Red Flag Warning 12, NWS Tulsa, OK

773 
WWUS84 KTSA 250006
RFWTSA

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
706 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

OKZ054-059-064-065-250115-
/O.EXP.KTSA.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-170325T0000Z/
Osage-Pawnee-Creek-Okfuskee-
706 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR VERY
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE WEST OF 
HIGHWAY 75...

Fire weather conditions have improved and are not expected for the
remainder of the evening.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1229 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Line of showers and t-storms extending from NE southward into OK
and TX will move eastward overnight. Cigs will gradually descend
through this period with MVFR expected by 13-15Z as the remnants
of this convective line move over the terminals. A few scattered
showers will be possible into the afternoon. By late afternoon
another round of t-storms is expected to develop along the line.
The OK terminals should be clear by that time, but western AR
terminals could see t-storms late in the afternoon/early evening.
Southerly winds will remain gusty through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 943 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Gusty southerly winds will continue overnight in advance of the
approaching storm system from the west. Scattered showers and
possibly weak thunderstorms will likely begin to develop across
parts of eastern Oklahoma towards sunrise, with this activity
slowly increasing through the morning hours Friday as it advances
east. The best chance for severe storms Friday will be across far
southeast and eastern Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas from about
midday through the afternoon hours, with damaging winds being the
main threat. A secondary severe hail threat will exist very late
Friday afternoon and evening across mainly northeast Oklahoma as
cold temperatures aloft spread into this area in association with
the center of the upper low. The current forecast has this
scenario well in hand, and no update is planned at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  51  66  46 /  40  30  20   0
FSM   72  53  67  46 /  90  40  20   0
MLC   77  52  69  47 /  80  10  10   0
BVO   78  50  65  41 /  30  40  20   0
FYV   68  51  61  43 /  90  60  40   0
BYV   69  51  60  44 /  90  70  40   0
MKO   72  53  66  46 /  80  30  20   0
MIO   71  51  60  43 /  80  50  40   0
F10   79  51  67  46 /  60  20  10   0
HHW   73  52  71  48 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
     OKZ054-059-064-065.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...06
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
521 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-241000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
521 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma...mainly west of Highway 75.
	ONSET...After 4 AM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Southerly winds will continue to gust to around 30 miles an hour
at times tonight. This will maintain a limited fire danger through
the overnight hours despite increasing humidity values.

Late tonight...thunderstorm chances will begin to increase across
parts of eastern Oklahoma ahead of an approaching dryline and
upper level storm system. Storms late tonight are not expected to
be severe...however coverage of thunderstorms and severe
potential will increase during the day Friday.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain
         Potential...Fire Weather Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...Severe Thundertorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY Through WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage
during the day Friday along and ahead of a dryline that will move
east across the region throughout the day. The primary severe
weather threats with these storms will be damaging straight line
winds and locally heavy rainfall, especially in far eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Additional storms may develop
during the overnight hours Friday as the upper level low moves
overhead. Storms associated with the upper low will have some
potential for quarter size hail. Thunderstorm chances will
decrease from west to east Saturday as the upper low clears the
area.

Additionally, there is potential for a rapid increase in fire
danger Friday afternoon across northeast Oklahoma mainly west of
Highway 75 behind the dryline. Gusty, dry southwest winds of 25 to
35 miles an hour during the afternoon will drop relative humidity
values to around 25% in these locations during the afternoon.

An active weather pattern will resume late Sunday and likely
will continue well into next week. This will result in multiple
chances for thunderstorms, along with some severe storm
potential.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.