Severe Thunderstorm Warning 347, NWS Tulsa, OK

152 
WWUS54 KTSA 171119
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
619 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

OKC115-171129-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0347.000000T0000Z-170617T1130Z/
Ottawa OK-
619 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3671 9462 3700 9476 3700 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1119Z 333DEG 29KT 3685 9458 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
257 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Keeping a close eye on severe MCS currently dropping southeast
across eastern KS/western MO. HRRR has struggled with the
evolution of this system through most of the night...although the
latest iteration appears to have a reasonable handle. Will likely
see this activity move into parts of northwest AR (and perhaps far
northeastern OK) toward daybreak although in a more weakened
state...but we could still see some gusty winds. Will make some
last minute tweaks to first period PoPs prior to forecast
issuance.

The next order of business will be the widespread excessive heat
for this afternoon. Expect a rather large area of mid 70s dewpoint
pooling across parts of eastern OK...and with highs expected to
top out in the mid/upper 90s will upgrade advisory to an excessive
heat warning for much of northeast OK.

A cold front will advance into southeast KS by late
afternoon/early evening...with additional shower/thunderstorm
development expected along the boundary. This activity should move
into northern sections of the forecast area later Saturday night
as the cold front sags farther south. The front will slow a bit
across southeast OK/western AR in Sunday...and provide the focus
for additional afternoon convection. Strong forecast instability
will support a few severe storms...with large hail/damaging winds
being the main threat. The cold front...along with associated
cloud cover/precipitation will hold afternoon temps down
considerably with highs mainly in the 80s.

The cooler/drier conditions will continue into Monday/Monday
night...with a return to more hot/humid conditions returning by
Tuesday and continuing through the remainder of the week. The
forecast area will remain along the southern edge of the
westerlies...so some nocturnal convection is not out of the
question mainly for the northern areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  72  83  63 /   0  40  40  10
FSM   98  76  87  65 /  20  20  50  20
MLC   95  74  85  64 /   0  10  30  20
BVO   97  70  82  59 /   0  50  20  10
FYV   92  71  80  58 /  20  40  40  10
BYV   92  70  79  59 /  30  60  40  10
MKO   95  73  83  61 /   0  20  40  10
MIO   95  70  83  60 /  20  60  40  10
F10   96  73  83  62 /   0  20  20  10
HHW   95  76  89  66 /   0   0  50  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ049-053-058-062-063-067-068-070>076.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ054>057-059>061-064>066.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
500 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
500 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

...DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED TODAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Evening.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET... .

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET... .

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late Morning.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Northwest of a Vinita to Okemah Line.

DISCUSSION...
Hot and humid conditions are expected again today, with Heat index
values in excess of 105 degrees over a large portion of eastern
Oklahoma and west central Arkansas. Parts of northeast Oklahoma
will likely see heat indices over 110 degrees.

A weakening complex of thunderstorms will move into parts of
northwest Arkansas early this morning, with a very limited threat
of gusty winds through mid morning. A cold front will move into
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas by late this evening,
bringing a good chance of showers and thunderstorms. A few storms
could be severe with damaging winds and large hail, along with
locally heavy rainfall.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY through FRIDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
The cold front will slowly move through the area Sunday, with the
threat of showers and thunderstorms and a limited threat of
severe weather shifting south during the day. After a brief cool
down to start next week, hot weather will return mid to late week.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
515 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-171115-
Carroll AR-Madison AR-Benton AR-Washington AR-
515 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BENTON...NORTHERN MADISON...
CARROLL AND NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM CDT...

At 514 AM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 2 miles south of Webb City to 3 miles southeast of
Cassville to 6 miles southeast of Forsyth. Movement was south at 40
mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Springdale...                     Rogers...
Bentonville...                    Berryville...
Eureka Springs...                 Bella Vista...
Lowell...                         Pea Ridge...
Green Forest...                   Bethel Heights...
Gravette...                       Cave Springs...
Highfill...                       Garfield...
Gateway...                        Beaver...
Hindsville...                     Carrollton...
Rudd...                           Forum...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 75 and 84, and
between mile markers 86 and 93.

LAT...LON 3612 9404 3648 9461 3650 9461 3650 9330
      3612 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 1014Z 343DEG 35KT 3711 9449 3665 9382 3664 9302