River Flood Warning 46, NWS Tulsa, OK

355 
WGUS84 KTSA 302021
FLSTSA
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
321 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Flint Creek near Kansas affecting Cherokee and Delaware Counties. 
  
  Baron Fork River at Eldon affecting Cherokee County. 
  
OKC021-041-302051-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-170501T0300Z/
/KNSO2.1.ER.170430T1350Z.170430T1530Z.170430T1757Z.NO/
321 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Flint Creek near Kansas.
* At  2:30 PM Sunday, the stage was  9.75 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage this afternoon.
* Forecast...The Flint Creek near Kansas will continue falling and 
  remain below flood stage.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet, minor flooding occurs from Fidlers Bend to 
  Chewey Bridge. Permanent campgrounds and farmlands are affected. 
  Turbulence makes the river unsafe for floating.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3630 9461 3620 9456 3607 9482 3619 9483

$$

OKC021-302051-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-170501T0204Z/
/ELDO2.3.ER.170430T0650Z.170430T0930Z.170430T1514Z.NO/
321 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Baron Fork River at Eldon.
* At  2:30 PM Sunday, the stage was 13.60 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage late this morning.
* Forecast...The Baron Fork River at Eldon will continue falling and 
  remain below flood stage.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3594 9490 3594 9477 3578 9481 3578 9493

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1022 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
At mid morning...an upper level low located over Northwest
Oklahoma and Southwest Kansas continued to lift northeast into the
Central Plains. At the same time...an associated cold front had
swept through Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas...finally
pushing most of the rain/storms into Central Arkansas and
Southern Missouri. Behind the frontal boundary...cooler
temperatures with mostly cloudy and breezy southwesterly winds
were observed over the region.

Through this afternoon...the upper low is progged to lift into
Eastern Kansas. In response...some scattered light rain showers
could push back into the CWA as the upper low moves through the
region. The chances look to be mainly across Northeast Oklahoma
into Northwest Arkansas...with any additional QPF expected to be
light and exit the CWA by this evening. Have adjusted pops
slightly through this afternoon based on current trends and latest
short term model solutions.

Wind gusts should continue to increase across the region as the
upper low moves through the region this afternoon and remain
breezy into the overnight hours before the upper level trof axis
pushes off to the east. Gusts in the 30 to around 40 mph range
continue to look possible as gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range have
already been observed. Thus...will continue the wind advisory as
is. These winds along with mostly cloudy conditions should keep
temperatures from warming very much with highs in the 50s to low
60s possible this afternoon. Have made minor tweaks to temps/winds
to account for current trends. Otherwise...ongoing forecast seems
to be handling well at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  43  71  49 /  30  10   0   0
FSM   60  45  72  50 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   57  44  74  51 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   52  42  70  45 /  30  20   0   0
FYV   56  42  66  48 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   61  43  64  49 /  20  20  10   0
MKO   55  43  70  49 /  20  10   0   0
MIO   55  42  66  46 /  30  20   0   0
F10   55  43  72  50 /  20  10   0   0
HHW   61  45  75  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....18

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
500 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
500 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

...THE HEAVY RAINS HAVE ENDED, BUT DANGEROUS AREAL AND RIVER
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

AREAL/RIVER FLOOD.
 	RISK...Significant.
 	AREA...northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
 	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
 	ONSET...around midday.

DISCUSSION...

The heavy rains have ended over the region. However, widespread
heavy rainfall fell across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas this weekend. This heavy rainfall will continue to cause
dangerous river and areal flooding thru the weekend.

A strong low pressure system over the Plains will bring strong
wind gusts to near 40 mph later today. The winds are not expected
to subside until mid evening.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Another storm system will bring thunderstorm potential to the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday. Instability will be limited
across much of the region, and this will negate a severe weather
risk. However, a swath of locally heavy rain is expected to fall
across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, on areas already
hard hit by the weekend rains. Some additional flooding is
possible.

Another strong upper system will dive down over the lower to mid
Mississippi valley on Thursday. Cold temps aloft will support the
potential for afternoon thunderstorms over far eastern Oklahoma
into western Arkansas. Severe weather is not expected.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Lacy