Severe Thunderstorm Warning 307, NWS Tulsa, OK

791 
WWUS54 KTSA 280226
SVSTSA

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
926 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

ARC007-280236-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0307.000000T0000Z-170528T0245Z/
Benton AR-
926 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BENTON COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A tornado watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northwestern
Arkansas...and northeastern Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3639 9387 3639 9388 3638 9389 3637 9387
      3624 9388 3632 9459 3650 9462 3650 9387
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 276DEG 40KT 3642 9395 

$$

69

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
520 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The 00Z TAF discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
An extremely unstable airmass over the region ahead of a cold
front and dryline will set the stage for numerous severe
thunderstorms over the region this TAF period. The most likely
time window at each site was the time frame used in the Tempo
groups. VFR conditions will prevail outside of storms this
evening, with IFR potential if storms hit the airports. MVFR and
possibly even IFR cigs will overspread the region behind the
front, with a trend toward VFR on Sunday as cooler and drier air
in the low levels moves into the region.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 259 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Conditions are prime for significant severe weather later this
afternoon and overnight across eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Extreme instability is currently in place and effective
shear values are supportive of organized updrafts. These
conditions will support all modes of severe weather including
destructive winds, giant hail, and possibly a few strong
tornadoes.

The details on how the eventual convection evolves are less clear
however a likely scenario is of supercells initiating both along
the boundary from NE OK into far NW AR, and further south
along the dryline in south central OK. Currently expanding mid
cloud across central OK is likely a zone of enhanced lift yet to
overspread the region. The capping inversion has continued to
weaken and any further lift along with localized sfc convergence
is expected to spark storm development. Storms further south along
the dryline may be more delayed in development but nevertheless
will also pose significant severe weather potential. The severe
weather threat will continue into the overnight hours awaiting
the passing cold front to clear the area from northwest to
southeast.

The remainder of the forecast is expected to be rather tranquil as
dry weather prevails for early week with increasing thunderstorm
chances for mid to late week. Flow aloft is forecast to weaken
considerably as the westerlies lift well north thus reducing the
severe weather potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  81  58  87 /  60  10   0   0
FSM   71  83  60  87 /  70  10   0   0
MLC   67  80  57  86 /  70  10   0   0
BVO   62  81  53  87 /  40  10   0  10
FYV   64  77  51  82 /  70  10   0   0
BYV   66  78  54  82 /  70  10   0   0
MKO   66  79  57  86 /  70  10   0   0
MIO   64  80  54  84 /  60  10   0  10
F10   66  80  57  86 /  60  10   0   0
HHW   71  81  61  87 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ049-053-067>076.

AR...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
457 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-281030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
457 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TONIGHT WITH DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH A FEW STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
    ONSET...Late afternoon.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Along and north of Interstate 44 through early evening,
    then along and south of Interstate 44 tonight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Early evening.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Early evening.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Latest surface mesoanalysis shows boundary across far northeast
Oklahoma. OK mesonet observations and radar data suggest
convective towers are developing along a line from just north of
Vinita southwest toward central Osage County - near Pawhuska. We
are monitoring this area for first development this afternoon.

Elevated showers and storms are approaching from central Oklahoma
with a few lightning strikes noted. The cap has held strong to
this point but once the cap is breached, explosive storm
development is likely given extreme instability in place. All
modes of severe will be likely, including very large hail,
damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.

Eventually, storms will increase in coverage and likely
transition toward a damaging wind threat by mid to late evening as
they develop southeastward. Additionally, an axis of heavy
rainfall is likely from northwest Arkansas through eastern
Oklahoma. Recent heavy rainfall may allow for rapid onset flash
flooding in a few locations.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Regional Spotter Network has been activated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY through FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Storms will begin to shift southeast of the region Sunday morning
with dry conditions on Monday and Tuesday. Low thunderstorm
chances return mid to late week, with limited additional severe
weather potential.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
A Tornado Watch is in effect through midnight for all of eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Initiation of storms is expected
within the next hour or so. The holiday weekend will provide
numerous outdoor exposures which will further increase the
potential for a rapid safety response. Outdoor activities may need
to be cancelled this evening, especially if you are unable to
quickly move indoors to a substantial shelter.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

CORFIDI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
816 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     HAIL             3 S MILFAY              35.71N 96.57W
05/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       CREEK              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
820 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 PM     HAIL             KETCHUM                 36.52N 95.02W
05/27/2017  E1.25 INCH       CRAIG              OK   PUBLIC

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
822 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             BIG CABIN               36.54N 95.22W
05/27/2017  E1.25 INCH       CRAIG              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ALSO REPORTED 55 MPH WINDS.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
824 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             CHELSEA                 36.54N 95.43W
05/27/2017  E2.50 INCH       ROGERS             OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

AEJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
839 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

OKZ057-061-062-280230-
Craig OK-Rogers OK-Mayes OK-
839 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CRAIG...NORTHEASTERN
ROGERS AND NORTHERN MAYES COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 837 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles north of
Foyil, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Chelsea...                        Langley...
Adair...                          Ketchum...
Spavinaw...                       Foyil...
Disney...                         Big Cabin...
Pensacola...                      Hoot Owl...
Cherokee State Park...            Spavinaw State Park...
Strang...                         Bushyhead...

Those attending the rocklahoma event are in the path of this storm
and should prepare for IMMINENT DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS.

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 260 and 280.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A tornado watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3660 9501 3629 9500 3629 9501 3642 9570
      3660 9562 3660 9543 3661 9543
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 280DEG 35KT 3650 9552

69

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
842 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 PM     HAIL             1 NE WELTY              35.63N 96.39W
05/27/2017  E2.00 INCH       OKFUSKEE           OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER IS ON HIGHWAY 48 AT THE OKFUSKEE AND CREEK COUNTY
            LINE REPORTING HEAVY HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

&&

JDS