Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
628 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

Surface analysis this afternoon indicates a front draped
southwestward from the middle MO Valley to west-central KS.
Trajectories around an anticyclone positioned well east of the
forecast area are encouraging the return of rich boundary-layer
moisture ahead of the front and east of a diffuse pre-frontal trough
extending from west-central KS to northeast NM. Insolation on the
warm side of the front and east of the surface trough has continued
to support an erosion of antecedent convective inhibition across
western parts of the area. As a result, billow-cloud structures on
the warm side of the front continue transitioning to more agitated
cumulus fields with embedded horizontal convective roll structures
amidst middle 60s to near 70F dewpoints -- from south-central KS
extending as far northeast as Clay Center and Abilene. Visible
satellite loops continue highlighting the boundary-layer static
stability reduction as billow-cloud formations transition to more
cellular cumulus structures and small horizontal convective rolls.
The initiation of deeper convection is occurring along the front
from north-central KS to southwest KS, and will continue into the
early evening hours. The convection will likely develop into a
broken squall line as stronger deep ascent ahead of a mid-level
trough overtakes the buoyant pre-frontal air. This activity will
progress across the region through the evening, with damaging
winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes possible -- primarily in
the 6-11 PM time frame. The Flood Watch will continue across
northern parts of the forecast area as a period of heavy rain will
be likely. Storms will move east of the area by early Saturday
morning, with lingering showers and cooler temperatures behind the
front.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

Quieter weather anticipated for most of the extended period as
upper troughing begins to deepen across the intermountain west
region. Sfc cyclone builds across Colorado through Sunday with a
warm front stretching from west to east across the CWA. Upper
forcing and precip chances associated with the mid level trough
axis arrives by Monday evening. Model trends with the GFS and
ECMWF are fairly consistent with the wave placement, warranting
the likely pops during the period. Instability is weak with the
slow moisture return into the region so thunderstorm chances are
limited. Strong caa behind the boundary on Tuesday along with
lingering showers and cloud cover progs highs in the upper 50s to
lower 60s for much of the CWA. The cooler airmass appears fairly
shallow with the southerly flow returning for the remainder of the
week and temps recovering back into the 70s. Overnight lows are
mostly in the upper 40s to lower 50s with the exception of
Wednesday morning. With the sfc ridge axis directly overhead and
the unmodified cool airmass in place, could easily see upper 30s
creeping into the northern half of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

Monitoring the frontal boundary and line of TSRA anticipated to
impact KMHK between 02Z and 05Z with KTOP and KFOE being in the
05Z to 08Z time frame. Predominant MVFR conditions are expected
with the heavier convection lower categories to IFR mentioned in a
Tempo group. Southerly winds veer to the west behind the boundary,
remaining gusty enough to preclude mention of LLWS. Post frontal
high end IFR to low end MVFR is consistent between short term
forecast soundings, showing drier air quickly clearing the cloud
deck in the mid to late morning.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ008>012-020>024-
034>036.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cohen
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
319 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>039-054-072030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Lyon-
319 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to spread
eastward during the 6 PM to 11 PM time frame this evening.
Widely scattered damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two
will be possible. Isolated hail to the size of quarters may also
occur. The most likely area affected will be along and west of a
line from Seneca to Emporia.

A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of northeast and north
central Kansas through tonight north and west of a line from
Hiawatha to Manhattan and Abilene. The combination of heavy
rainfall over the last few days, coupled with the possibility of
1 to 2 more inches of rain today and tonight, may lead to
flooding in areas of poor drainage and along small streams and
rivers.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed across portions of
north-central and northeast Kansas this evening.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

KSZ040-055-056-058-059-072030-
Douglas-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
319 PM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms with locally strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall
will move across the area late this evening into the overnight
hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Cohen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
531 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

KSZ010-011-062300-
Nemaha-Marshall-
531 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN NEMAHA AND
NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 531 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles south of Summerfield, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Summerfield.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
northeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3999 9605 3986 9640 3993 9648 4000 9639
      4000 9606
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 233DEG 35KT 3993 9637

Drake

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
745 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     GLASCO                  39.36N 97.84W
10/06/2017  E60 MPH          CLOUD              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
844 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

KSZ009-070215-
Washington-
844 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 915 PM
CDT...

At 843 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles northeast of Haddam to near Linn.
Movement was east at 60 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Hanover, Greenleaf, Barnes, Morrowville and Hollenberg.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
north central Kansas.

LAT...LON 4000 9681 3966 9681 3970 9722 4000 9733
TIME...MOT...LOC 0143Z 276DEG 51KT 3989 9724 3969 9712

Cohen

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
947 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

KSZ021>023-035-036-038-070330-
Wabaunsee-Geary-Clay-Pottawatomie-Dickinson-Riley-
947 PM CDT FRI OCT 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DICKINSON...GEARY...
RILEY...NORTHWESTERN WABAUNSEE...POTTAWATOMIE AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAY
COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...

At 947 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles southwest of Leonardville to near Riley
to 5 miles west of Keats to near Junction City to 4 miles east of
Enterprise. Movement was east at 60 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Manhattan, Junction City, Wamego, Westmoreland, Blaine, Ogden,
Grandview Plaza, Chapman, Wakefield, Riley, Onaga, St. George,
Milford, Leonardville, Olsburg, Louisville, Randolph, Wheaton,
Milford Lake and Keats.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central, north central, northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3954 9651 3952 9617 3942 9612 3925 9620
      3894 9643 3893 9708 3914 9699 3931 9704
TIME...MOT...LOC 0247Z 247DEG 54KT 3933 9694 3931 9686 3921 9682 3907
9686 3890 9703

Skow