Areal Flood Warning 13, NWS Tulsa, OK

406 
WGUS84 KTSA 052017
FLSTSA

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
317 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2017

OKC041-097-052026-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FA.W.0013.000000T0000Z-170505T2330Z/
/00000.0.DR.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Delaware OK-Mayes OK-
317 PM CDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...THE FLOOD WARNING FOR A DAM FLOODGATE RELEASE HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR WEST CENTRAL DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MAYES COUNTIES...

The GRDA has decreased water releases from the floodgates on 
Pensacola Dam. The water downstream will likely remain in channel 
with no additional flooding expected along the Grand-Neosho River.

LAT...LON 3641 9486 3636 9507 3647 9531 3651 9511

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
628 PM CDT Thu May 4 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Low/mid clouds will begin to clear early this evening with
decreasing winds.  Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through
the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 349 PM CDT Thu May 4 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Closed low continued to shift east northeast across Eastern
Arkansas with northerly flow spreading in over Eastern Oklahoma
and Northwest Arkansas on the backside of the low. In
response...breezy northerly surface winds and a scattered/broken
mid layer cloud deck were observed across the CWA this afternoon.

Through tonight...the closed low is progged to lift into Kentucky
and Tennessee with continued northerly flow across Eastern
Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. A few isolated light rain showers
may be possible within this flow across far Eastern Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas before the low shifts far enough east. With
such isolated potential...will continue to keep pops below
mentionable criteria for these locations. Otherwise over the
CWA...cool conditions with lows in the 40s and northerly winds are
forecast tonight.

Low pressure system is forecast to continue to lift into the
northeast part of the CONUS...with another low pressure digging
southward along the West Coast over the weekend. Between these two
features...high pressure will set up over the Plains. This will
help to bring a temperature warming trend and a return of
dry conditions and southerly winds across the CWA for the
weekend. Latest model solutions continue to indicate this pattern
remaining in place through the first half of next week.
Thus...temperatures climbing back toward seasonal average with
highs in the 80s are forecast next week for the CWA.

At the far end of this forecast package...model solutions try to
break down the blocking pattern with the southwestern low lifting
into the Plains mid to late next week. Much uncertainty continues
between the models with the GFS much faster than the ECMWF. Will
continue with persistence of previous forecast and continue small
pops for now next Wednesday night/Thursday across the CWA.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
503 PM CDT Thu May 4 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
503 PM CDT Thu May 4 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Gusty north to northwest winds will diminish around sunset.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY through TUESDAY...No Hazards.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
An extended period of dry and warmer weather will prevail from
late this week through the early part of next week. The next storm
system will begin to affect the area around the middle of next
week bringing the next chance of thunderstorms.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.