGE HILLS STATE P 36.74N 96.24W
04/16/2017  E1.25 INCH       OSAGE              OK   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA.

&&

JDS

Special weather statement, Apr 16, 9:00 PM CDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
900 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

OKZ057-058-063-170230-
Craig OK-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-
900 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CRAIG...NORTHWESTERN
DELAWARE AND SOUTHWESTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 900 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Afton, moving
east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fairland...                       Afton...
Bernice...                        Bluejacket...
Narcissa...                       Bernice State Park...
Pyramid Corners...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 287 and 304.

LAT...LON 3669 9524 3685 9510 3679 9475 3659 9485
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 287DEG 20KT 3673 9499

Special weather statement, Apr 16, 10:12 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1012 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

OKZ061-062-170345-
Rogers OK-Mayes OK-
1012 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ROGERS AND NORTHWESTERN
MAYES COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

At 1012 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Oologah to Chelsea. Movement was south at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Claremore...                      Catoosa...
Verdigris...                      Chelsea...
Oologah...                        Adair...
Foyil...                          Bushyhead...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 241 and 271.

LAT...LON 3652 9533 3651 9533 3651 9532 3646 9523
      3619 9574 3648 9574 3659 9545
TIME...MOT...LOC 0312Z 349DEG 17KT 3642 9573 3654 9545

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 16, 7:07 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Osage	113 min
Apr 16, 7:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage	62 min
Apr 16, 8:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Washington	44 min
Apr 16, 8:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Ottawa	46 min
Apr 16, 8:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Nowata, Osage, Rogers, Washington	65 min
Apr 16, 8:44 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Osage	3 hr
Apr 16, 8:47 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Washington	3 hr
Apr 16, 9:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig	30 min
Apr 16, 9:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Nowata, Rogers	53 min
Apr 16, 9:28 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Nowata	3 hr
Apr 16, 9:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Delaware, Ottawa	59 min
Apr 16, 9:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Delaware, Ottawa	35 min
Apr 16, 10:02 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Craig, Delaware, Ottawa	3 hr
Apr 16, 10:12 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Rogers	33 min
Apr 16, 10:37 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Mayes	38 min
Apr 16, 10:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Delaware, Mayes, Ottawa	34 min
Apr 17, 1:12 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Creek, Okmulgee, Tulsa	3 hr
Apr 17, 4:52 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Osage	3 hr
Apr 17, 8:43 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Pawnee	2 hr
Apr 17, 8:53 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Osage, Tulsa	40 hr
Apr 17, 10:46 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Osage	15 hr
Apr 17, 11:41 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	TSA	Osage	9 hr
Apr 17, 2:13 PM CDT	River Flood Advisory	TSA	Tulsa	49 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2017 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.