Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
324 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

Cooler air has pushed quickly across the forecast area today, with
breezy north winds keeping highs in the 50s out west. Southeastern
counties still holding in the upper 70s as colder air has yet to
make it that far south.  Storms developing just to the south of the
area in Chase county are moving quickly northward, and fall apart
quite rapidly as they cross into the colder air north of boundary.
Think the area to watch will be those along and south of I35, where
there may be enough elevated instability left in the column to keep
a few storms going which develop in the richer air just to our
south. Window for stronger storms is generally over the next few
hours as the surface cold air continues to push southward and
deepen.

Meanwhile as the upper trof advances eastward, precipitation
chances continue under areas of deformation and broader synoptic
lift as the low swings from the Rockies over eastern Kansas through
mid day Tuesday. Rain chances clear from southwest through northeast
by Tuesday late afternoon. Don't anticipate much change in
temperatures from tonight into tomorrow, as once the clouds and rain
chances clear out, the cold advection remains in its place.  Lows
tonight from the low to middle 40s only rise toward 50 on Tuesday
afternoon. Brisk northwest winds will continue through tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

TRANSITIONING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE STORY
WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES. THE COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE,
LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY,
ALLOWING NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE USHERING COLDER, DRIER AIR.
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S AND
MINIMAL TD DEPRESSIONS SHOULD YIELD PATCHY, IF NOT AREAS OF FROST
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AREAS WEST OF A SENECA TO COUNCIL GROVE
LINE HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR FROST, AS CLOUD COVER WILL EXIT
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, YIELDING LIGHT WINDS
AND COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S. WARMING TREND BEGINS
THURSDAY AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSES EASTWARD, ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH
THE MIDDLE 70S. WE THEN TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES A SURFACE FRONT INTO THE CWA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY. WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH, A
STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

Concerns this TAF cycle are increasing winds and chances for rain,
along with lower CIGS as you go later in the period. Breezy from
the northeast initially, speeds and gusts increase this evening
and continue overnight, before prevailing lower CIGS and rain move
into the terminals for the remainder of the morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Baerg
AVIATION...67

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
323 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-102030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
323 PM CDT Mon Oct 9 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon and early
evening hours, mainly south of Interstate 35. Primary hazards
include large hail and damaging winds. Non-severe thunderstorms
are expected overnight across much of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Frost may develop in low-lying areas late Tuesday night and early
Wednesday morning northwest of a line from Council Grove to
Seneca.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
157 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

KSZ008-009-091930-
Republic-Washington-
157 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN REPUBLIC AND NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

At 157 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Agenda, moving north at 40 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cuba, Haddam, Mahaska and Agenda.

LAT...LON 4000 9709 3966 9731 3970 9749 4000 9741
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 200DEG 36KT 3973 9740

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
403 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

KSZ058-092145-
Coffey-
403 PM CDT MON OCT 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN COFFEY COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

At 403 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Gridley, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Burlington, New Strawn, Gridley and John Redmond Reservoir.

LAT...LON 3822 9596 3832 9591 3819 9558 3804 9572
      3804 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 215DEG 19KT 3800 9593

Baerg