Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Tulsa, OK

909 
WWUS54 KTSA 290402
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1102 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

OKC113-117-290415-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0052.000000T0000Z-170329T0415Z/
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
1102 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES...

At 1102 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles southeast of Ponca City to 8 miles northwest
of Ralston to 3 miles northwest of Skedee to 2 miles northeast of
Quay, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Fairfax...
Ralston...                        Hallett...
Blackburn...                      Maramec...
Skedee...                         

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3660 9693 3659 9699 3654 9698 3653 9696
      3656 9689 3660 9691 3661 9677 3646 9650
      3626 9651 3616 9662 3616 9682 3624 9682
      3630 9687 3637 9689 3650 9699 3657 9699
      3659 9703 3659 9705
TIME...MOT...LOC 0402Z 208DEG 43KT 3668 9705 3656 9688 3640 9677 3618
9668

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
928 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Elevated convection has increased mainly to the northwest of Tulsa
metro over the past hour in warm advection regime ahead of main
storm system. Line of strong to severe storms currently passing
through OKC area has produced a few gusts over 60 mph and will
continue moving to the northeast. Most recent meso analysis shows
environment for severe weather becomes less favorable to the
north and east and given elevated nature of instability expect
only a limited threat of wind gusts as these storms eventually
move into northeast OK. Additional linear storm complex moving
across northwest TX shown by hi res models to make a run toward
eastern OK late tonight may encounter a slightly more unstable
environment across southeast OK, again with instability mainly
elevated in nature. This may offer a slightly higher threat of
severe weather overnight. Have made some minor changes to POP
forecast fore this evening, and also lowered conditional severe
probs a bit. Updated products will be out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 633 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Current VFR conditions will detiorate overnight as showers and
thunderstorms expand from west to east. Ceilings are likely to
lower area wide overnight with convection impacting all eastern OK
sites before sunrise. The stronger storms will focus nearer
western AR during the day Wed with flight conditions improving
from west to east later in the day.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 401 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper system centered over New Mexico will lift east northeast
tonight and Wednesday resulting in widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Surface based instability will remain very limited
tonight as the true warm front remains to the south, and this will
limit the damaging wind potential with the line or lines of
storms that will move into our area overnight. The linear nature
of the storms are also likely to limit the hail potential, so the
overall severe risk in our area does not appear to be that great
overnight. Locally heavy rainfall will be the greatest threat,
especially across the western part of our forecast area.

The severe weather threat Wednesday will depend a great deal on
the future evolution of the overnight convection. If the
atmosphere can recover sufficiently, a better severe risk may
exist Wednesday afternoon, especially across the eastern part of
our forecast area.

Thursday looks like a raw day, with some wraparound precipitation,
especially across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. A quick warmup will take place Friday and Saturday ahead
of the next upper system that will result in increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances during the latter half of the weekend into
the first of next week. As of now, it appears the track of this
system will be south of the current one, so the severe risk should
remain quite limited in our area.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  74  47  57 /  80  80  40  60
FSM   59  74  52  62 /  30  70  40  50
MLC   62  75  47  59 /  70  80  30  30
BVO   58  72  46  57 /  90  80  40  60
FYV   56  71  49  59 /  30  80  40  60
BYV   54  71  50  61 /  40  80  60  60
MKO   61  73  48  58 /  60  80  40  40
MIO   57  71  48  59 /  60  80  50  60
F10   61  75  46  57 /  80  70  40  30
HHW   63  75  50  63 /  60  80  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
946 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
946 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
    AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Along and west of a Bartlesville to McAlester line.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Along and west of a Bartlesville to McAlester line.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms over central Oklahoma
will move northeast through midnight into parts of northeast
Oklahoma, mainly affecting areas northwest of Interstate 44. These
storms will likely become increasingly elevated with time,
however there will be a limited threat of wind gusts to 60 mph
along with heavy rainfall. Additional storms across northwest
Texas will move into eastern Oklahoma late tonight, and these
storms will also pose a limited risk for damaging winds.

In addition, heavy rain is forecast for portions of eastern
Oklahoma with 1 to 2 inches of rain possible. This could cause
some locally heavy runoff or brief flash flooding.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY through FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY through SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The severe threat on Wednesday will depend on how storms evolve
through tonight. There will likely be an axis of instability that
develops across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas ahead
of a cold front, and storms are expected to develop by afternoon.
Some of these storms could become severe with threats of large
hail and damaging winds with a limited threat for tornadoes.

A chance for thunderstorms returns for the weekend as yet another
storm system moves toward the region.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.