River Flood Warning 85, NWS Tulsa, OK

537 
WGUS84 KTSA 050748
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
248 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo affecting Tulsa County. 
  
OKC143-051548-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0085.171005T1236Z-171006T1545Z/
/OWSO2.2.ER.171005T1236Z.171006T0000Z.171006T0945Z.NO/
248 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo.
* from this morning to Friday morning, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  2:00 AM Thursday, the stage was 13.16 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo is expected to rise 
  above flood stage this morning and continue to rise to near 20.5 
  feet by this evening. The river is expected to fall below flood 
  stage early Friday morning.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet, widespread flooding occurs in Mohawk Park 
  with access roads flooded near the Oxley Nature Center. Mingo Road 
  near 66th Street may be flooded. 56th Street North near Mingo Road 
  becomes impassable.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9570 3618 9570 3618 9594 3627 9594

$$

430 
WGUS84 KTSA 051306
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
806 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Bird Creek near Sperry affecting Osage and Tulsa Counties. 
  
  Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo affecting Tulsa County. 
  
OKC113-143-052106-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0084.000000T0000Z-171006T0000Z/
/SPEO2.1.ER.171005T0723Z.171005T1030Z.171005T1800Z.NO/
806 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Sperry.
* until this evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:00 AM Thursday, the stage was 21.63 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Sperry will continue falling to 
  below flood stage by this afternoon.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet, minor agricultural flooding occurs.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3640 9593 3620 9590 3620 9598 3640 9605

$$

OKC143-052105-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0085.000000T0000Z-171006T0000Z/
/OWSO2.1.ER.171005T1800Z.171005T1800Z.171005T1800Z.NO/
806 AM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo.
* until this evening, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  7:00 AM Thursday, the stage was 15.03 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo is expected to rise to 
  near flood stage this afternoon.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, minor flooding occurs at Mohawk Park and
  along 56th Street North near Mingo Road.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9570 3618 9570 3618 9594 3627 9594

$$

973 
WGUS84 KTSA 051901
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
201 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo affecting Tulsa County. 
  
OKC143-051931-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0085.000000T0000Z-171006T0000Z/
/OWSO2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
201 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo.
* At  1:00 PM Thursday, the stage was 15.05 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo crested below flood 
  stage at 15.5 feet. The river will remain below flood stage.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9570 3618 9570 3618 9594 3627 9594

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
623 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Flight impacts continue across NE OK sites primarily with lower
ceilings as rain rates have been steadily decreasing over the past
hour. Lower ceilings are likely to be maintained into the early
morning hours across NE OK but will be lifting northward with time
and improving conditions into prevailing VFR levels are likely
before sunrise. Generally expected VFR conditions to prevail for
SE OK into NW AR though portions of far NW AR may see some patchy
fog but extent and duration is uncertain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 315 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017/

DISCUSSION...

It has been a wet day across NE OK into portions of NW AR.
Portions of Pawnee and Osage counties have picked up 4 to 8 inches
of rainfall, with some estimates by radar even higher. The
convection has been very efficient in producing rainfall, as you
would expect with PWATs running close to 2 inches, about 200% of
normal. Based on the 12Z upper air data, the deep layer moist axis
extended from deep south TX north into central/northeast OK. As
mentioned in yesterday's discussion, drier air continues to work
its way west across the southern tier of states, and this showed
up in the 12Z upper air obs/pwats and in the surface data as the
day has progressed. All of the available model data, including the
global and short term hi-res cam models, suggest that the current
activity will decrease in coverage by this evening, possibly due
to the drying of the column from the south and east. This trend
should continue into Thursday with the precip most likely shifting
farther north and west than where it is today.

After a relative lull in the action Thursday into Friday, a cold
front is expected to push into the region by late Friday night, in
response to the ejecting western CONUS closed low. There will be
good chances of showers and storms with the front, but instability
will be lacking in our area farther east along the front due to
the time of day. This activity will continue to sweep south and
east across the region going into Saturday.

Another stronger cold front is expected to push into the region on
Monday, as a deep trough of low pressure develops aloft over the
central CONUS. The coolest temps of this young fall season will
move into the region behind this front. High pressure will
dominate for much of next week, with tranquil and cooler weather
to prevail.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  80  67  84 /  50  20  10   0
FSM   66  86  64  88 /  30  10   0   0
MLC   67  83  65  86 /  30  10   0   0
BVO   67  78  64  84 /  50  30  20  10
FYV   65  81  63  83 /  60  10  10  10
BYV   64  82  62  84 /  50  10   0  10
MKO   66  82  64  85 /  50  10   0   0
MIO   67  78  65  84 /  60  30  20  10
F10   66  83  65  85 /  30  10   0   0
HHW   68  85  64  86 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
517 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
517 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This evening and Tonight.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
    RISK...Limited.
    AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
    ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
The main hazard this evening will be ongoing flash flooding across
portions of northeast Oklahoma, and moderate to heavy rain
continuing this evening. Latest mesoanalysis showed the main cold
front across southeast Kansas through northwest Oklahoma. Another
boundary was located across northeast Oklahoma, from near
Stillwater to Okmulgee to Fort Smith. The general trend will be
for diminishing rains by mid to late evening. Any additional rain
will cause flooding problems for those areas which have received
over 5 to 8 inches already. Minor river flooding will continue
through early Thursday. Most lightning will be along and north of
the Interstate 44 corridor through this evening.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY through MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
An active weather pattern will persist into the early part of next
week. Isolated thunderstorm potential should be confined to far
northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas Thursday, as a front
retreats northward. More settled conditions will continue through
most of Friday, with an increase in thunderstorm chances during
the evening in association with an approaching cold front. The
front will clear the area Saturday afternoon which will likely
keep the rest of the weekend dry.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

CORFIDI