Severe Thunderstorm Warning 446, NWS Tulsa, OK

397 
WWUS54 KTSA 172018
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
318 PM CDT SUN SEP 17 2017

OKC107-172100-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0446.000000T0000Z-170917T2100Z/
Okfuskee OK-
318 PM CDT SUN SEP 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTY...

At 318 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles southwest of Boley to 4 miles east of
Seminole, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations in or near the path include...
Okemah...                         Boley...
Paden...                          Bearden...
Castle...                         

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 212 and
220.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 9662 3554 9627 3529 9631 3529 9644
      3546 9644 3546 9647 3543 9650 3543 9652
      3546 9654 3544 9657 3543 9656 3542 9656
      3541 9654 3539 9654 3541 9658 3540 9660
      3540 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 288DEG 19KT 3547 9653 3522 9660 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

655 
WWUS54 KTSA 172046
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
346 PM CDT SUN SEP 17 2017

OKC107-172100-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0446.000000T0000Z-170917T2100Z/
Okfuskee OK-
346 PM CDT SUN SEP 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OKFUSKEE COUNTY...

At 346 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles southeast of Castle to 4 miles west of
Wetumka, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations in or near the path include...
Okemah...                         Bearden...
Castle...                         

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 212 and
220.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3551 9640 3551 9627 3529 9631 3529 9644
      3546 9644 3548 9643
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 265DEG 32KT 3545 9636 3523 9632 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

618 
WWUS54 KTSA 172053
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
353 PM CDT SUN SEP 17 2017

OKC107-172103-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0446.000000T0000Z-170917T2100Z/
Okfuskee OK-
353 PM CDT SUN SEP 17 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OKFUSKEE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty 
winds to 40 mph are still possible with these thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 3551 9640 3551 9627 3529 9631 3529 9644
      3546 9644 3548 9643
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 279DEG 19KT 3544 9632 3522 9628 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1217 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Plume of moisture along with frontal boundary will remain focus
for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon,
mainly across northeast OK and northwest AR. VFR will remain
prevailing flight category, however MVFR conditions will occur
within any thunderstorm cores passing over terminal sites.
Additional cluster of storms may impact eastern OK sites late
tonight into early Saturday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1015 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Enhanced area of convection continues across far northeast OK this
morning, with additional less organized clusters within
subtropical moisture plume extending through large portion of the
southern plains and midwest. Embedded shortwave energy within
moisture plume along with Synoptic frontal boundary moving into
parts of northeast OK this afternoon will provide additional
opportunities for showers and storms through the day, with highest
chances more or less from I-40 north. At the moment only small
chances have been made to the going forecast, based on current
radar trends with additional updates possible later.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 629 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Storms have been developing across southeast Kansas ahead of a
cold front. Will allow a short period of VCTS at KBVO this
morning. Otherwise, best chance for storms will be this afternoon
for northeast Oklahoma. VFR conditions expected for the AR sites
and KMLC with thunder chances too low to mention. Models are
hinting at a weakening MCS late in the period which may affect
northeast Oklahoma after 18/06z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 301 AM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The main forecast challenge will be rain/storm chances today thru
Tuesday. A secondary challenge will be rain/storm chances late
next week.

Southwest flow continues over the region to the south of a strong
shortwave trough ejecting northeast over the northern Plains. A
plume of mid and high level subtropical moisture can be seen on WV
imagery emanating from Norma in the Pacific up into our region.
Disturbances within this stream have been hard to pinpoint, but
have initiated storms that have affected areas primarily north and
west of Tulsa thus far. Another such disturbance is beginning to
initiate isolated storms west of Tulsa early this morning, with
the potential tracking mainly north of I-44. Another focus for
storms this afternoon will be the synoptic cold front, which
continues southeast across central Kansas this morning. The
boundary will probably stall in the vicinity of the OK/KS border
region later today. The latest runs of the HRRRX, which has done
well lately, suggest scattered storms will develop during the
afternoon across NE OK and then track toward NW AR while generally
weakening this evening. The greatest severe potential will be this
afternoon, with damaging winds the primary threat. Some hail is
possible as well.

The hi-res ARW and HRRRX have also been consistent in suggesting
that convection on the High Plains this afternoon will organize
into an MCS tonight generally tracking northeast mainly along and
north of I-44. Storms should generally be weakening by the time
they make it this far east, thus severe potential looks low at
this point.

Storm chances generally lift north and east of the region on
Monday as the boundary retreats, though will maintain low PoPs
near the KS border with ECMWF showing an approaching wave in the
subtropical jet. This disturbance will move across the region
Tuesday, warranting at least a mention of daytime storms.

A large and amplified upper trough will evolve over the western
CONUS next week, as strong upper jet energy punches into the
nation from the Pacific. The first piece of energy will eject into
the Plains well north of our region midweek, with warm mid level
temps spreading over the region. Will maintain a dry forecast from
Tuesday night thru Thursday with the upper trough staying well to
the west. The 00Z ECMWF has trended slower with the eastward
progression of the trough and surface front. Will maintain only
low PoPs thru next weekend.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  70  90  71 /  50  30  30  20
FSM   91  69  91  70 /  20   0  10  10
MLC   90  69  91  72 /  20  10   0  10
BVO   84  69  87  68 /  50  40  40  20
FYV   85  67  87  67 /  30  10  10  10
BYV   85  67  87  68 /  30  20  20  20
MKO   89  68  89  70 /  30  20  10  10
MIO   83  68  85  67 /  60  40  30  20
F10   89  70  90  71 /  30  20  10  10
HHW   92  69  91  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and extreme northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and extreme northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A plume of deep subtropical moisture remains in place from
southwest Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas this afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop within the moist
axis today, with a few strong to severe storms possible through
the afternoon. The main hazards will be from strong or damaging
wind gusts and brief heavy downpours. A storm complex may develop
to the west this evening and impact parts of eastern Oklahoma late
tonight, however these storms will likely be weakening as they
approach the area.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY through THURSDAY...No Hazards.
FRIDAY through SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
By Monday, the front will lift back north across Kansas, with a
low chance for storms early in the day across northeast Oklahoma.
Southwest flow aloft will support an unsettled weather pattern
for much of the week, but the highest chance for any rain and
storms will be Monday and Tuesday. By mid week, a building mid
level ridge will likely strengthen the cap, limiting thunderstorm
development on Wednesday and Thursday. Storm chances will return
by the end of the week as an upper level low in the western states
moves a bit closer to the area.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
138 PM CDT SUN SEP 17 2017

ARZ010-171915-
Washington AR-
138 PM CDT SUN SEP 17 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM CDT...

At 137 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Farmington,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville...                   Farmington...
Prairie Grove...                  Elkins...
West Fork...                      Greenland...
Brentwood...                      Johnson...
Black Oak...                      Walnut Grove...
Prairie Grove Battlefield State...
Tuttle...
Sulphur City...                   Woolsey...
Hicks...                          Wheeler...
Viney Grove...                    Hogeye...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 48 and 68.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3599 9436 3615 9425 3605 9395 3581 9412
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 301DEG 15KT 3604 9423

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
241 PM CDT SUN SEP 17 2017

OKZ065-066-172030-
Okmulgee OK-Okfuskee OK-
241 PM CDT SUN SEP 17 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OKMULGEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 241 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles west of
Henryetta, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Okmulgee...                       Henryetta...
Dewar...                          Schulter...
Grayson...                        Hoffman...
Clearview...                      Pharoah...
Bryant...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 225 and
243.

LAT...LON 3562 9591 3548 9582 3546 9582 3546 9587
      3543 9588 3534 9618 3548 9625
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 242DEG 21KT 3545 9605